Russia Sending Aid To Iran As It Fears Consequences Of Government Overthrow

Iran has sent Russia $2.7 billion worth of missiles to support its invasion of Ukraine. 

Russia is justifiably fearful that the Iranian government could collapse due to internal protests and attacks along its borders being launched opportunistically by separatist groups like the Kurds and Baluchis. The loss of Iranian support would be devastating for the Kremlin, so it has reportedly hastened delivery of armored vehicles and helicopters which would not be much use in a conventional war but could be effective against lightly armed civilian groups. JL

Institute For the Study of War reports:

Russia is helping the Iranian regime suppress protests and maintain control in the face of protests and insurgent attacks. Russia supplied Iran with Russian-made Spartak armored vehicles and attack helicopters in recent weeks. Iran received these systems before the protests began, but Iran likely acquired these systems for use in internal disturbances. Attack helicopters are more capable at fighting insurgencies or addressing internal conflicts due to the lack of serious enemy air defenses that could inhibit operations. Iran is facing both large-scale protests and small insurgent attacks along its borders. Armored vehicles can be used to bolster the regime’s efforts to suppress protests and counter-insurgencies.

Russia is likely helping the Iranian regime suppress protests and maintain control in the face of both protests and insurgent attacks. Politico reported on January 13 that Russia supplied Iran with Russian-made Spartak armored vehicles and attack helicopters in recent weeks.[11] Iran received these systems before the protests began, but Iran likely acquired these systems for use in internal disturbances, including protests. Iran is very unlikely to use such equipment in any conventional modern conflict. Israel and the United States, Iran’s key adversaries, use long-range missiles and aircraft that could destroy attack helicopters long before the helicopter could engage the aircraft. Attack helicopters are more capable at fighting insurgencies or addressing internal conflicts due to the lack of serious enemy air defenses that could inhibit helicopter operations.[12] Iran is facing both large-scale protests and small insurgent attacks along its borders. Armored vehicles can be used to bolster the regime’s efforts to suppress the protests and broader counter-insurgency efforts. Russia previously sent Iran Spartak armored vehicles in 2023, and Iranian border guards began operating them in November 2025.[13] These border guards could help support counterinsurgent operations against Balochi or Kurdish militias that operate in border areas and are conducting attacks amid the protests (see below). Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu held a phone call with SNSC Secretary Ali Larijani on January 13, almost certainly to discuss ongoing protests in Iran.[14] Iran previously sought Russia’s help to quell protests in 2022.[15]

The overlap of protest activity and reported militancy in border areas is placing additional strain on the regime’s security apparatus and risks allowing each to intensify the threat posed by the other. Recent regime responses to the protests, including the deployment of the IRGC Ground Forces to some cities, indicate bandwidth constraints among security forces. Reports indicate that the Iranian security forces arrested at least 550 Baloch protesters in Zahedan, Chabahar, and Iranshahr, over the past five days.[16] Prominent Iranian Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid escalated his criticism of the regime’s response to the protests in a January 13 post on X. Hamid stated that the killing of protesters constituted a “horrific and unprecedented catastrophe” that plunged the Iranian nation into grief and rage.[17] Abdol Hamid warned that those responsible would be held accountable both “in this world and the hereafter.”[18] Abdol Hamid’s statement marks an intensification from his January 9 sermon, in which he urged peaceful change and called on security forces to avoid confronting protesters.[19] CTP-ISW previously assessed that Hamid may be reemerging as a catalyst for protests in southeastern Iran, which would compound the bandwidth constraints that Iranian security forces are reportedly facing. Abdol Hamid was a catalyst for protests in Zahedan during and after the Mahsa Amini movement. A medium-sized anti-regime protest, which CTP-ISW defines as a protest with 100-1,000 participants, broke out in Zahedan after Abdol Hamid’s January 9 sermon.

A recent uptick in anti-regime militant activity in southeastern Iran may exacerbate the regime’s bandwidth constraints by creating additional security challenges for the regime in southeastern Iran. Anti-regime militant activity in southeastern Iran will only further strain security force capacity as the protests continue. Iranian media reported on January 13 that Iranian security forces arrested several “terrorist teams” operating under Israeli direction in Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchistan Province.[20] Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)-affiliated Tasnim News Agency claimed on January 13 that those groups entered Iran from the east and established seven safe houses in Zahedan.[21] The Iranian Law Enforcement Command (LEC) and Sistan and Baluchistan border guards separately arrested a group of “smugglers” and seized several weapons in border areas on January 13.[22] The Mubarizoun Popular Front (MPF), which is a coalition of Baloch organizations, separately claimed responsibility for two attacks targeting LEC personnel in Sistan and Baluchistan Province on January 7 and 10.[23] The MPF stated on January 1 that it is monitoring the regime’s response to the protests and emphasized that it will respond to any instances of regime violence, which suggests a potential willingness to escalate if conditions deteriorate.[24]

There also continue to be unconfirmed reports of Kurdish militant activity in northwestern Iran. The Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), which is an Iranian Kurdish militant group, issued a statement on January 13, claiming responsibility for attacks against IRGC positions in Kermanshah Province on January 12.[25] The group claimed that multiple teams conducted a coordinated attack and killed IRGC personnel.[26] The group stated that the operation was retaliation for the death of PAK fighters.[27] IRGC Ground Forces Nabi Akram Unit members have been involved in the suppression of protests in Kermanshah.[28] The Kurdistan National Guard separately announced on January 9 that its “Zagros Tornado units” attacked an IRGC base in Nourabad, Lorestan Province, and injured three IRGC members.