A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Apr 26, 2020

Is This the End of the Global Economy As We Know It?

The global economy depends on trust.

But between China's failures to honestly report the health crisis and the US's failure to act sensibly and effectively - in addition to already concerning behaviors from both - belief in the two largest global economies has collapsed. The question is whether the web of interdependence is too crucial to unwind or whether survival dictates that an alternative is required. JL


Neil Irwin reports in the New York Times:

Crises bring to the fore issues that are easy to ignore in good times. One candidate is globalization, in which companies can move production wherever it’s most efficient, people can hop on a plane and go anywhere, and money can flow to wherever it will be put to its highest use. A world economy with the United States at its center was already falling apart. There are signs Covid-19 crisis is cementing those changes. Trade as a share of global G.D.P. peaked in 2008 and has trended lower ever since. “There will be a rethink of how much any country wants to be reliant on any other country.”
When big convulsive economic events happen, the implications tend to take years to play out, and spiral in unpredictable directions.
Who would have thought that a crisis that began with mortgage defaults in American suburbs in 2007 would lead to a fiscal crisis in Greece in 2010? Or that a stock market crash in New York in 1929 would contribute to the rise of fascists in Europe in the 1930s?
The world economy is an infinitely complicated web of interconnections. We each have a series of direct economic relationships we can see: the stores we buy from, the employer that pays our salary, the bank that makes us a home loan. But once you get two or three levels out, it’s really impossible to know with any confidence how those connections work.
And that, in turn, shows what is unnerving about the economic calamity accompanying the spread of the novel coronavirus.
In the years ahead, we will learn what happens when that web is torn apart, when millions of those links are destroyed all at once. And it opens the possibility of a global economy completely different from the one that has prevailed in recent decades.
“As much as I hope we are able to get ordinary economic activity back up, that’s just the beginning of our problem,” said Adam Tooze, a historian at Columbia University and author of “Crashed,” a study of the extensive global ripple effects of the 2008 financial crisis. “This is a period of radical uncertainty, an order of magnitude greater than anything we’re used to.”
It would be foolish, amid such uncertainty, to make overly confident predictions about how the world economic order will look in five years, or even in five months.
But one lesson of these episodes of economic tumult is that those surprising ripple effects tend to result from longstanding unaddressed frailties. Crises have a way of bringing to the fore issues that are easy to ignore in good times.
One obvious candidate is globalization, in which companies can move production wherever it’s most efficient, people can hop on a plane and go nearly anywhere, and money can flow to wherever it will be put to its highest use. The idea of a world economy with the United States at its center was already falling apart, between the rise of China and America’s own turn toward nationalism.
There are signs that the Covid-19 crisis is exaggerating, and possibly cementing, those changes.
“There will be a rethink of how much any country wants to be reliant on any other country,” said Elizabeth Economy, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. “I don’t think fundamentally this is the end of globalization. But this does accelerate the type of thinking that has been going on in the Trump administration, that there are critical technologies, critical resources, reserve manufacturing capacity that we want here in the U.S. in case of crisis.”
Consider just a few pieces of evidence for the weakening underpinnings of globalization.
France’s finance minister directed French companies to re-evaluate their supply chains to become less dependent on China and other Asian nations. U.S. Customs and Border Protection has said it will seize exports of certain medical supplies. And on Friday, Senator Lindsey Graham suggested that the United States should punish China for failing to contain the virus by canceling debt the Chinese government owns — a step that would risk the role of U.S. Treasury bonds as the bedrock of the world financial system.
