Evidence Reveals the Russian Military's Effectiveness Is Declining. Fast.

A host of measures across a range of operational indices reveal that the Russian military's effectiveness is declining - and that the pace of that degradation is accelerating. 

From the plummeting ratio of casualties to territorial gains, the de-mechanization evident in disappearing armor and rising use of aging civilian cars to the virtual evaporation of Russian naval and air force activity, the Kremlin's once vaunted military might has been decimated by the war in Ukraine. The question is which will be reduced faster - the Russian army or Putin's demands. JL

Yevhen Dykyi reports in New Voice of Ukraine:

The state of the Russian army is such that over the past year, they’ve managed to take only Velyka Novosilka - with a pre-war population of 5,000. That’s their trophy. Kremlin losses now surpass any other year of this war. And the ratio between losses and territorial gains is getting worse. They’re advancing by meters, sacrificing regiments. In the latest loss report, one tank is listed, not because Ukraine's anti-tank weapons don't work, but because Moscow has almost run out. Kherson is not occupied because the Russians were driven out. Zaporizhzhia is not occupied because the Russians were stopped there, their effectiveness below what it was six months ago, let alone two years ago and fast degrading.

The weakening on the front may happen literally in the coming days — if, through the joint efforts of Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, the leadership of our country is forced to sign a peace deal that would be a thinly veiled capitulation. I truly want to believe that this won’t happen.

 

And I have reason for hope. Ironically, part of that hope comes from the Kremlin itself, because the conditions they’re proposing are so unacceptable that I still find it hard to imagine anyone in our leadership daring to order our army to withdraw from unoccupied territories.

Yet that’s exactly what the Russians are demanding now. They are refusing even the terms that would, in fact, be favorable for them — such as freezing the front along the current line. Instead, they want more. And the fact that they want more is, paradoxically, encouraging.

Because, in reality, it would be a far worse scenario for us if — out of respect for Trump — they agreed not to pursue territories they physically cannot capture anyway. We know perfectly well that Kherson is not under occupation because the Russians were driven out, because we liberated it, and because they cannot cross the Dnipro. And Zaporizhzhia is not under occupation because they were stopped there — not out of Russian goodwill.

We understand that. But the problem is, it's unclear whether Trump understands that. Resisting the joint pressure of the Kremlin and the White House is a monumental challenge. I don't envy our president — I wouldn't want to be in his position right now.

I can't even imagine the pressure of being squeezed by two nuclear powers at once. One is a diminished superpower, which we’ve already largely ground down, but which still maintains a 600,000-strong army on our soil. The other is the most powerful nation in the world.

When they both press at once, it’s frightening. But regardless, we must resist. Signing the “bad peace” they’re offering — in truth, capitulation — is absolutely unacceptable. Not even because of the territories being demanded, which Russia couldn’t take and clearly can’t take now, but for a deeper, more alarming reason.

If we sign such a peace, it will not hold. It will collapse — quickly. And when the war resumes, we won’t have a second chance.

That’s why our task now is to hold firm. To resist.

So what happens if we do? Then we’re looking at war continuing at least through summer and into the fall. Realistically, it will go on longer. But by autumn, the war will resemble what we’re seeing now: Russian attempts to advance.

I recently watched another report from Western media, citing insiders in the Kremlin. Supposedly, Putin is firmly convinced that if he’s not forced to sign a front freeze, then by fall his army will deliver him Kherson, Zaporizhzhya, and perhaps even Sumy, Kharkiv, and Dnipropetrovsk. It seems he genuinely believes this. Judging by their behavior, the composition of their delegation, and the absurdity of their proposals — it looks that way.

Apparently, Vladimir Vladimirovich has never actually approached the frontlines. So he might truly believe his army will hand him these regions by fall.

But reality is quite different. The state of this still-large, 600,000-strong army is such that over the past year, they’ve managed to take only Velyka Novosilka — a settlement with a pre-war population of five thousand. That’s their trophy for the year.

At the same time, their losses over the past year are greater than in any other year of this full-scale war. Even conservative estimates put annual losses above 200,000. And the ratio between losses and territorial gains is getting worse every week. They’re advancing literally by meters, sacrificing regiments daily. Whatever Putin imagines — this is unsustainable.

