A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Jul 5, 2022

Ukraine Invasion Inspires Revised NATO Strategy To Deter Russia

NATO has been reminded of its reason for being - and is arming, training and preparing accordingly. 

For Russia, the doctrine of unintended consequences could not be clearer. JL 

Mick Ryan reports in ABC:

The NATO Strategic Concept, issued periodically since 1949, describes how NATO and its constituent nations will respond to the challenges, opportunities, and threats to their security and defence. Russian aggression is central to the security challenges of contemporary Europe. These strategic challenges must drive greater investment in the military, intelligence, and industrial aspects of European defence.In the short term it underpins support for Ukraine. The invigoration of NATO is also good for Ukraine in the medium to long term, resulting in increased investment in European industrial capacity, (to) underpin Ukraine's transition from a Soviet equipped military to a NATO standard.

This week, the countries of the NATO alliance — as well as observer nations such as Australia and Japan — met in Madrid for their annual summit.

These meetings are expressions of unity within the alliance. For many years, while they have featured important discussions, the alliance has largely been in search of a purpose.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine appears to provide a renewed sense of unity and purpose. It has saved the alliance from becoming the "brain dead" institution that Emmanuel Macron described it as in 2019.

There were two important outcomes from this year's summit. First, the accession protocols for Finland and Sweden to join NATO were endorsed by the members of the alliance, after overcoming Turkish concerns.

It is highly unlikely these two nations would have joined the alliance without Russia's brutal invasion of Ukraine. It is yet another of the consequences that Putin surely did not anticipate when planning his lightning war on his southern neighbour.

The second key outcome of the summit, and perhaps the more crucial, was the agreement to a new strategic concept. The NATO Strategic Concept, issued periodically since 1949, describes how NATO and its constituent nations will respond to the challenges, opportunities, and threats to their security and defence.

The development of the new concept was an outcome of the 2021 NATO Summit and is the first update of the NATO Strategic Concept since 2010. This new version is a recognition of the fundamental changes in the global security environment in the past decade.

Space to play or pause, M to mute, left and right arrows to seek, up and down arrows for volume.
Play Video. Duration: 31 seconds
War in Ukraine has made NATO stronger and more united says Joe Biden

Russia at the centre

Recognising that the Euro-Atlantic area is "not at peace", Russian aggression is described as central to the security challenges of contemporary Europe.

Like previous documents, the concept also recognises other transnational threats including terrorism and climate change.

And for the first time, China is included as striving "to subvert the rules-based international order, including in the space, cyber & maritime domains". 

The concept also acknowledges the alignment of Russia and China as a threat that is "counter to our values and interests".

The new strategic concept will have impacts on European nations, as well as the conduct of the war in Ukraine. And, it will even have an influence on Indo-Pacific security and the security of Australia.

For Europe, the agreement on these strategic challenges must drive greater investment in the military, intelligence, and industrial aspects of European defence. Many members of NATO are yet to spend even 2 per cent of GDP on their defence, having relied on the Americans for several generations.

However, the nature and scale of the threats posed by Russia, China and climate change means that every nation will need to increase their spending.

Germany, as Europe's largest economy (and spending only 1.44 per cent of GDP on defence), must lead the way in this regard. If Germany, Italy, Canada, and other small spenders don't step up financially, this new Strategic Concept is dead on arrival.

What does it mean for Ukraine?

For Ukraine, there are several potential outcomes of the summit and the new concept. In the short term, it provides the strategic narrative that underpins support to Ukraine. Additionally, the summit declaration also reaffirms NATO's "Open Door Policy".

This holds out hope for new members joining NATO's alliance. Not yet Ukraine, but perhaps even this is possible in the future.

The invigoration of NATO at the summit is also good for Ukraine in the medium to long term. It will hopefully result in increased investment in European industrial capacity, which will underpin Ukraine's transition from a Soviet equipped military to a NATO standard.

By any measure, this is a massive undertaking. Even in peacetime, this transition to NATO equipment and munitions would be a challenge. Doing so while defending against Russia is extraordinarily difficult.

The support from NATO — from its military stocks and from enhanced industrial production — will be critical for Ukraine.

Recognition for Australia

Finally, what of the impact on Australia of the NATO summit and its new strategic concept? The presence of Australia was recognition of our nation as an important security partner for NATO.

The inclusion of China as a threat in the strategic concept is an acknowledgement of Australia's resistance to Chinese coercion and military aggression.

Importantly, NATO has accepted that threats to European security don't just manifest on its borders. While China might be geographically distant from Europe, it's economic, military, intelligence and propaganda expansion in the past two decades is now viewed as a threat to Europe's democratic systems.

Because of this, we should expect to see greater engagement of NATO countries in our region beyond the US, France, and the UK.

This year's NATO summit, and its new strategic concept, represent a reinvigoration of the alliance. It now possesses renewed purpose for the 21st century.

NATO has a clear focus on deterring and responding to the coercion and military aggression of the techno-authoritarian regimes in Europe and Asia.

Let's hope that action and finances accompany the fine words of last week.

The future of Ukraine, Europe and the democracies of the Indo-Pacific will depend on it.

0 comments:

Post a Comment