Iran War Turns Ukraine's Russian Success Into Billion-Dollar Defense Business

The enemy of my enemy is my friend. Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, all political and financial supporters of Donald Trump, just signed 10 year deals, potentially worth billions with Ukraine to assist them in fending off Iranian attacks. This despite the US President's evident favoring of Iran's closest ally, Vladimir Putin. 

And the reason is simply practical: they are threatened but finding that the billions they have spent on US military hardware over the decades is of less utility against Iranian drones than are the Ukrainian countermeasures - and experts who can train them on how to make the most of their new acquisitions. So for all those crowing about Putin's big win in the Iranian-Israeli-US war, it may be time for a reassessment. JL 

Peter Caddick-Adams reports in The Telegraph:

For decades the Middle East's Gulf states have been investing hundreds of billions of dollars in conventional military assets bought from Russia and the West, only to find themselves at the mercy of cheap weaponry that can threaten a refinery, desalination plant, or airbase, and destroy a multi-million-dollar radar facility or a warship. Money no longer equals power, for Kyiv’s technology demonstrated that tens of thousands of dollars can wipe out billions in a trice. Ukraine’s military dexterity will define how war is waged for the next 30 years. A broader partnership across the Gulf was unveiled during Zelensky’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE last week, when he signed 10-year agreements on defense cooperation with all three states.

It is an argument we have heard repeatedly from both the eminent and disreputable over the past few weeks: the American-Israeli attack on Iran is bad for Ukraine. The global spike in the oil price means more cash for Moscow, and US missiles fired at Tehran mean fewer to help Kyiv.

It’s also true that the Iran war will disrupt Kyiv’s summer exports of corn, wheat, sunflower oil and soybeans, of which the Gulf states buy 20 per cent, and imports of ammonia-based fertilisers, vital for those crops’ growth. All rely on shipping, much of which is prevented from entering or leaving the blocked Strait of Hormuz.

And if you look at the issue of drones, Moscow bought vast numbers of Iran’s Shahed-136 machines with which to bomb Ukraine. These are now licensed for production in the Russian Federation where they are known as the Geran-2. Last week, it emerged that some, along with medical aid and food, are now trickling back across the Caspian Sea and into Iran. In these global exchanges of weapons, resources and agricultural products, Ukraine would appear to be the net losers.

But in my view, there is every reason to believe the current Gulf War will benefit Volodymyr Zelensky’s Ukraine more than Vladimir Putin’s Russia. To understand why, it’s important to recognise what Ukraine itself has learnt during the past four years of the Russian invasion. 

Ever since the first Russian tank lurched towards Kyiv early on February 24, 2022, Ukraine showed unexpected resilience. Rather than collapsing as some expected, it opted to wage total war, using every organ of the state and mobilising all resources to counter Moscow’s aggression.

The Ukrainians have proved ingeniously adept at working with limited resources. Drones were once regarded as the distant future of war, but these little flying devils have in fact turned out to be the present. Ukraine’s software whizz kids have reached the stage where lessons learnt from the morning’s skirmishes are incorporated into the afternoon’s designs, pioneered during the most intense product-testing atmosphere in the world.

Their drones hit small tactical targets such as trucks, troops and quad-bikes, plant minefields, act as kamikaze bombers, and spot for artillery and rocket units. Larger models dogfight and intercept Russian airborne threats, while high-altitude, long-range types conduct surveillance and strike strategic targets like railheads, air bases, arms factories and oil terminals deep in Russia. 

With ambitions to manufacture up to 10 million units a year (far ahead of China’s 3 million), Ukraine looks set to dominate the world market as a drone superpower. And, instead of being a slave to existing aerial doctrine, Ukraine’s remote pilots have devised their own.

They operate with a lean, decentralised, and ruthlessly practical playbook that has held Russia at bay for four years. Their expertise and military professionalism are also recognised as applying not just to drones but other technical aspects of modern warfare. And now, with the Iran war raging, Western and Gulf nations are turning to the Ukrainians for help.

It goes beyond drones. The man who was until last year Nato’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe has been startlingly honest about Ukraine’s anti-aircraft prowess, for example. General Christopher Cavoli said recently: “Ukrainians are better at using the Patriot [air defence missile system] than Americans. They use single, well-aimed shots while we leave the system on automatic. They have a higher kill ratio and fewer friendly-fire casualties. At first, I was sceptical that Ukrainians would be able to master the Patriot quickly. Now we’re learning from them.” 

Western experts will also be learning from the fact that Ukraine has developed its own interceptors, costing $2,500 (£1,800) each. They hunt and destroy incoming threats by ramming or detonating alongside them. Who needs Patriots?

Kyiv now has enough elbow room to relax export controls and let Ukraine’s technology earn some hard currency and goodwill. Though Donald Trump has dismissed the idea, saying his United States does not need Ukraine’s help, Zelensky has recently sent teams of military specialists in response to requests from Gulf states being attacked by Iran.

The Middle East has been carefully watching the struggle in the blood lands of Ukraine, particularly the achievements of Kyiv’s “Unmanned Systems Forces Command”. They have seen how in offensive operations, singly or in swarms, Zelensky’s drones can carry warheads or bombs up to 250kg (550lb) in weight, with plans afoot for unmanned craft capable of reaching 2,000 kilometres (1,240 miles).

For decades, the Gulf states have been investing hundreds of billions of dollars into conventional military assets bought from both Russia and the West, only to find themselves at the mercy of cheap weaponry that can threaten a refinery, desalination plant, or airbase, and destroy a multi-million-dollar radar facility or a warship. Money no longer equals power, for Kyiv’s technology has demonstrated that tens of thousands of dollars can wipe out billions in a trice. However, Ukraine’s digital warriors also possess the antidote.

Every defence establishment in the world likes what they see of Ukraine’s military dexterity, which will define how war is waged for the next 30 years. A broader partnership across the Gulf was unveiled during Zelensky’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE last week, when Zelensky signed 10-year agreements on defence cooperation with all three states.

He announced: “Ukraine wants long-term ties, including joint production, cooperation in the energy sector, investment and sharing battlefield experience. We want systemic relationships, where exporters earn revenue and Ukraine receives sufficient funds to invest in domestic production.” 

Led by its courageous and astute president, Kyiv’s government has played a weak hand of cards extraordinarily well, turning an existential crisis to its own advantage. Now its expertise is helping to realign the geopolitical pack, cementing stronger relations with countries that have hitherto been ambivalent towards Ukraine’s existential struggle with Putin.

There is also talk that, as well as making use of Ukraine’s drone expertise, Gulf countries could give Zelensky’s country financial and energy support amid its ongoing need for cash to fund its war effort. Such discussions are prime evidence of the Iran War having boosted Ukraine’s standing.