A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Feb 15, 2025

"Rookie Mistakes," Appeasement and Negotiating With Russia From A Weak Position

The initial performance of the Musk-Trump Administration in attempting to end the Russian-instigated war on Ukraine has been, to put it diplomatically, unimpressive. Within 24 hours of his first utterances, the new Defense Secretary, a former Fox News weekend commentator (eg, not prime time) with a record of alcoholism, sexual abuse and petty fraud, had been castigated for "rookie mistakes" by the chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, an ageing Republican from Mississippi not famous for being "woke." It got worse from there as the Secretary of State added to the confusion and the new Vice President had to retract his statement about American troops being sent to defend Ukraine's precious metals, which the US covets, while lecturing Europe's leaders on embracing neo-Nazis.

The overall impression, to no one's surprise, is that the Musk-Trump team, while possibly not enthusaistic about Putin invading Ukraine - and appalled that he screwed it up so badly - may want to make some unpopular imperial gains of its own (Greenland, Canada, the Panama Canal...) and clearly thinks there is more money to be made - its primary interest - from doing business with Moscow than by opposing it. Most dismaying to experienced experts is how ineptly they have managed the preliminary negotiations by virtually giving away key bargaining positions without getting anything in return. Which brings us to the point about appeasement. Europe paid heavilly for Britain's and France's appeasement of Hitler. The fear is that the world is about to be forced to pay again by appeasement of Putin, with China's Xi Jin Ping watching wolfishly. JL

Timothy Snyder reports in his substack
:

The war cannot be halted without Ukrainian and European agreement. Although wise heads expected the Russians to reach Kyiv in three days, the Russians were defeated at Kyiv. By the end of 2022 Ukraine had taken back half the territories Russia took in the first weeks. Russia was forced to seek help from China, Iran, and North Korea. Ukraine has destroyed much of the Russian armed forces. It is fulfilling the NATO mission on its own. It contributed to the fall of Assad in Syria and has held off chaos and war beyond its borders. The Musk-Trump desire for a quick resolution is likely to lead to unexpected consequences, for which the Americans will lack the patience. It is hard to imagine the Americans are well prepared for these meetings - although the Russians will be. Lower ranking officials are trying to qualify the appeasing concessions Trump and his secretaries of defense and state have made in public. 

Ukrainian Air Force Destroys Russian Kursk Drone Launch Base

The Ukrainian air force destroyed a Russian drone launch command center in Kursk oblast. 

As part of the constant competition between drone operators and defenders, the Russians are trying to use more drones deployed with wire guidance systems that are difficult to jam. As a result, Ukraine has stepped up its attacks on drone operator units. JL

Militarnyi reports:

Aircraft of the Air Force of Ukraine delivered a precision strike on an enemy object near the village of Yelizavetivka, Kursk region. The stronghold belonged to the 28th Rifle Battalion of the 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the Russian Armed Forces, which was used to launch drones to attack Ukrainian positions. The strike shows that the munitions explode close to each other, indicating the use of precision-guided aircraft munitions, and the explosion itself resembles that of a 1000-pound Mark 83 (460 kg) bomb.

DOGE Website Defaced Because Private Host Database Is Insecure

Sloppy, arrogant...and vulnerable. JL

Jess Weatherbed reports in The Verge:

The DOGE website created to document how Elon Musk’s team is eviscerating the US government is wide open for anyone to edit. doge.gov is pulling from a database that third parties can access, pushing unauthorized entries to the live website. At least two database entries have been added by one of the coders to say “this is a joke of a .gov site” and “THESE ‘EXPERTS’ LEFT THEIR DATABASE OPEN -roro.” Both pages are still visible hours after 404Media published its report. Developers say it “feels like it was completely slapped together” and doesn’t appear to be running on government servers. Earlier, the newly created waste.gov site was locked down after it was found displaying an unedited WordPress template.

