A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Nov 26, 2012

Does Cyber Monday Matter Anymore?

OK, online sales today will be stupendous. But tell us this, what day ISN'T Cyber Monday anymore?

Black Friday sales were up but number of discreet shopper visits were down. This is reminiscent of what happened to movie ticket sales. You raise the price enough, your revenues will go up for a while, until customers' preference for alternatives becomes too obvious to ignore.

The problem with Cyber Monday - a slogan chosen by a trade association (naturally...)- is that online promotions are not limited to one day in particular. It came about when merchants noticed that online sales spiked the Monday following Black Friday as people who had done their reconnaissance in the stores then went online to do their purchasing when they got back to their computers at work a few days later so as to avoid the ridiculous check-out lines at the stores.

But yes, things have changed. Smart phones. Tablets. Redeployment of sales and promotional budgets from one day to many. There is simply no longer any point in waiting. Especially when the electronic version of frustratingly long cashier check-out lines starts to happen with credit card processing times on that one day.

Again, convenience is driving these trends. People want what they want when they want it. And they dont like waits of any kind. Especially since the most popular items - tablets and phones again this year - are not exactly seasonal offerings like egg nog and pumpkin pie.

So our guess is that Cyber Monday will eventually go the way of transitional phenomena like Vice Presidents of Information Technology and even, yes, hand over heart, tax subsidies for ecommerce. JL

Constantine von Hoffman comments in Marketwatch:
The increasing popularity of smartphones and tablets may be decreasing the significance of Cyber Monday for online sales. A growing number of people aren't waiting until the holiday weekend is over to go shopping online and are getting it done on Thanksgiving and Black Friday instead. The phrase "Cyber Monday" was coined five years ago in the belief that the day when people go back to work -- and get back to their computers -- after the holiday weekend was the heaviest online shopping day of the year. Although this has never been true -- the days with the most online sales are the ones just before the deadline for packages to arrive by Christmas -- Cyber Monday has come to be viewed as an indicator of how well the online holiday shopping season would go.

However, this year Cyber Monday may be even less significant because of double digit increases in online sales on Thanksgiving and Black Friday. According to IBM Benchmark, Thanksgiving saw a 17.4 percent increase in sales over 2011 and Black Friday's were up by 20.7 percent.

Black Friday saw $1.04 billion in online retail sales, a 26 percent increase from last year's $816 million, according to ComScore. Thanksgiving, which hadn't previously seen much shopping in any form, saw a 32 percent increase in online shopping with $633 million in sales this year, compared to $479 million in 2011.

One of the primary reasons for this may be the increasing use of mobile devices which is freeing people from needing to use their work computers for shopping. Over the holiday weekend 24 percent of consumers used a smartphone or tablet to visit a retailer's site, up from 14.3 percent in 2011. And they weren't just window shopping: Mobile sales exceeded 16 percent, up from 9.8 percent in 2011, according to IBM.

Apple's iPad and iPhone are the devices of choice among online shoppers. The iPad was responsible for nearly 10 percent of online shopping. This was followed by iPhone at 8.7 percent and Android at 5.5 percent, according to IBM.

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