Even before the coronavirus hit, the limits of globalization were becoming clearer.
Trade as a share of global G.D.P. peaked in 2008 and has trended lower ever since. The election of President Trump and the onset of a trade war with China had already made multinational companies start to rethink their operations.
“I think companies are actively talking about resilience,” said Susan Lund, a partner at McKinsey who studies global interconnectedness. “To what extent would companies be willing to sacrifice quarter-to-quarter efficiency for resilience over the long term, whether that’s natural disasters, the climate crisis, pandemics or other shocks?”
She envisions not so much a full-scale retreat from global trade as a shift toward regional trade blocs and greater emphasis on having companies build redundancy into their supply networks. Governments will probably insist that certain goods, like pharmaceuticals and medical equipment, rely more on domestic production given the current global scramble for those items.
China has reoriented its economic strategy, aiming to be not a low-cost manufacturing hub for the world but the maker of technologically advanced products like aircraft and telecommunications equipment. That has made Americans, Europeans and the Japanese all the more reluctant to have major operations in China, for fear of intellectual property theft.
Under the Trump administration, the United States has experienced strain with even traditional allies in Western Europe. Put it all together, and a more every-nation-for-itself mentality was already becoming ingrained before Covid-19, in ways the pandemic seems to be reinforcing.
“What typically happens after you get a crisis like this is people talk about new eras and how the post-pandemic world will be different,” said Ruchir Sharma, chief global strategist at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. “This time I think the trends that were already in motion before this pandemic will be accelerated.”
In a past episode of de-globalization — the unwinding of global commerce that took place amid World War I and the 1918 flu epidemic — there was also a remaking of the global financial system, with the British pound losing its pre-eminence.
That kind of thing could plausibly happen this time too, but initial signs point the other way: toward the dollar’s becoming even more entrenched at the center of the global financial system.
The U.S. Federal Reserve has opened swap lines with 14 overseas central banks — which enables them to pump dollars into their domestic banking systems — and started a novel program that lets other countries obtain dollars by pledging Treasury bonds as collateral. Those moves are helping ensure that a global dollar shortage doesn’t paralyze the world economy.
European officials have been reluctant to take steps that would make the euro more central to the world currency system, such as issuing bonds that are jointly guaranteed by the countries of the eurozone. And China has, if anything, been reluctant to remake its financial system in ways that could enable the renminbi to become more crucial to world commerce, such as allowing free capital flows in and out of the currency.
Mark Carney, the former governor of the Bank of England, delivered an influential speech to fellow central bankers last August arguing that the current international monetary and financial system, with its deep dollar dependence, was unsustainable. But the pandemic may be entrenching that flawed system.
“The dollar system is inherently unstable, but so is a bicycle,” said Mr. Tooze, the historian. “They’re unstable, but if you’re a skilled rider of them, they’re great. And the Fed has demonstrated it’s a skilled rider of the dollar hegemony bike.”
At times over the last 12 years, it has felt as if the world were reliving the period of 1918 to 1939, but as if told by a forgetful student who was getting the events out of order. That era also featured a global financial collapse; a rise of authoritarian governments; the emergence of a new economic superpower (the United States then, China now); and a pandemic, though not in that sequence.
We may not know exactly where this crisis will lead, for the world economy or anything else. But one thing seems clear: History sure can be scary when you don’t know how it ends.