Russian Attempts To Cross Oskil River On Makeshift Rafts At Kupianks Defeated

The Russians are trying anything to gain a few more meters before ceasefire negotiations freeze the battle line. In most sectors, as in Kupiansk, these attacks are failing. JL

Espreso Ukraine reports:

The Russians on boats and rafts are attempting to expand their foothold. Currently, the Russian grouping lacks armored support and stable logistics for supplying ammunition and equipment. This prevents them from securing positions for further assaults on Kupiansk. During a morning battle on Saturday, February 15, six Russian vehicles were disabled in this sector thanks to the coordinated efforts of various Ukrainian units. "The 77th Airmobile Brigade, the 1st Rapid Response Brigade, and the 429th Regiment Achilles were involved. Russian troops were detected in time, and through combined firepower, their assault was disrupted," 

Ukraine Agent Infiltrates Russia, Blows Up New Moscow Anti-Drone System

As Ukraine's drones become more powerful and far-reaching, even demonstrating the ability to return from bombing raids, the Kremlin has tried to invent systems to track and stop them. 

Their newest anti-drone system was positioned near Moscow. So a Ukrainian agent infiltrated Russia, travelled 300 miles through hostile territory - and blew it up, opening the way for more drone attacks on strategic targets. JL

David Axe reports in Forbes:

Russia developed one of the world’s most sophisticated anti-drone vehicles and deployed it to the Moscow area. “The military unit where the explosion occurred is responsible for the security of the air space over Moscow.” (So) Ukrainian intelligence sent an agent who blew up the Valdai radar and jamming system, clearing a path for unmanned aerial vehicles to strike Moscow. Ukraine is widening its deep strikes against Russian air bases, factories and oil facilities. It was a risky operation to plant explosives in the dead of night  in a densely populated region 300 miles from the front line in Ukraine. (But) raids on the Russian oil industry last month suppressed as much as 10% of the country’s petroleum production.

Feb 14, 2025

Ukraine's Position On Pokrovsk Front Has Improved As Counterattacks Succeed

A growing number of reports indicate that Ukrainian forces position on the Pokrovsk front has improved and that the Ukrainian command is more confident, despite the fact that Pokrovsk has been Russia's primary focus of attack and reinforcement.

 Devastating Russian losses of troops and equipment largely caused by Ukrainian drones and artillery are the primary reason for the Kremlin's setback. JL

New Voice of Ukraine reports:

The situation in the Pokrovsk sector has improved in recent days. Ukrainian forces reported retaking control of Pishchane, a village in the Pokrovsk district of Donetsk Oblast. The 425th Skala Assault Regiment showed the clearance of Russian forces from Pishchane. DeepState analysts confirmed that Ukrainian forces had regained positions in two areas of the Pokrovsk sector.

Why If Russia Couldn't Beat Ukraine In 2022, It Certainly Can't Do So Now

Ukraine is better armed, better supplied and better led than it has ever been before. It has repeatedly thwarted Russian attempts to gain significant territory - and continues to do so in Kursk, Pokrovsk, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia and the rest of the front. 

But Ukraine is also better positioned economically and politically. Despite well-founded concerns about Trump, the reality is that he wants and needs to sell more American oil and gas to Europe, which had previously relied on Russia. And Ukraine has both the transportation and storage capacity to assist with that in addition to its possession of rare earths critical to the US tech industry. So if Russia couldn't beat Ukraine when it had a decided asset and reputational advantage, it will not do so now that it has squandered those. JL 

Yevhenia Martynyiuk reports in Euromaidan Press:

Pointing to Russia’s depleted military resources and reliance on North Korean munitions “How do they expect to win?”Ukraine’s military transformation since 2014 is striking. While Putin’s willingness to accept a freeze on the war remains uncertain, Trump could play a decisive role through economic pressure. Europe has largely freed itself from Russian gas dependency, with American supplies filling the gap. This aligns with Trump’s economic interests which are to sell US oil and gas. Orban and Fico are destroying their political futures by pushing Russian gas because Trump needs to sell gas to Europe. Ukraine’s role could be significant, with its 30 billion cubic meters of gas storage capacity. "If they couldn't defeat us in 2022 - or in 2014 - how can they now?"