Kremlin's Increasing Ukraine Losses Now Hurting War Effort and Economy

Russia's increasing casualties in the past three months - the heaviest of the war to date - are hurting both the broader Kremlin war effort and the Russian economy. 

The country is facing shortages of both troops and workers, a deficit that growing casualty figures is making worse for both sectors. These data reveal that Russia is throwing everything it can at the Ukrainians, but has little to show for it militarily, suggesting that the next few months will be crucial in determining how, and in what manner, the war may go on. JL

The Institute for the Study of War reports:

The Kremlin is continuing to suffer significant manpower losses in order to make tactical advances in western Donetsk Oblast at the expense of Russia's ongoing war effort and the medium-term viability of the Russian economy. Russia's constrained labor pool is likely unable to sustain this increased casualty rate in the medium-term.the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) would have to increase its monthly recruitment rates from 40,000-42,000 recruits to 50,000 recruits in order to seize the remainder of Donetsk Oblast while maintaining their current casualty rate. The current recruitment rate is thousands of troops short of Russia's ever-increasing monthly casualty totals. The Kremlin is unlikely to meet its needs for labor in both the military and Russia’s domestic economy in the near future

Why Russia's Artillery and Glide Bombs Strikes Declined Significantly In November

Russia's superiority in its ability to fire artillery and glide bombs at Ukrainian targets declined substantially in November, analyses show. 

The reasons are reported to be declines in Russian production capabilities, logistics problems and Ukrainian strikes on Russian ammunition stockpiles both in Russia and occupied Ukraine. The redeployment of Russian aircraft away from the front to protect them against attack is also a factor. The result has been a noticeable decline in Russian artillery and bombing. JL

Stefan Korshak reports in the Kyiv Post:

The Kremlin’s firepower advantage in Ukraine is falling, with Russian ground and air forces launching fewer artillery and bombs at Ukrainians. Russian artillery are able to fire only one and a half times as much as Ukraine - a drop from five to one this summer. The drop in shells fired by Russia result from limits on Russia's production, difficulties with rail transportation, strikes by Ukrainian drones on ammunition stockpiles inside Russia and Ukraine’s superiority in recon and FPV attack drones, which hunt artillery. Russian glide bomb strikes in November fell by half from October due to hits on Russian arsenals, as well as the withdrawal of aircraft to more distant airfields for fear of strikes on them

6,000 Ukrainian Soldiers Already Returned To Service Under New AWOL Law

In light of relentless Russian attacks across the front and the election of Ukraine skeptic Trump, Ukrainian soldiers going absent without leave (AWOL) increased in November. 

A new law gives first time offenders a reprieve. In the few days it has been in effect, over 6,000 Ukrainian troops - three brigades worth - have returned to service, which also reflects the success Ukrainian forces have had in holding off the Russians in both Donbas and Kursk. JL

Decimus reports in Daily Kos:

Ukraine has come up with an adaptive, practical and humane solution to its AWOL problem.  The President of Ukraine recently signed a new law granting soldiers (first time offenders) who left their units without permission or deserted, the opportunity to return to service. In the few days that this law has been in effect, it is estimated that 6,000 AWOL Ukrainian soldiers have taken advantage of (it) and returned to service.  Considering that the average Ukrainian brigade is about 2,000 soldiers, a newly refreshed infusion of the equivalent of 3 combat brigades of battle-tested soldiers is a timely boost

Hurting Mutual Enemy Russia While Aiding Ukraine Is Explicit Syrian Rebel Goal

The enemy of my enemy is my friend. 

