A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Jan 27, 2018

94% of US Workers Don't Believe Automation Will Take Their Jobs

Despite the growth of robots supplementing manufacturing and fulfillment work rather than replacing it, many of the 94% may be wrong. JL

Alina Selyukh reports in NPR:

94% of U.S. workers — across all industries — say it's unlikely they will lose jobs to automation.Warehouse companies say robots will supplement human labor, not replace it. Amazon, which has rolled out thousands of robots, says it has more than 75 fulfillment centers, the majority of which employ at least a thousand full-time hourly associates. "Our 25+ robotics fulfillment centers employ 2,000 to 4,000 full-time hourly associates,""I don't think a robot could do this."
The wheels of a tall, metal cart squeak as Chris Beatty, 26, pulls it through a maze of aisles inside a cosmetics warehouse in Burlington, N.J.
A hand-held scanner helps Beatty find specific items, such as face cream or lipstick — to be sorted, packed and shipped to online customers. In his industry, this is called picking.
Asked if a robot could do his job, Beatty responds with a long pause. "That's a tough one," he says eventually, "but I don't think a robot could do this."
Or, maybe he just doesn't want to think about it. "I love my job too much," he says, with a smile.
Beatty's scanner indicates where to find each item and then where to place it in his cart. Each slot in the cart corresponds to a single online shopping order. Claire Harbage/NPR
His optimism matches the findings in a new NPR/Marist poll. The survey shows 94 percent of U.S. workers — across all industries — say it's unlikely they will lose jobs to automation.
Interviews with numerous warehouse workers at Beatty's employer — Radial — and others employed by Amazon revealed their confidence about the future.
But many forecasters aren't as sanguine. They point to giants like Amazon and Walmart speeding up warehouse work with machines.
The warehouse is a new fulfillment center run by Radial, handling some of the biggest brands in cosmetics.
Claire Harbage/NPR
Thanks to surging online shopping, retail warehouses are booming, and so are jobs. But the unavoidable buzzword is automation. Labor economists say the industry is quickly learning the same lesson that reshaped manufacturing — intense competition and larger scale lead to a big push for efficiency to keep costs down.

The warehouse companies tend to say that robots will supplement and ease human labor, not replace it. For example, Amazon, which has rolled out thousands of robots, maintains a massive workforce and is perpetually on a hiring spree. Amazon says it has more than 75 fulfillment centers, the majority of which employ at least a thousand full-time hourly associates. "Our 25+ robotics fulfillment centers employ 2,000 to 4,000 full-time hourly associates," an Amazon spokeswoman told NPR.
(Top) Bibiana Ramos, 29, works with precision, folding tissue paper inside a special box, placing cosmetics on top and gently affixing the shipping label. (Bottom left) Many different kinds of boxes are used throughout the warehouse, some for bulk items, and other more delicate boxes that are sent to consumers. (Bottom right) Painted footprints help direct employees safely and efficiently. Claire Harbage/NPR 
And warehouse employees themselves believe it will be hard for automation to squeeze them out of work.
"There's a lot of jobs in here that could be taken over by machines, but who's going to run the building?" says Marc Munn, who manages the department where Beatty works. "If something breaks ... I don't think we'll have other machines in here to fix that, so that's where my job comes into play."
Alex Economos, who runs this Radial warehouse, says investing in a lot of robots makes more sense in a large million-square-foot Amazon facility than a small or midsize operation like his. Claire Harbage/NPR
Packer Bibiana Ramos points out the precision and care of her work. "I know there's machines that make boxes, but not this kind of boxes," she says. Ramos folds tissue paper inside a special box, placing cosmetics on top and gently affixing the shipping label. "It has to be kind of ... meticulous," she says, "so it could have a good presentation."
Alex Economos, who runs the Radial warehouse, says investing in a lot of robots makes more sense in a large million-square-foot Amazon facility than a small or midsize operation like his — robots aren't cheap.
Economos says in more than 30 years working in warehouses, he hasn't seen automation fully eliminate a job. "Automation isn't always the right answer," he says. "I'm open to both." Claire Harbage/NPR 
He shares the story of RFID chips — little tags that started popping up in warehouses years back, when he worked for Walmart. They held the promise of easy, instantaneous automated accounting of all the items in a pallet, for example. But they didn't take off, he says, because of the cost of tagging every single item, especially cheap common goods like toothpaste.
Plus, the machines for now aren't really that skillful.
"You could never say never," Economos says. "But at this time ... you would literally need a robot with the dexterity, with the fingers to pick up something light, as small as a ChapStick, and as large as a bottle of shampoo."
Alvine Bunch, 23, used to work at Amazon as a picker, but now does the same work at Radial. She says she does expect more robots in warehouses of the future "but not to the point whereas there's just no work to do." Claire Harbage/NPR 
One Amazon warehouse worker says her job includes making boxes for items that the scanners can't handle — like a fishing rod that's too thin for the lasers to recognize.
"A lot of the machines I see or deal with in the warehouse really aren't that great," she says, speaking anonymously to not violate the terms of her employment. "There are just so many things that you need a competent human to deal with in our warehouse."
But she's actually eager to see robots deal with heavy lifting and the messy parts of the job.
A conveyor belt, one of two types of automation at the Radial warehouse, fetches boxes from the packing station and sorts them by shipping type, depositing them directly into bins with labels like "USPS". Claire Harbage/NPR 
That appeals to Beatty, too, once he learns that Amazon has robots to bring the shelves to workers, instead of workers walking the aisles in search of products.
"That would be pretty cool," he says, "to see a robot bring some of your work to you."

1 comments:

cartoonityvuehouston said...

A lack of awareness & an optimism bias for sure. This is probably not something most are even thinking about....

According to a report by McKinsey Global Institute: "By 2030, in the U.S., 39 million to 73 million jobs could be destroyed, but about 20 million of those displaced workers can be shifted fairly easily into similar occupations, though they may take on slightly different tasks, the report says. That means 16 million to 54 million workers — or as much as a third of the U.S. workforce — will need to be retrained for entirely new occupations."

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