Why Ukraine's Defeat of Russia At Dobropillia/Pokrovsk Is War's Most Revealing

Almost six weeks ago, Russian forces around Pokrovsk - evidently to their surprise - succeeded in infiltrating some Ukrainian lines at Dobropillia. What they did not and could not do was exploit it. In fact, they succeeded only in giving the far more nimble, adaptive and intelligent Ukrainians an opportunity not just to choke off the gain, but to turn it into a stinging defeat that affected another of the Kremlin's looming failed offensives. 

The reality, increasingly is that the Russian military in Ukraine is a spent force without the logistics, troop strength, armor, air power or leadership to win. They are hanging on by paying a huge price in blood in hopes that Putin will be able to convince President Trump to let him have his way. But Trump does not like losing or failing. He only wants to be seen backing winners. And his hand-picked Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair is telling him the Russians aren't winning. This may not be enough for the US president to abandon Putin, whom he evidently admires, but neither is he willing to back a lost cause like the Russian military in Ukraine. Which is why Ukraine's speedy and victorious recovery - and Russia's fumble - were so revealing. JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in his substack:

The Ukrainians have done remarkably this summer. The Russians have not taken a town of any size. Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, even Toretsk - scenes of fighting for over a year - are still in Ukrainian hands. The Russians on August 11 infiltrated Ukraine's lines. (But) the response ended up being the important story. The Ukrainian military remains far more nimble. The Russians had not prepared for success. They had neither the forces or logistics with which to exploit the surprise and stopped dead. The Ukrainians assembled a force in just a few days, deployed it to a new region, launched assaults and carved up the Russian salient—all while the Russians were frozen. The Ukrainians were more nimble, reacting quickly to the unexpected. By last week, there were Ukrainian counterattacks across the front.

The Ukrainians have done remarkably this summer. The Russians have not taken a single town of any size, Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, even Toretsk—which have been the scene of fighting for over a year (in some cases years) are still either entirely or partly in Ukrainian hands. In fact, last week there were Ukrainian counterattacks in a number of areas across the front. 

 

On August 11 reports started circulating that the Russians had staged a major “breakthrough” north of Pokrovsk—in the region the Ukrainian village of Dopropillia.

The reporting immediately described this operation of a sign of continuing successful Russia adaptation on the battlefield and a further sign that Ukrainian military morale and performance was dangerously close to failure. As a reminder, this is how the New York Times described the Russian advance on August 12.

Russia’s recent push near Pokrovsk, in the Donetsk region, sends a stark warning that Moscow’s forces remain capable of making rapid gains on the battlefield. It comes as Mr. Putin is expected to present Mr. Trump with major demands during Friday’s talks, which could include an insistence that Ukraine cede the part of the Donetsk region that Kyiv still holds.

Pokrovsk, which was once a critical logistical hub for Ukrainian forces in the east, is now semiencircled from the northeast to the southwest. Ukrainian troops must pass through a narrow 10-mile corridor to enter the city, leaving them vulnerable to drone attacks.

Russian forces are likely to try to tighten their noose around the city to force Ukrainian troops to withdraw, a tactic they have successfully used to capture other cities.

The Wall Street Journal on the same day portrayed the Ukrainian military in terrible shape in terms of motivation and command.

It was such an easy and lazy narrative to write at the time. I mean, look the Russians had made a map change that was shocking, there had to be underlying causes that were signs of Russian strength and Ukrainian weakness—right? Plus, the analytical community was talking about possible Russian operational breakthroughs and Ukrainian collapses.

Well, here is the rub, the response by both sides to the Russian infiltration ended up being the really important story and revealed the exact opposite to what these first stories were claiming. The Ukrainian military remains by far more nimble and the Russian military did not know how to adapt when presented with a new situation. In the end this engagement has been a real example of Ukrainian success (though I have not seem many/any stories that are willing to make that case).

What happened? Well, the Russians on August 11 did take the Ukrainians by surprise and were able to infiltrate their lines (the Ukrainians are trying to man their front lines with as few soldiers as possible to reduce casualties). The Russians might even have succeeded more than they expected and made one fast, rapid advance.

However, what happened from that point was actually more revealing. The Russians clearly had not prepared for such a success and seemed to freeze in place. All the talk about operational breakthroughs was, of course, pie in the sky pro-Russian narrative, as the Russian had neither the forces or logistics in the region to take advantage of their success. They had nothing with which to exploit the breakthrough and stopped dead.

On the other hand, it was the Ukrainians who were reacting with remarkable quickness, on the hoof it might be said, to deal with the unexpected crisis. One of the best units in the Ukrainian military, part of the Azov Brigade, was immediately sent as part of a force given the task of stopping the Russians. They did more than that—soon cutting up the Russian advance into smaller, unsupported salients. Here was the map on August 15—in only a few days the Ukrainians had started to master the situation.

And from there on, it was the Russians on the back foot. It seems now that there is not much left of the original Russian advance. Russian losses are also claimed to be high. Here is the map today, the salient has been squeezed more and the Ukrainians have even seized more territory at the base. Note, Deep State often does not show Ukrainian advances until well after they have occurred to protect the units doing the assaults.

Zelensky claimed yesterday that in this operation Ukrainian forces recaptured 170 square kms fully from the Russians and have control over a total of 330 square kilometres that were originally lost. Here is the Ukrainian official report of what he said.

"Regarding our counteroffensive actions in the Dobropillia and Pokrovsk areas. The Russians wanted to surround us, but it is our Armed Forces that are doing everything there to destroy the enemy. Today, about 330 kilometers are under our control, 160 have been liberated, and more than 170 have been cleared of the enemy," Zelensky said.

He forecasts that the enemy will focus its main efforts in this sector.

“We understand that this is where they will now transfer their personnel to secure their positions. They have been constantly adding to their forces there because this was their main offensive – the Dobropillia and Pokrovsk sectors. And now they have brought in the 61st Marine Brigade, realizing that they are losing a large number of their troops,” the President said.

He noted that he considers such actions by the Defense Forces to be a success.

So why is this the most “revealing” development? Well, because both militaries were faced with what seems to have been an unexpected development. It was a situation of direct comparison of capabilities. Neither had much time to plan for the situation that they were in (though you would think that the Russians would have at least had some plan about what to do if they succeeded). As such, both had to react quickly and plan on the move. In the end there was clearly one military that could do this, the Ukrainian, and one that could not, the Russian.

The Ukrainians were able to assemble a force in just a few days, deploy it to a region where it was not, launch assaults and start carving up the Russian salient—all while the Russians were frozen.

It reemphasizes the basic point that while the Ukrainian military still has its problem (and still has many less effective units) it remains a more reflexive, cerebral and effective military force than the Russian army. It did something that the Russians could not undertake.

How do we know that? Well we have a very interesting comparator. If you look back to the unexpected Ukrainian invasion of Russia in 2024—it took the Russians most of a year, and ten (maybe tens) of thousands of North Korean troops to recapture the ground. It was a slow, ponderous and bloody response.

So the big story of the last month shows why Ukraine retains the capability to win this war.