Syrian rebels whose offensive has forced Syrian government. Russian and Iranian forces into headlong retreat reportedly considered the ability to hurt Russia - and help Ukraine - as one of the goals for the timing of their surprisingly successful attack. The Russians' history of brutal bombings against Syrian civilians as well as use of chemical weapons and other war crimes have made Russia many enemies. The possibility that Ukraine is aiding the rebels in various ways, including advising on how to counter Russian tactics and weapons. also seems possible. JL

Carlotta Gall reports in the New York Times:

The Syrian rebels seized an opportunity that presented itself with the Syrian government, Russia and Iran all weakened and overstretched by other conflicts. The rebels forced Russian forces to abandon a base near Aleppo and militias backed by Iran to cede control of the town of Tel Rifaat. A desire to aid Ukraine was another factor prompting the offensive, with the aim of striking a blow against Russia, a mutual enemy. “Two nations fighting to be free of tyranny and outside occupation, it is natural for them to coordinate." Both Russia and Iran have declared their support for al-Assad, but beyond several airstrikes, “Russia faces challenges in its ability to provide support."

2 Ukraine Marines Defeat Russian Kursk Wave Attack As Strategic Calculus Shifts

Russia has largely abandoned armored assaults in Kursk oblast as their devastating losses to drones, mines and artillery have degraded both inventories and capabilities. So the Russians have again resorted to meat wave attacks with unprotected infantry. 

But the ability of two Ukrainian marines to defeat such an assault is less about David versus Goliath heroics (though there is that) and more realistically about Ukraine's effectively designed, layered defensive lines allowing small groups of skilled combatants to coordinate with drone, mechanized and artillery forces to apply maximum pressure at the point where it is most needed. This is a strategy the Russians appear unable or unwilling to learn. JL

Euromaidan Press reports:

Faced with devastating losses of armored vehicles, Russian forces have resorted to mass infantry assaults. The shift from mechanized assaults to mass infantry attacks highlights the depletion of Russian armored capabilities but also a broader failure to adapt to Ukraine’s layered defenses and precision strikes. The stand of two Ukrainian soldiers against overwhelming odds, demonstrates Ukraine’s ability to leverage tactical setting and coordination to neutralize numerically superior forces. This suggests a growing disparity in the strategic calculus, where Russian forces are increasingly sacrificing manpower without meaningful gains, further weakening their capacity to sustain offensives.

A New Service Ranks AI Systems By Forcing Their Bots To Compete

Measures that matter. As AI use becomes more widespread, the cost of investment demands that organizations using it get a better idea of the utility - and economic return - it provides. 

Rather than relying on the claims of the big players like OpenAI, Anthropic and their big tech backers, a new service gives users the ability to compare AI responses to a set of questions in order to determine which is better for their needs. Demand for the service has grown exponentially and the biggest players are following it obsessively. The only problem from a Silicon Valley standpoint is that it introduces a factor that tech has worked very hard to eliminate: competition. JL

Miles Kruppa reports in the Wall Street Journal:

Traditionally, AI technologies have been assessed through advanced math, science and law tests. Chatbot Arena lets users ask a question, get answers from two anonymous AI models and rate which one is better. Traditionally, AI technologies have been assessed through advanced math, science and law tests. Chatbot Arena lets users ask a question, get answers from two anonymous AI models and rate which one is better. Chatbot Arena now ranks more than 170 models that have garnered a total of two million votes. It has expanded to include separate rankings for categories such as creative writing, coding and instruction-following. 

Ukrainian Special Operators Destroy, Capture Russian Marines In Kursk

More evidence is emerging of how Ukrainian forces are disrupting and stalling attempted Russian advances in Kursk oblast. 

Special operations units, working with mechanized and airborne assault brigades, are infiltrating behind Russian lines, degrading command, control, logistics and artillery support, making it difficult for the Russians to prepare to launch attacks, let alone carry them out. This is part of the reason why the Russians' expected advances have gained so little ground. JL

Militarnyi reports:

The 73rd Special Operations together with the 6th Ranger Regiment, destroyed or captured a platoon of Russian marines in the Kursk region. The SOF operators infiltrated the positions of the 810th Marine Brigade. Most of these operations involve discreet infiltration into the rear of Russian positions on the front line and a sudden coordinated attack. This is in preparation for the takeover of positions by mechanized and airborne assault units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The special forces are also setting up highway ambushes using precision weapons, such as M712 Coppehead laser-guided projectiles.