Ukraine ATACMS Strike On Bryansk Has Delayed Russian Kursk Offensive

The Russian counteroffensive in Kursk was already struggling due to savage Ukrainian resistance. But the long range missile and drone strikes on Russian supply depots and command centers has delayed the assault by as much as four months due to shortages of ammunition and weapons resulting in underequipped troops. JL

Decimus reports in Daily Kos:

The strike on the Russian positions in Bryansk oblast not only dealt a major blow to Russian materiel for their Sever (“Northern”) Group of forces but in addition to the drone attacks a few weeks ago on Russian munitions depots in Tikhoretsk and Toropets, Russian supplies for their Kursk counteroffensive have been severely affected. The destruction of Russian arsenals in the Bryansk region has delayed Russia’s timeline for eliminating the Ukrainian foothold in the Kursk region. Initially, Russia planned to do so by October 1, then moved the date to October 14, and has now postponed it to February 1.

The results of Ukraine’s quick action after the lifting of restrictions on use of Western missiles on targets in Russia proper are still coming in.  But there’s little doubt as to how shockingly effective the strike on the Russian positions in Bryansk oblast was.  Not only did it deal a major blow to Russian materiel for their Sever(“Northern”) Group of forces but as an adjunct to the spectacular drone attacks a few weeks ago on Russian munitions depots in Tikhoretsk and Toropets, Russian supplies for their much ballyhooed Kursk counteroffensive has been severely affected.

Any new supplies for the Sever Group will have to come from somewhere else.  Your guess is as good as mine.  But with winter fast approaching and the multi-pronged Russian movement deep into Donetsk oblast(and now parts of Zaporizhia) already reduced to only inching forward and facing localized tactical counterattacks from Ukraine, any rerouting/shifting of supplies and resetting overall logistics to help the Sever Group will take time, mess up Russian operational timelines as well as possibly limit operations of the Russian Center Group focused on Donetsk and Zaporizhia

Dmytro Zhmailo, co-founder and executive director of the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation discusses this in Espreso online:

"The warehouses in the Bryansk region of the 67th Missile and Artillery Directorate of the Russian Armed Forces were originally intended for the Sever troop grouping, which is attempting to counter the Ukrainian bridgehead in the Kursk region. To hinder their progress, we targeted the Tikhoretsk and Toropets warehouses with the drones a few weeks ago," Zhmailo explained.

According to him, the destruction of Russian arsenals in the Bryansk region has delayed Russia’s timeline for eliminating the Ukrainian foothold in the Kursk region. Initially, Russia planned to do so by October 1, then moved the date to October 14, and has now postponed it to February 1.

global.espreso.tv/...

Critically for Russian efforts in Kursk, the Ukrainian strike on Bryansk, if reports are to be credited, has in one fell swoop likely decapitated the leadership of the Russian formation there including attached senior North Korean officers.  Espreso provides additional insights on what this Ukrainian strike did and its wider implications:

The presence of such high-ranking personnel suggests that the casualties might not be limited to officers and one general.

global.espreso.tv/...

Outmanned and outgunned, Ukraine nevertheless continues to display incredible nimbleness in making maximum effective use of whatever advanced munitions her allies provide(sometimes with disheartening reticence).  Such tenacity, resilience and fighting spirit in the face of an aggressor military behemoth is to be truly admired.