A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Jan 20, 2025

Ukraine Confuses Russian Air Defenses In Continuing Long Range Strikes

Not only have the Ukrainians demonstrated the ability to keep hitting strategic targets inside Russia with their own munitions, but they have done so by confusing Russian air defenses, which may indicate a weakening Kremlin capability for defending against drones, planes and missiles. JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack
:

It was a very impressive week with major attacks across Russia that were well coordinated, with different types of UAVs being used to confuse and distract Russian air defense—allowing for a number of high value targets to be hit. The Ukrainians have undertaken a complex operation, using dummy drones to force the Russians to activate their anti-air defenses and then follow up with the real attacking force. The heartening thing from the Ukrainian perspective is that they are able to keep it up at a heavy clip and have found a way to spoof Russian air defenses, hitting a wide range of targets.

It was a very impressive week—with major attacks across Russia. Those attacks were very well coordinated, with different types of UAVs being used to at least partly confuse and distract Russian air defense—allowing for a number of high value targets to be hit. In particular Ukraine seemed to be focussing on Russian fuel production.

This week not only did the attacks continue—they might even have been ramped up (stress on the might). On 14 January the Ukrainians claimed to have successfully attacked a range of targets across Russia which, in their own words, was the “most massive” attack Ukraine had launched so far.

Again, while we don’t have hard damage reports (and people should not overreact to pictures of fires—they can often look to be doing more damage than they are and the areas hit can be repaired more quickly), it does seem that a large range of targets were hit.

Once again, the Ukrainians seem to have undertaken a complex operation, using dummy drones to force the Russians to activate their anti-air defenses and then follow up with the real attacking force. Here is how one report on the subject described it.

Representatives of Ukraine’s 14th Separate Regiment of Unmanned Aerial Systems confirmed that decoy drones were used to distract and overwhelm Russian air defenses, creating openings for missiles to hit primary targets. Once defenses were compromised, some targets were then struck by additional waves of long-range drones

And once again, there seems to have been a heavy emphasis on Russian fuel production and its chemical industry. One target the Ukrainians specifically mentioned was the refinery at Saratov (picture below).

Атака 14 січня. На Саратовському НПЗ уражено два резервуари: супутниковий знімок

Here is a description of that, and some other of the facilities targeted by the Ukrainians.

Saratov was just one of the places that came under massive attack. Videos shared on Russian social media showed a significant fire at an industrial site.

In Engels, where a fuel depot had been extinguished just a day earlier after burning for five days, another drone strike reportedly ignited the same facility. Russian Telegram channels reported at least two new hits.

Drones also targeted a plant in Kazan, the capital of Tatarstan. This facility is a strategic site producing materials for military equipment, weapons, and components.

Additionally, Russians reported a missile attack on Bryansk, including strikes on the Bryansk chemical plant and the Kremniy plant.

(Boy—one could do a detailed piece comparing these targeting choices with that of the Anglo-American Combined Bombing Offensive in World War II—that will have to wait).

Anyway, the attack announced on the 14th did not end things. Just last night the Ukrainians claimed to have launched another round of attacks on oil depots in Russia’s Tula and Kaluga oblasts. No early reports of damage—but there definitely seems to have been some fires.

So the heartening thing from the Ukrainian perspective is not any one of these attacks, its that they seem to be able to keep it up—and at a pretty heavy clip. They seem to have found a way to spoof Russian air defenses, and they are hitting a wide range of targets.

Overall, added with a more robust sanctions regime—this is one of the worst period for the Russian war economy since the conflict started.

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