A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Oct 29, 2022

Ukrainian Surprise Night Attack Damages Russian Fleet In Sevastopol, Crimea

Sebastopol has been the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea fleet since the 18th century until Ukrainian independence. That is one of the reasons Putin seized it from Ukraine in 2014. 

But its vulnerability to Ukrainian military attack has again been revealed (following attacks on Crimean airfields this past summer as well as the attack on the Kerch bridge) as a number of Russian ships have been heavily damaged - several of them having been the source of missile attacks on Ukrainian cities. Revenge is a bitch.  

Mark Sumner reports in Daily Kos:

On Friday night, Ukraine launched an attack on the Crimean port of Sevastopol. Russian sources report this attack included UAVs (drones) and UMV (automated boats). There are reports of damage to a number of Russian naval vessels, including the frigate Admiral Makarov. Several large ships were ablaze in the harbor. The Admiral Makarov suffered heavy damage and has been burning for hours. At least three of the ships damaged are those which have launched Kalibr missiles into Ukrainian cities. In the immediate aftermath, Russian news outlets attributed the blasts to a “training exercise.” On Friday night, Ukraine launched an attack on the Crimean port of Sevastopol. Russian sources have reported that this attack included at least nine UAVs (drones) and seven UMV (automated boats). Ukrainian sources have called these claims ridiculous. But however it was achieved, there are reports of damage to a number of Russian naval vessels, including the Frigate Admiral Makarov. At least three of the ships damaged are reportedly those which were have launched Kalibr missiles into Ukrainian cities.

Images from the event show a series of explosions. In the immediate aftermath, Russian news outlets attributed the blasts to a “training exercise.” Then Russia claimed that Ukraine had launched their incredible air-sea drone combo punch, but had only taken out a fishing trawler. Russia later acknowledge damage to a minesweeper.

However, it was evident from the beginning that several large ships were ablaze in the harbor. With the coming of the morning, some of these ships can be identified. The Admiral Makarov — a 122m (400’) long ship that was just launched in 2015 — appears to have suffered heavy damage and has now been burning for hours. The harbor may be too shallow for it to join the cruiser Moskva at the bottom of the sea, but there’s little doubt that the Makarov will be out of action for an extended period.

The power of the explosions is clear. Less clear is what Ukraine actually used to carry out this mission (based on recent experience, Russia is likely to blame NATO-trained dolphins and attack mosquitos). Adding to the wonder over just how badly Russia handled this, even on the propaganda front, just minutes before the explosions Russian officials reported that Ukraine had launched drones toward Sevastopol, but all those drones have been destroyed. 

In April, Russian ships were forced to move farther away from the Ukrainian coast after Ukraine gave a vivid demonstration of their ability, and of Russia’s inadequate defenses, by sinking the Moskva, which was at that point the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. With the Moskva out of action, Russia needed a new flagship and, this is true, the selection was … the Admiral Makarov. So Ukraine may have just sunk the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet. Again.

In September, Russia reportedly relocated its Kilo-class submarines from Sevastopol to the Russian port of Novorossiysk in Krasnodar Krai. This came after a series of explosions in Crimea whose origin seemed to baffle the Russian military. Some planes from Crimean air fields were also relocated back to the other side of the soon-to-be damaged Kerch Bridge. However, Sevastopol is almost 300km from the nearest Ukrainian-controlled territory, well outside of the longest range attack from HIMARS and at the limit of operations for the Bayraktar drone. Despite the handful of earlier explosions, it seemed that Russia didn’t think its Black Sea Fleet was in serious danger. 

They thought wrong. Those subs over at Novorossiysk better make room. They’re likely to have some new neighbors … assuming those neighbors are capable of making the journey. And now I’m going to link my own tweet, because I want to share the meme, and because I can barely resist typing “wessels” every time it comes up.Because the border between liberated territory and Russian occupation in the south has changed so slightly over the last six months, we rarely look too closely at what’s going on all along the line from south of Bakhmut over to Kamyanske. But there are a whole line of hero towns along that front; towns that have been forced to withstand daily shelling from Russian artillery day after day, week after week, and month after month. Before the war, Orikhiv was a town of around 20,000, making it larger than Lyman, smaller than Izyum. As with Bakhmut, Russia has made almost endless attempts to advance into this area. Those attempts have all been unsuccessful, but the damage to this beautiful old town, formerly home to a large group of Mennonites, is heartbreaking.

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