Everywhere one looks,
Google is doing
remarkable things. It could soon overtake Apple in downloads of applications; it
is developing self-driving cars; people wear its kooky augmented reality
Glass spectacles; it is
signing
renewable power deals in South Africa and Sweden.My answer is: nobody, or not easily. Indeed, the best comparison for Google
seems to me not Microsoft in the 1980s but
General Electric
in the late 19th century – the age of electrification. Like GE, Google is a
multifaceted industrial enterprise riding a wave of technology with an uncanny
ability not only to invent far-reaching products but also to produce them
commercially.
It coincides with Larry Page’s ascent to being undisputed leader of the
company he founded at Stanford University with Sergey Brin 15 years ago. Instead
of the “Google guys” – Mr Page, Mr Brin and Eric Schmidt, its former chief
executive and now chairman – running it as an amiable mixture of a company and a
chaotic research lab, Mr Page has made it formidably focused.
Google’s growing lead in data analysis and artificial intelligence became
clear at its
developers’ conference in May. “It’s easy for consumers to
switch to another search engine, but it is difficult to make anything as good,”
says
Benedict Evans, an analyst. “Google is a massive machine
learning project, and it’s been feeding the machine for a decade.”
All of this is happening at a time of growing scepticism about Silicon Valley
– its airy claims to be changing the world for the better when the people who
most benefit are its own billionaires; its use of low-tax jurisdictions to avoid
corporate tax; the dubious ways in which many free services collect and exploit
personal data; the triviality of countless start-ups.
The social networking boom that started a decade ago is waning, with
Zynga,
the internet games company, laying off 18 per cent of employees.
George Packer wrote in The New Yorker of Silicon Valley: “The
hottest tech start-ups are solving all the problems of being 20 years old, with
cash in hand, because that’s who thinks them up.”
Google is not without sin – it faces
heavy
criticism for its tax avoidance, and despite its proclamation of being an
open standards company, it fights as hard as Microsoft to keep others stuck to
its platform. But Mr Page can hardly be accused of lacking purpose and
vision.
He has extended its search lead into mobile, through Android and Chrome
software, and he shows no signs of being satisfied. “We haven’t seen this rate
of change in technology for a long time, probably not since the birth of
personal computing,” he remarked happily at the May conference.
Meanwhile, other Silicon Valley giants face varying degrees of difficulty.
Investors have soured on
Apple since Tim
Cook became chief executive, discouraged by, among other things, its botched
attempt to rival Google Maps.
Yahoo, run by
an ex-Googler, Marissa Mayer, is struggling to replicate its engineering
strength, while
Facebook is
trying to move to mobile.
None matches its computer science research capacity, or ability to turn ideas
into products. The clearest manifestation is Google X, its “moonshot” research
lab, which is developing wearable computers and “autonomous” cars. But research
in software and artificial intelligence lies at Google’s core.
What was once a search company has become an internet, data and software
company with boundless ambition and the capacity to deliver a flow of unexpected
products. In that sense, Mr Page is a latter-day Thomas Edison, a commercial
inventor marked by “the utterly fearless range of his experimental activities,”
according to Randall Stross, a biographer.
Compared with the 1890s, Google resembles GE, while Amazon is like Sears
Roebuck, the catalogue shopping company that transformed US retailing. GE was
founded in 1892 and Sears Roebuck in 1893, at a time when the continent was
altered by the telegraph and electricity.
Mr Page often talks of his fascination with Nikola Tesla, the Serbian US
immigrant who worked for Edison and later fought him in the “wars of current” –
the battle between Edison and Westinghouse over whether the US should adopt DC
or AC electricity. He read a biography of Tesla as a child and “cried at the end
because I realised you can be the world’s greatest inventor and still be a
failure”.
Both Tesla and Edison were equal parts inventors and showmen, and neither one
succeeded completely in business – GE was formed in a merger, with Edison losing
control. Henry Ford is said to have called him “the world’s greatest inventor
and the world’s worst businessman”. Mr Page, who has a $20bn fortune, scores
higher.
But electricity disrupted industries as fully as the internet. The Brooklyn
Eagle wrote of incumbent gas companies: “To see them squirm and writhe is a
public satisfaction that lifts Edison to a higher plane than that of the
wonderful inventor and causes him to be regarded as a benefactor of the human
race.”
GE had many rivals, yet its combination of inventiveness and commercial
acumen marked it out from the pack, setting it up to exploit the technology
Edison had pioneered for the next century. The unnerving thing about Mr Page is
that he studies history.
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