35 comments:

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Be warned, most of these hackers called here are imposters, I know how real hackers work, they never advertise in such a gullible way and they are always discreet. I was tricked so many times out of desperation trying to find urgent help to change my grades from school, finally my friend introduced me to a group of trusted hackers who work with discretion and delivery promptly, they do all sorts of hacking that you be be shock to believe
+Database Hacking,
+Spying and monitoring of any device
+School grade hack,
+Company records and systems,
+Bank Account Hacks,
+Clearing of Criminal records of diverse types,
+VPN Software,
+Monitoring of GPS locations,
+Bank transfer, Western Union, Money Gram, Credit Card transfer,
+Bank Account Hacks,
+Credit score increase
+University Grades Hack,
+Any social media platform hack,
+Retrieval of lost documents
+Facebook Hacking Tricks,
+Email hack: Gmail, AOL, Yahoomail, Proton-mail etc,
+Mobile phone (call and text message Hacking are available also)
+ATM hack,
+Retrieval of lost documents, etc..
Contact them at= WIZARDBRIXTON@GMAIL.COM

Alex said...

Never met any hacker as discreet and fast like this Best System Hackers. They are called WhiteHats and they has helped me in multiple ways first was when my ex spouse cheated on me- they got me every information from my spouse phone number and now they are helping me paying my credit cards debts. They have the best hacking tools plus service any one can ever imagine and I recommend him to the world. I am thankful and grateful for the second chance. Honestly, Best System hackers are life savers please contact them here if you need their swift service Email; BESTSYSTEMHACKSOLUTION@GMAIL.COM or text him on WhatsApp +1 (602) 609-4730 he is very trustworthy.

mike said...

I just have to introduce this hacker that I have been working with him on getting my credit score been boosted across the Equifax, TransUnion and Experian report. He made a lot of good changes on my credit report by erasing all the past eviction, bad collections and DUI off my credit report history and also increased my FICO score above 876 across my three credit bureaus report you can contatc him for all kind of hacks . Email him here via Email him here via hackintechnology@cyberservices.com or whatsapp Number: +1 213 295 1376.

Yerins Scott said...

Most of these so called hackers are imposters, I’ve been ripped off a couple times before i luckily got a reliable contact his name is Jimmy . A hacker that works with discretion and does all sorts of hacks, I would prefer to let his services speak for itself, if interested in getting your credit score increased, erasing DUI, breaking into credit bureaus, clearing bankrupcies(depends on amount) etc you can contact him at thejimcybertechAtgmailDotcom You surely will thank me!!

MARIA PEREZ said...

If You Are Trying To Catch Your Cheating Spouse In The Act, I Strongly Recommend You Contact This Awesome Hacker That Helped Me Monitor My Husband’s Phone When I Was Gathering Evidence During The Divorce. I Got Virtually Every Information She Has Been Hiding Over The Months Easily On My Own Phone: The Spy App Diverted All Her Whatsapp, Facebook, Text Messages, Sent And Received Through The Phone: I Also Got Her Phone Calls And Deleted Messages. She Could Not Believe Her Eyes When She Saw The Evidence Because She Had No Idea She Was Hacked, I Didn’t Need To Touch Her Phone At all,.I Certainly Recommend Contact: “WhitehatstechAtgmailDotcom ”

WE OFFER ALL KIND OF LOANS - APPLY FOR AFFORDABLE LOANS said...

Do you need a quick long or short term Loan with a relatively low interest rate as low as 3%? We offer business Loan, personal Loan, home Loan, auto Loan,student Loan, debt consolidation Loan e.t.c. no matter your credit score.
Personal Loans (Secure and Unsecured)
Business Loans (Secure and Unsecured)
Consolidation Loan and many more.

Contact US for more information about Loan offer and we will solve your
financial problem. contact us via email: muthooth.finance@gmail.com
Phone number: +917428831341 (Call/Whats app)
Mr. Mike Morgan

ritaa vazquez said...

I was completely in debt and unsure what to do with my life until I discovered the darkweb site TheHackerspro.com on the internet, which had excellent testimonials in many blogs about credit restoration and how good the organization is.
So I started a case and outlined all of my problems to him, as well as requesting all of my details.
I was first paranoid since I didn't feel comfortable disclosing my personal information.
I ultimately did, and He helped me delete all of the negative items and the eviction off my credit record, late payments were marked as paid, and my credit score increased to 795 great, allowing me to get approved for car loans, house loans, and everything else.
He also assisted me in repaying all of my credit card obligations.
He's genuine, truthful, and trustworthy although quite pricey than others i contacted.

Bloomberg Incorporations said...

IS IT POSSIBLE TO GET A SUCCESSFUL RECOVERY OF YOUR FUNDS LOST TO FAKE/ILLEGAL CRYPTO WEBSITES OR ANY ONLINE FRAUDSTER/ FRAUDSTERS?
ABSOLUTELY, YES!

