The initial performance of the Musk-Trump Administration in attempting to end the Russian-instigated war on Ukraine has been, to put it diplomatically, unimpressive. Within 24 hours of his first utterances, the new Defense Secretary, a former Fox News weekend commentator (eg, not prime time) with a record of alcoholism, sexual abuse and petty fraud, had been castigated for "rookie mistakes" by the chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, an ageing Republican from Mississippi not famous for being "woke." It got worse from there as the Secretary of State added to the confusion and the new Vice President had to retract his statement about American troops being sent to defend Ukraine's precious metals, which the US covets, while lecturing Europe's leaders on embracing neo-Nazis.
The overall impression, to no one's surprise, is that the Musk-Trump team, while possibly not enthusaistic about Putin invading Ukraine - and appalled that he screwed it up so badly - may want to make some unpopular imperial gains of its own (Greenland, Canada, the Panama Canal...) and clearly thinks there is more money to be made - its primary interest - from doing business with Moscow than by opposing it. Most dismaying to experienced experts is how ineptly they have managed the preliminary negotiations by virtually giving away key bargaining positions without getting anything in return. Which brings us to the point about appeasement. Europe paid heavilly for Britain's and France's appeasement of Hitler. The fear is that the world is about to be forced to pay again by appeasement of Putin, with China's Xi Jin Ping watching wolfishly. JL
The war cannot be halted without Ukrainian and European agreement. Although wise heads expected the Russians to reach Kyiv in three days, the Russians were defeated at Kyiv. By the end of 2022 Ukraine had taken back half the territories Russia took in the first weeks. Russia was forced to seek help from China, Iran, and North Korea. Ukraine has destroyed much of the Russian armed forces. It is fulfilling the NATO mission on its own. It contributed to the fall of Assad in Syria and has held off chaos and war beyond its borders. The Musk-Trump desire for a quick resolution is likely to lead to unexpected consequences, for which the Americans will lack the patience. It is hard to imagine the Americans are well prepared for these meetings - although the Russians will be. Lower ranking officials are trying to qualify the appeasing concessions Trump and his secretaries of defense and state have made in public.