Kremlin's Fortress Belt Offensive Has Become Another Russian Graveyard

As the impact of Operation Vivaldi on Putin's battlefield dreams becomes even clearer, the result in terms of blood and iron is also more tangible. 

It appears that the Russian assault on Ukraine's Fortress Belt has become a race to see which happens first: Ukraine giving way or Russia running out of people. There is also, looming over this situation, the specter of Trump losing his majorities in Congress, which would limit his ability to continue surreptitiously helping Putin anyway he can. Putin is a gambler and seems to believe that he can win this bet, especially as he tries to intimidate Europe with hybrid warfare attacks on commercial and industrial sites. But his problem goes back to the battlefield; in the digital age, everyone can see what is happening there and that his bet is being paid for with the blood of Russia's poorest and weakest, who are not getting the job done for him, despite their sacrifice. JL

Mick Ryan reports in Futura Doctrina:

Russian units “lost control and surrendered in groups, along with their officers, drone pilots, and artillerymen,” and prisoners on a scale suggesting Russian command and control around Lyman collapsed. The Russian units involved came from the 20th and 25th Combined Arms Armies, including the 3rd, 144th and 67th Motor Rifle Divisions and the 11th Tank Brigade, which shows how much Moscow had committed to the salient. Operation Vivaldi “disrupted the Russian military command’s plans to conduct a wide encirclement of the Fortress Belt from the Lyman and Dobropillya areas.” Russian forces lost 256 square kilometres in September. Russian casualties for September were 46,000, the highest monthly figure so far this year. Russian casualties are extraordinarily high, and higher than they were earlier this year.

President Zelenskyy visited the 3rd Army Corps in the Lyman sector on 30 September and discussed the next phase of Operation Vivaldi with its commander, Brigadier General Andrii Biletskyi. The corps reports that the operation has retaken 176 square kilometres, inflicted more than 5,000 Russian casualties and captured 250 prisoners. Zelenskyy later told Reuters the area was around 140 square kilometres, and the Kyiv Independent reported 125, so the totals depend on who is counting and when.

Several other issues are worth noting about Operation Vivaldi.

Biletskyi described Russian units that “lost control and surrendered in groups, along with their officers, drone pilots, and artillerymen,” and prisoners on that scale suggest Russian command and control around Lyman collapsed. The Russian units involved came from the 20th and 25th Combined Arms Armies, including the 3rd, 144th and 67th Motor Rifle Divisions and the 11th Tank Brigade, which shows how much Moscow had committed to the salient. ISW confirmed previous assessments by me and others that Operation Vivaldi “disrupted the Russian military command’s plans to conduct a wide encirclement of the Fortress Belt from the Lyman and Dobropillya areas.”

Russian PoWs from Operation Vivaldi. Image: 3rd Army Corps

President Zelenskyy described the results of Operation Vivaldi in terms of the broader ground campaign in the east, stating Ukrainian forces had “thwarted Russia’s plans to break through the rear of the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk” area, the core of Ukraine’s remaining defences in Donetsk Oblast. The key question is whether the 3^rd Corps can sustain its tempo, because a fourth phase is likely to need fresh infantry as well as more robots.

Interestingly, President Zelenskyy has described in a social media post how the Ukrainian ground forces wanted to conduct this offensive last year. He stated that:

Our military wanted to start this operation a year ago, but it was not that well prepared yet. Thank God, we decided to postpone it a bit, and now we have good results and fewer losses.

Finally, Zelenskyy singled out the combat robots being employed by Ukraine. “Replacing our soldiers with ground robotic systems whenever possible is a highly promising area at present,” he said, adding that this element made it possible to accomplish a great deal. Newsweek this week reported that Russian forces lost around 256 square kilometres in September and captured 176. Ukraine’s military listed Russian casualties for September at 46,000, the highest monthly figure so far this year. Zelenskyy’s total was 42,000. Regardless, average monthly Russian casualties are extraordinarily high, and higher than they were earlier this year.