As if Uber's own stumbles were not enough to deter investors, the precipitous post-IPO decline of primary competitor, Lyft's stock, has raised questions about where the once-unassailable behemoth might be going.
Among other challenges, increasing urbanization and its attendant traffic jams (caused, in part, by the precipitous growth of ride hailing cars) are leading to growing demand for congestion pricing which may make ride hailing services less competitive.
Uber's valuation remains stratospheric, but given the paucity of data about both current performance and real prospects, this remains a speculative venture in its present form. The big early investors will probably get out (mostly) whole. As for everyone else... JL
Ben Thompson reports in Stratechery:
After all of these years, and all these theoretical arguments about
Uber’s potential, all we have are clichés about small pieces of gigantic
markets and numbers that reveal nothing concrete about the
business. Driver availability and liquidity will continue to be differentiating factors. The most likely go-to-market for autonomous cars is via the ride-sharing networks, not as a substitute. Lyft is one of the best ways for investors to bet on Waymo, and the
more money that Lyft has, the more Uber will struggle for profitability
in the markets in which they compete. (And) self-driving cars may emerge in markets that Uber cannot enter, like China.