Latest Russian Offensive Lacks the Resources To "Succeed Or Even Get Very Far"

All indications are that Russia has launched its spring offensive. But reports from Sumy, Kharkiv and Donbas are all the same: Moscow does not have enough resources - troops and equipment - to achieve significant advances or overall success. 

That the Russians are perceived to be able to "only perform tactical movement" reveals that they are capable of only local activity and cannot achieve strategic gains, including breakthroughs. JL

Howard Altman reports in The Drive Warzone:

A new Russian offensive in Ukraine’s Sumy and Kharkiv regions has yet to capture much territory. Despite having amassed tens of thousands of troops, Moscow doesn’t have the resources to get very far. “We don’t observe enough Russian troops to capture Sumy City, 15 miles from the border." Russia is not making major gains in Kharkiv for the same lack of resources. Even in Donetsk, Russia doesn’t have the means to achieve significant advances. The Russians have resources, "but (we) doubt they are enough to achieve significant successes, especially at the operational level. They can only perform tactical movement."

A new Russian offensive to gain territory in Ukraine’s Sumy and Kharkiv regions is underway, but has yet to capture much territory. Despite having amassed tens of thousands of troops on the border, Moscow doesn’t have the resources to get very far, the head of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Directorate (GUR) told The War Zone exclusively on Monday.

While Russian forces are in Sumy near the border, “we don’t observe enough Russian troops to capture Sumy City,” about 15 miles from the border, Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov told us. “But they try to push our troops near the border.”

 

Russian forces continued offensive operations in northern Sumy Oblast on April 13 but did not advance, according to the Institute for the Study of War.

The Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces, Valery Gerasimov, announced last month that Russian troops had entered the Sumy region. The Russian Defense Ministry (MoD) later claimed control over several populated areas, including the village of Novenkoye, as well as the villages of Basovka and Veselovka. That advance came from Russia’s Kursk region, where Ukraine maintains a small presence after invading in August.

Earlier this month, Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said the Russian spring offensive “already begun.” The offensive is aimed largely at the border regions of Sumy and Kharkiv and was evident in increased fighting.

Russian military personnel are planning to encircle Sumy city, the BBC reported, citing a source in the Ukrainian General Staff.

 

The Ukrainian Armed Forces believe that Russia intends to create a “buffer zone” in this region through “an encirclement or semi-encirclement of Sumy,” a source in the Ukrainian General Staff added.

“The number of offensive actions by the Russians more than doubled and was the largest since the beginning of the year” starting last month, BBC Ukraine noted last week. “If at the beginning of March there were about 100 per day, then by the end of the month more than 200 clashes were recorded. As of early April, the average figure is at the level of 150-160.”

Despite the increase in clashes across the front lines, Russia is not making major gains in Kharkiv for the same lack of resources, Budanov said. Even in Donetsk, Russia doesn’t have the means to achieve significant advances, he added.

“Donetsk is a better situation for them,” Budanov said. “But still, they don’t have enough troops right now to [advance past] the administrative borders. They can only perform tactical movement.”

“More combat actions are conducted in the Donetsk region,” Budanov added.

Budanov’s comments echo those made last week by Col. Pavlo Palisa, Deputy Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine for Military Affairs.

 

“There are signs that the Russian group is preparing to intensify hostilities in several directions,” he told reporters. “Of course, the Russians have resources. But I have doubts whether they are enough to achieve significant successes, especially at the operational level.”

Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to maintain a small presence of troops in Russia’s Belgorod region to help protect Sumy and Kharkiv, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated last week.

Russia’s offensive comes against the backdrop of U.S. President Donald Trump’s efforts to foster a wider ceasefire and ultimately a peace deal. Both sides are jockeying for more land to better their position at the bargaining table, but neither is making real gains.