Russia's Summer Offensive Failed To Deliver Gains, And With Enormous Losses

Assessments of Russia's battlefield performance during its summer offensive are uniformly grim: failure to deliver territorial gains, an abnormally high kill to wounded ratio, recruiting advantage effectively erased by enormous casualties with Russia losing five soldiers for every Ukrainian. 

This year is set to become the Kremlin's worst of the war as cumulative losses have surged 60% due to Russia's desperate attempts to achieve some sort of positive outcome, all of which have come up short. JL

The Economist reports via Alex Stezhensky reporting in the New Voice of Ukraine:

Russia’s major summer offensive in Ukraine failed to deliver the territorial gains the Kremlin hoped for, despite record numbers of mobilized troops and months of sustained assaults. Territorial advances remain marginal, while losses are enormous. As of October 3, Russia’s cumulative losses surged 60%, reaching 984,000 to 1.44 million troops lost, with between 190,000 and 480,000 killed. “Moreover, a sudden collapse of Ukraine’s defensive lines is unlikely. If nothing changes dramatically, Putin cannot win the war on the battlefield. Taking over all of Ukraine would require another 103 years.  The fact that he keeps trying only shows that he’s out of ideas.” 

Russia’s major summer offensive in Ukraine failed to deliver the territorial gains the Kremlin hoped for, despite record numbers of mobilized troops and months of sustained assaults. Territorial advances remain minimal, while losses are enormous, The Economist reported on Oct. 17.

The outlet noted that while Western observers often focus on Ukraine’s manpower shortages, a more pressing fact is how little territory Russia has gained at the cost of tens of thousands of lives.

“If nothing changes dramatically, Putin cannot win the war on the battlefield. The fact that he keeps trying only shows that he’s out of ideas,” The Economist wrote.

 

Based on estimates from nearly 200 sources — ranging from Western governments to independent analysts — Russia’s cumulative losses since the full-scale invasion began stood at 640,000 to 877,000 personnel as of January 2025, including between 137,000 and 228,000 killed.

By Oct. 13, the figure had surged by nearly 60%, reaching 984,000 to 1.44 million troops lost, with between 190,000 and 480,000 killed.

 

“Moreover, a sudden collapse of Ukraine’s defensive lines is unlikely, given how the two armies fight. Constant drone surveillance combined with long-range precision weaponry has made massing forces near the front suicidal,” the article stated.

Despite the scale of Russian operations, its territorial gains remain marginal. At the current pace, it would take Russia at least five more years — until summer 2030 — to fully seize the occupied parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhya oblasts. Taking over all of Ukraine, The Economist calculated, would require another 103 years.

The article also examined casualty ratios between Russian and Ukrainian forces. According to UALosses, a project that tracks obituaries of Ukrainian troops, over 77,000 Ukrainian defenders have been killed since the invasion began, with a similar number listed as missing.

Even if Ukraine’s actual losses are twice as high, The Economist estimates that in 2025, Russia is still losing five soldiers for every Ukrainian killed. Rough calculations suggest that troop deaths amount to 0.5–1.2% of Russia’s prewar male population under 60, compared to 0.6–1.3% in Ukraine.

 

“At this pace, it’s Russia — not Ukraine — that could run out of manpower first, despite a massive mobilization campaign. This summer’s mass casualties have effectively erased Putin’s recruiting advantage,” the article said.

According to the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, Russia lost about 1,150 troops in the past day alone. From Feb. 24, 2022, through Oct. 18, 2025, total Russian personnel losses stand at approximately 1,129,180.

On Oct. 8, the Institute for the Study of War noted that Russian forces currently face an abnormally high kill-to-wounded ratio in Ukraine — roughly 1 to 1.3, instead of the more standard 1 to 3.