Here’s another detail worth noting: in the latest report on enemy losses, just one tank is listed. Not because our anti-tank weapons stopped working. No — it’s because the battlefield has changed. At the start of the war, tank columns rushed at us and we had to find ways to stop and burn them. Now, spotting a Russian tank is like spotting a rare beast. You have to hunt for it. First find it, then destroy it — often with drones.

And finding that “rare beast” is getting harder. Because they’ve almost run out. They've even resorted to donkeys. Yes, donkeys — not a joke. It’s a real indicator of how dire their tech situation is.

Meanwhile, Trump is helping us see reality more clearly — albeit unintentionally. His latest claim was that “Putin would have been in Kyiv in five hours if his tanks hadn’t gotten stuck in the mud.” We all remember spring 2022. There was no mud. Tanks burned on dry asphalt. The only “mud” was in the skies over Hostomel, where a hundred Russian helicopters were downed.

That “mud” — that was us. Tens of thousands of Ukrainians who, in the first hours of war, got machine guns under their passports, tied yellow ribbons for lack of uniforms, and went — in their own cars — to Irpin, Hostomel, Vyshhorod. That’s the real force that stopped the Russians.

But for Trump, that doesn’t fit. In his worldview, Putin is invincible. Ukrainians couldn’t possibly stop him. So if facts contradict this belief — the facts must be wrong. It’s easier for him to imagine tanks stopped by some swamp than by Ukrainian resistance.

And of course, with that worldview — where Putin wasn’t stopped by us but by mud — it makes sense that Trump sees no Ukrainian trump cards. That’s exactly the position from which he’s applying pressure in these negotiations.

The only real response is to show we do have trump cards — our army and our rear.

If our army is still playing its winning hand, our rear is still hesitant. And that worries me deeply — the growing mood of detachment.

I keep hearing: “Why donate? They'll sign something soon and it’ll all stop.” Or: “Why follow the war agenda? Just a few more weeks and it’s over.”

We need to snap out of it. Because it’s not ending now. It can only end now if we completely surrender — and there are no military grounds for that. The sooner we accept this, the sooner we switch back from counting down to peace, and instead count the “orcs” neutralized until peace — the faster we’ll get real peace.

Peace will come when the Russian army can no longer fight. That’s the formula. Not Istanbul — Pokrovske, Sumy, Zaporizhzhia. That’s where peace is decided.

 

And if Putin really believes his army is still unstoppable — who knows? Maybe it’s because of the new Ground Forces commander they just appointed, replacing the old one who had commanded since 2014. Perhaps they sent the previous one to the Shoigu Club — a sort of exile for failed but loyal generals.

Maybe Putin believes this new guy will fix everything. That now, finally, they’ll break through and take region after region.

But again — reality is different. Reality is objective. It’s about personnel, equipment, and capacity. And the picture is this:

They may try to push hard until fall. They’ll be ordered to break through. But there will be no point. And by fall, their losses will turn into something else — into total degradation. It’s already happening.

This army is still dangerous because of its size. But its combat effectiveness is far below what it was six months ago, let alone two years ago. It is degrading, fast.

So by fall, that degradation will become total. The question is — what shape will we be in at that moment?

Will we be exhausted, barely holding the line, just waiting to say: “See? You can’t advance anymore. Let’s talk”?

Or will we have prepared? Will we have carried out real corps reform, fixed mobilization, ensured proper replenishment?

Right now, our weakest point is numbers. Russians fight worse — but they still have more people. If we balance that even slightly, then when their collapse comes in the fall, we could switch roles. We could go on the offensive — like we did in fall 2022.

But all this is decided in the rear. By us. The army is doing its job. Corps reform is underway. New tactics, strategies, industrial production — all in motion. But the industry needs money — our taxes. And the army needs people — our mobilization.

What happens next depends on us. The rear.

And here, honestly, I still see the wrong mindset dominating. Not the only one — but the prevailing one. At the front, everyone knows peace isn’t coming now. The “orcs” weren’t ordered to stop for May 8, for Easter — never. The attacks never paused for even an hour. So it’s clear: this will end only when Russia physically can’t go on.

Yet in the background, I keep seeing these enchanted glances toward Istanbul. Naive hopes that Trump will force Putin to make peace — without even asking: what kind of peace, and at whose expense?

We still can’t seem to shake off Trump’s shadow. But I believe we must. And the sooner we stop living in the denial stage, the better.