For Ukraine and Russia, Pokrovsk's Symbolism Now Surpasses Military Value

The current reality is that Pokrovsk has no real military or economic value. It has been reduced by fighting to a smoking heap of rubble. In addition to which, it is a gray zone, not controlled by either force. Militarily, it is a drain into which competing forces are drawn. Economically, whoever eventually ends up controlling it will have to spend tens or hundreds of millions cleaning and then rebuilding it. 

So its current value, such as it is, rests in its symbolism, both as a rejection of the other side's claims and as an affirmation of its own. It arguably means more to Putin because of the claims he has made about it, but his army's chronic inability to take the city also makes it a constant source of embarrassment which undermines his claims of power. JL

Kathryn Diss reports in ABC.AU:

Ukraine has seen value in holding on because it has worn-down Russia's army which has had to divert troops from other key frontline positions. For Ukraine, holding Pokrovsk is demonstrating its resilience and justifying to its Western allies that they should continue to supply weapons and financial aid. For Putin, taking Pokrovsk sends a political signal to the West: it emphasises his argument that it is inevitable Russia will control Donbas. (But) "Pokrovsk is not controlled by the Russian army and not by the Ukrainian army, this is a grey zone. If you're playing strategy games, you have your camp, the enemy camp and a neutral camp. Pokrovsk is now a neutral camp, and you send units to this camp so it not controlled by the Russians." 

Russian President Vladimir Putin this week claimed Moscow's biggest battlefield gain in close to two years.

He declared his soldiers had captured the eastern Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk, marking the culmination of a bloody 20-month battle.

Ukrainian officials, however, deny it has fallen, and claim the country's troops still control the north.

While military analysts expect the city will eventually succumb to the Russians, how significant that prize would be is up for debate.

It will not, many argue, be a decisive blow that changes the entire trajectory of the war.

What it could do, though, is damage Ukrainian resolve and potentially help Mr Putin find favour with American negotiators trying to end the conflict, which has raged since Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022.

A Ukrainian soldier stands watch near Pokrovsk last month. (Reuters)

The battle for Pokrovsk epitomises the state of the war as a whole, where incremental Russian territorial gains have come at extraordinary human cost.

There are several reasons why Ukraine held on so long defending it and why Russia has thrown all it can at taking it.

After Moscow claimed the nearby fortress town of Avdiivka in early 2024, capturing Pokrovsk became a priority.

The industrial city of 60,000 people was important before the war. A mine just outside of town was the largest supplier of coking coal in the country.

Its location is what makes it pivotal to the war.

Situated on high ground, 30 kilometres from the frontline, Pokrovsk provided a strategic advantage to the defending Ukrainian army on the eastern flank.

It is also positioned on a critical road and rail juncture to the large city of Dnipro, which Kyiv used to ferry frontline troops with critical supplies such as weapons and food.

Zoom out even further and for the Kremlin, capturing Pokrovsk would take it one step closer to securing the entire industrial Donbas region, a key aim for Putin when the war started.

Russia sustaining massive casualties

In September last year, I was in Pokrovsk as fighting became fierce. Artillery fire felt frightfully close and the locals left were fleeing.

The train station was reminiscent of the early days of war as its residents fled holding only the possessions they could carry — everything from beloved pets to family heirlooms.

At the time, military analysts predicted the city would fall within weeks, if not days. That didn't eventuate.

What did was a slow, grinding skirmish as Kremlin soldiers inched towards the city.

Ukraine has seen value in holding on because it has considerably worn-down Russia's army which has had to divert troops from other key frontline positions.

In October alone, Moscow lost 25,000 soldiers to the battle, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

A resident is evacuated from Pokrovsk amid Russian attacks in November. (Reuters)

Capturing it is also central to Mr Putin's argument that he should be handed Ukraine's entire Donbas region as part of any peace deal, even the land Kyiv still occupies.

It is practically impossible to know exactly what is happening on the ground with inside information from both armies.

The only proof Moscow has taken the city is a photo of two Russian soldiers holding up a flag in the city square.

The proclamation came as a United States delegation flew into Moscow for talks with the Russian president at the Kremlin.

Property developer-turned-Trump special envoy Steve Witkoff led the discussions alongside the US president's son-in-law Jared Kushner.

"I think the Russians definitely have a foothold in Pokrovsk ... but it's very doubtful that at this point they have captured the entire town," Peter Zalmayev, a Ukrainian political commentator and director at the Eurasia Democracy Institute, said.

"He's [Vladimir Putin] been scaremongering because he's felt this is quite effective with the Trump administration.

"They're very sceptical about Ukraine's chances and Putin's nuclear blackmail and the successes of the Russian army — they fall on some receptive ears there.

"I've been very disheartened to see how Donald Trump is ready to switch off and essentially give up on its ally."

This picture, released by Russia's military on December 1, shows soldiers claiming to have captured the city. (Supplied: Russian Defence Ministry via Reuters)

Control of Pokrovsk a 'grey zone'

It has become an increasingly difficult situation trying to reach anyone on the ground.

Seventeen kilometres from the frontline, with a Starlink strapped to the roof of his car, a former soldier with the call sign Enterprise described the battle as a "grey zone".

"Pokrovsk is not controlled by the Russian army and not by the Ukrainian army, this is a big grey zone," he said.

When the war broke out in February 2022, Enterprise was on the front line.

He now supports his brigade as a volunteer, running troops supplies of everything from food to weapons.

He said to survive, he uses his car as a "giant generator".

"If you're playing strategy games, it's like now you have two camps, your camp and enemy camp and neutral camp and Pokrovsk is now neutral camp, and you send units to this camp to conquest it, not controlled by our side or Russian side," he said.

Ukrainian soldiers fire towards Russian positions near Pokrovsk in November. (Reuters: Anatolii Stepanov)

The former soldier said delivering supplies to the front line had become almost impossible because improved drone technology has meant that the kill-zone has extended fivefold to 25km.

"We have problems with our logistics, how to deliver supplies to the frontline, we had to move back our anti-aerial defence unit who were previously closer to frontline.

While Moscow would have the average person believe capturing Pokrovsk would open the door to taking the entire Donbas, Ukraine has strong fortifications along the eastern flank.

"Kramatorsk is the strongest region with the defence lines, with protection fortifications and also our landscape, highlands at Donbas, so it will not be an easy walk," he said.

The regions Putin does not hold, but wants anyway

Donald Trump is expected to send his special envoy Steven Witkoff to Moscow this week to talk about a revised proposal for peace in Ukraine.

Claiming Pokrovsk does however allow Russia to consolidate control in Donetsk, part of its larger aim to take the entire Donbas region.

The city provides a strategic platform to move north toward Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, the two remaining Ukrainian-controlled cities in the region.

They have been fortified since 2014. For Ukraine to voluntarily leave those would deal a blow to the country's ability to resist any further aggression by the Russians.

"It will deal it a much more severe blow than the potential eventual loss of Pokrovsk," Mr Zalmayev said.

For Putin, taking Pokrovsk sends a political signal to the West: it cements and emphasises his argument that it is inevitable that Russia will eventually control the entire Donbas.

For Ukraine, holding or retaking Pokrovsk is key to demonstrating its resilience and justifying to its Western allies that they should continue to supply weapons and financial aid.