Netflix Value Tops $100 Billion As Global Subscription Growth Shatters Estimates

It's market value now the equivalent of that enjoyed by Goldman Sachs, Netflix is poised to for further growth due to strong international uptake and the continued spread of streaming. JL 

Lucas Shaw reports in Bloomberg:

$100 billion in market value put (it) on a perch with Goldman Sachs. Netflix added 24 million customers in 2017, bringing its global total to 117.6 million. Earnings tripled from a year prior. International accounted for the bulk of the subscriber growth and hold the key to Netflix’s future. That success has inspired Facebook, Apple and Amazon to try original programming. It also spurred Disney to invest more in online services and acquire competitors. Yet Netflix enjoys a head start on all.
Netflix Inc. surged after a blow-out quarter, vaulting past $100 billion in market value for the first time to put the video service on a lofty perch with the likes of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Qualcomm Inc. The world’s largest online TV network late Monday reported its strongest year of subscriber growth to date. Netflix added 24 million customers in 2017, bringing its global total to 117.6 million. For the final three months of the year, the Los Gatos, California-based company crushed Wall Street estimates and suggested it will continue to do so in 2018.

While rival media companies merge, fire staff and fret about the future of their businesses, Netflix keeps chugging along, adding customers at home, in Europe and Latin America. Fourth-quarter sales grew by a third to $3.29 billion, the company said, while earnings almost tripled from a year prior to 41 cents, meeting estimates.

Netflix will plow all of that and more into new TV shows and movies. The company has said it will spend as much as $8 billion on programming this year, and disclosed Monday it will shell out another $2 billion for marketing. Netflix is also dramatically increasing its non-English programming, with plans to release 30 local language productions in 2018.
The shares rose as much as 13 percent to $257.71 in New York, marking a new high for the stock, which had already gained 19 percent this year through Monday.
Netflix signed up 8.33 million customers in the fourth quarter, surpassing analysts’ estimates of 6.34 million, thanks in large part to the popularity of the fantasy series “Stranger Things” and the new Will Smith movie “Bright.”
That success has inspired Facebook Inc., Apple Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. to try their hand at original programming. It has also spurred rivals like Walt Disney Co. to invest more in online services and acquire competitors. Yet Netflix enjoys a head start on all those players.

International Gains

International territories accounted for the bulk of the subscriber growth and hold the key to Netflix’s future, with additions of 6.36 million topping the 5.05 million average of analysts’ estimates. Netflix said Rodolphe Belmer, the chief executive officer of Paris-based Eutelsat Communications SA, will join its board.

The U.S. business, where growth had been slowing, also showed vigor. The company signed up 1.98 million new customers at home, up from a year ago and beating analysts’ projections of 1.29 million, according to Bloomberg data.
Netflix churns out a wide range of new shows every month to entice new viewers and keep old ones. In the latest quarter it also released “The Crown,” the first season of David Fincher’s “Mindhunter” and its first original German series, “Dark.”
“In only five years since launching our first original series, Netflix had three of the top five most searched TV shows globally for the second year in a row,” the company said in its letter to shareholders.
Netflix expects to add 6.35 million customers in the first quarter, more than the average 5.18 million projection of analysts. That includes 1.45 million new subscribers in the U.S.

Quarterly Profit

Splurging on new shows comes at a cost. Netflix will burn through as much as $4 billion in cash this year and said it will borrow again. Critical analysts continue to wonder when spending will level off. The company has stayed around break even for most of its existence, but continues to need cash because of lavish spending on programming.
Long-term debt stood at $6.5 billion at year-end, while long-term content liabilities totaled $3.33 billion.
The ability to raise prices could boost Netflix’s profitability in the long-term. The company’s October price increase -- $1 a month for the most popular plan -- had little impact, if any, on growth in the quarter. While a previous increase slowed subscriber gains, this one passed with less scrutiny or media coverage. The most popular plan costs $11.