A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Nov 27, 2014

The Curse of Black Friday, the Sale That Began in October:

Let's be thankful for waiting in line in the dark outside a big box retail chain store that is opening early on a national holiday in order to offer deals on products it sold for the same price last year.

Or to put it another way, let's see what happens when managers condition consumers to expect discounts with such numbing regularity that one day no longer cuts it. If you're paying attention, you will notice that the supposedly really, really special Black Friday sales for which people begin queuing a week in advance and fight about places in line - actually began this year on Halloween.

The problem - for the merchants and the consumers - is that no one is satisfied. And none of it really matters. Because the real culprit is Cyber Monday, which actually began on Black Friday several years ago - and never ended. Nor will it. Ever.  JL

Catherine Curan reports in the New York Post:

Retail titans from Amazon to Walmart — and nearly every store in between — have been stretching the selling season with Black Friday discounts that started the day after Halloween.
This year, it’s Broken Friday.
After a tough 2014, nervous retailers couldn’t afford to wait for the traditional day after Thanksgiving to pull the trigger on holiday shopping discounts.
So retail titans from Amazon to Walmart — and nearly every store in between — have been stretching the selling season with Black Friday discounts that started the day after Halloween.
Macy’s, JCPenney and Toys “R” Us, which started opening on Thanksgiving a couple of years ago, are opening earlier than ever for Turkey Day 2014.
Retail experts say the hysterical bombardment of deals both online and in stores all November long shows just how ineffective — and dysfunctional — the Black Friday business model has become.
Just 28 percent of shoppers are expected to hit the stores the day after Thanksgiving this year, according to a survey released last week from Bankrate.com.
“Retailers know that big pop, the big Black Friday day — it’s not working,” said Bankrate.com analyst Jeanine Skowronski.
Black Friday used to be the day retailers’ profit ledgers entered the black for the year. Now it’s known for chaos, stampeding crowds and deals that can be found with less hassle online or some other time. As shoppers struggle with stagnant wages and high food prices, stores are fighting to win their limited discretionary dollars and turn a profit amid all the price-cutting.
Add to that, on Black Friday, pickets will be outside 1,600 Walmart stores, calling for higher wages and full-time jobs for those who want them. “Personally, I never go to a store on Black Friday — there’s no need to,” said Edward Hertzman, publisher of Sourcing Journal. “A better sale is probably just around the corner, especially on seasonal merchandise.”
Since the 2008 Black Friday trampling death of a Long Island Walmart employee by a mob of shoppers, the post-Turkey Day doorbuster sales have been notorious for attracting dangerous crowds. This year, Walmart and other stores are staggering deals and trying new strategies to keep the crowds less dangerous.
Stores began extending Black Friday to try to bounce back from the recession. Now, however, they have trained consumers to expect a constant stream of price cuts, and are jockeying for first place in a fiercely competitive race. The discounts may help stores reach the forecast of up to 4 percent revenue growth for the 2014 holiday season, but margins will suffer.
“I think sales are going to be OK this season, but how profitable are the sales going to be?” said Jim Rice, vice president at research firm Creditntell.

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