Why What's Next For Tech May Not Be It's Decision

China is far more powerful than it was when the tech revolution of the dotcom era started the current trend. And that country is interested in its own interests, not those of tech entrepreneurs.

But a greater factor - and larger irony - is that tech originally positioned itself as a revolution in which power would accrue to 'the people' with access to technology. That that may now come to pass will cause tech companies to be careful of what they wish for. JL



Christopher Mims reports in the Wall Street Journal:

The most important factors in the spread of technology are now cultural. When novel software can go from hackathon to app store overnight, and even complex hardware can hit manufacturing lines in months, the determining factor of success is us—as consumers, workers, even regulators. While some people will help automation along, others will resist it. A future with the ability to see all the data companies collect on you, and to correct or delete it is driven by our collective realization that these “free” services come with a cost.
If it feels like new technologies go from flights of fancy to billion-dollar businesses faster than ever, that’s because they do.
Consider that Uber, founded in 2009, started allowing drivers to sign up with their own cars in 2013. Five short years later, the company operates in more than 70 countries and competes with dozens of copycats. It’s considering going public in 2019 at a potential valuation of $120 billion, which would make it the biggest IPO in U.S. history by far.
When novel software can go from hackathon to app store overnight, and even complex hardware can hit manufacturing lines in months, the determining factor of success is us—as consumers, workers, even regulators. If the pitch works and we bite, a technology can quickly transform our social norms.
At the WSJ Tech D.Live conference in Laguna Beach, Calif., this week, what became apparent across dozens of talks, classes and informal chats is that, when almost anything we can dream up is possible, the most important factors in the spread of technology are now cultural. Not every new development in technology leads to an Uber-scale industry, of course, but here are five trends that highlight this shift.
China’s success in addressing tech needs at home has made it a global leader. As Googlestruggles with walkouts and morale at Facebook craters, many workers at Chinese startups are so committed to their work that they’ve adopted a grueling schedule called 996—9 a.m. to 9 p.m., six days a week. In 2018, China will eclipse the U.S. in spending on R&D, projects the National Science Board.
Patrick Collison, chief executive of Stripe, talked about how much of Asia is leapfrogging the West because there isn’t tons of old infrastructure—like gas-guzzling car fleets—to update, so the latest technology catches on right away. In China, this is especially true in payments, which are now overwhelmingly made through mobile phones. The world’s leading face-recognition and drone companies are in China, and its electric-vehicle, autonomous-driving and AI companies are already on par with their U.S. counterparts, said Kai-Fu Lee, former president of Google China and current head of technology-investment firm Sinovation Ventures.
China’s mission rests on techies dedicated to building the future for its billion-plus population—achieving global technological dominance en route.
Uber isn’t yet profitable—but it’s already successfully changed us. If you believe Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi, the total addressable market for all of Uber’s many services—principally freight, transportation and food delivery—is $6 trillion.
We no longer get to call Uber “just a taxi company” because it’s also altering our use of personal vehicles, mass transit and food delivery. The Uber Eats food-delivery experiment is expected to do $6 billion in food sales annually (shared with its restaurant partners), Mr. Khosrowshahi said.
However, in anticipation of its 2019 IPO, Uber already releases financial information, so we know how much its success costs: Uber lost a mind-boggling $1.07 billion in the past quarter and has said it doesn’t expect to make a profit for at least three years. Throw in an ever-growing array of other competing transportation services, and Uber’s path to profitability is less clear than ever.
Uber has always been a bet on our changing habits as much as the power of new technologies. For the company to live up to its lofty valuation, many more of us are going to have to buy the company’s thesis that we should ditch our cars entirely and just take Uber instead.
Sweeping regulations are coming for tech companies. With Democrats in control of the House, Representatives Ro Khanna, a Democrat who represents Silicon Valley, and Darrell Issa, a retiring California Republican, agreed at the WSJ conference that we might now see passage of bipartisan “thoughtful” legislation intended to safeguard our data and our privacy.
Tech companies are guardedly in favor; they’d rather have uniform federal regulation than some patchwork of state rules. At the conference, AT&T CEO Randall Stephenson reiterated his support for basic provisions of net neutrality; his words harked back to his January letter to Congress pushing for an “internet bill of rights.” Mr. Khosrowshahi said Uber is working with regulators already. California has already passed data-privacy protections, and Europe’s GDPR may be a model as well. That means a future with way more pop-ups on every site you use, but also possibly the ability to see all the data companies collect on you, and to correct or delete it. This is all driven by our collective realization that these “free” services come with a privacy cost.
We wanted flying cars…and now we’re going to get flying cars. The same year that Uber began to invite drivers to use their own cars, venture capitalist and Facebook board member Peter Thiel bemoaned the slow pace of technological advancement. We wanted flying cars and we got 140 characters, he said, instantly making himself part of a tradition of prognosticators who confused their own momentary disillusionment with the end of history.
At the WSJ Tech conference, Rodin Lyasoff, head of Airbus’s Silicon Valley innovation lab, pointed out that a number of flying-car prototypes already exist, including the Kitty Hawk flying car (which the Journal has reviewed) and his company’s Vahana experimental aircraft.
What makes flying cars distinct from today’s helicopters is that they are smaller and lighter, all electric, and are eventually meant to be fully autonomous. Hobbyists and thrill seekers could be flying them tomorrow except for one very important cultural barrier: Nobody wants flight-safety statistics, which are currently fantastic, to worsen. This means all aircraft that will be used for commercial services must continue to go through FAA certification. Even under the best of circumstances, Mr. Lyasoff said it would take a couple of years and a billion dollars to convert one of these prototypes into a flying car that a company could sell.
Commercial flying-car services are coming—the question is, will it be in two years or 20? It all depends on when we view flying-car tech as safe enough for widespread adoption.
In the future, the top jobs are robot engineer and elder caregiver. There’s strong evidence that all routine labor—both physical and mental—is headed toward automation, Mr. Lee of Sinovation Ventures said. This will have profound effects on the nature of work.
While it will certainly take more than five years for the workforce of the future to take shape, it will require a lot of engineers and technicians, mainly for R&D.
But while some people will help automation along, others will resist it. Jobs requiring warmth and compassion will likely still be filled by humans, because the people being cared for don’t want robots in that role. Chief among these occupations will be looking after the world’s elderly.
Not incidentally, Mr. Lee believes that journalism will be among the fields that will be largely automated, so readers should enjoy this column while it lasts.