☣️BEWARE OF FRAUDSTERS looking to hoax.
If you have had an encounter with any of the following fraudulent schemes; fake brokers, fake bitcoin investment platforms, forex trade, binary option, false investments proposals. If you have been a VICTIM, you are reading the right post 👍🏻

BLOOMBERG Inc. is a group of international cyber security specialists bound by one sole aim, which is to render state of the art services involving ethical hacking.

Ladies and gentlemen, I must warn you that the internet isn't quite a safe haven, as consistent research has found out that 62.24% of people you interact with on the net do not exist. Hence, you must trade with caution ⚠️. For this reason, Bloomberg Incorporation was founded in the year 2005 and ever since have been trending for successfully carrying out various hacking jobs.

🔹OUR SERVICES🔹
☑️Binary Option funds recovery
☑️Social media hack
☑️Recovery of loan scam
☑️Credit repair (Equifax,Experian,Transunion)
☑️Website hack
☑️Website design
☑️College score upgrade
☑️Email hack
And lots more.

DISCLAIMER: Bloomberg Incorporations accepts no responsibility for any information, previously given to anybody by clients on as regarding the job. Bloomberg Inc. will not distribute contact information collected on any hacking job other than in the Bloomberg Hacker's listings themselves, and will not sell contact information to third parties.

Your happiness is our priority!

CONTACT INFO:
📧bloomberghackers@gmail.com
📧exploithackersinn@gmail.com
WhatsApp🤳: +1 (336) 582‑0239‬

Copyright ©
Bloomberg Incorporations 2021.
All rights reserved.

Scott said...

I recommend professional expert Email: SWIFTACCESS37 <<<(at)>> GMAILdotCOM for Recovery Funds / Cryptocurrency / Recovery of Stolen Bitcoin. I don't know who needs this but I'll just leave this out here incase anyone needs it.

RICHARD J SMITH said...

These set of superior Cyber terrorist Known as WhitehatstechAtgmailDotcom have been in service for more than a decade and they have set an extremely impressive records that no Hacker can break,  they have the best hacking tools any one can ever imagine. I prefer to let their work speak for itself if interested in getting your credit score increased, erasing DUI, breaking into credit bureaus, clearing bankrupcies, student loans, credit cards loans, phone hack or spy and many more! The WHITECOLLARS are the best in what they do and I am happy they are here to help the world. Email them or communicate with them via Whitehatstech@gmail.com or WhatApp +18189256165 and thank me later

Jenkins Cooper said...

THIS IS THE BEST THING THAT HAS EVER HAPPENED TO ME
I was scammed of $379,000 worth of bitcoin with a scam forest investment unknowingly then,
I didn’t know what to do.. I felt like committing suicide, but fortunately for me, my friend introduced me to a cyber crime investigator ( Mr Morris Gray )who also helps in recovering lost invested funds, After working with him, to my greatest surprise, in just few days I got all my lost funds back, and he only took just 15% out of the recovered funds, if you have been scammed with fake forex you don’t need to be scared or worried, because you can also reach him on his email: MorrisGray830@ gmail .com
He will recover your lost bitcoins back fast and smoothly...
You can WhatsApp him via +1 (607) 698-0239.
And you will be amazed….!!!

Taylor said...

I just have to introduce this hacker that I have been working with him on getting my credit score been boosted across the Equifax, TransUnion and Experian report. He made a lot of good changes on my credit report by erasing all the past eviction, bad collections and DUI off my credit report history and also increased my FICO score above 876 across my three credit bureaus report you can contact him for all kind of hacks . Email him here support@wavedrive.tech go on their website wavedrive.tech for more details,Whatsapp No:+14106350697 if you want to chat them up,One thing i can assure you would not regret this at all he is 100% legit

Anonymous said...

IS IT POSSIBLE TO GET A SUCCESSFUL RECOVERY OF YOUR FUNDS LOST TO FAKE/ILLEGAL CRYPTO WEBSITES OR ANY ONLINE FRAUDSTER/ FRAUDSTERS?
ABSOLUTELY, YES! BUT, YOU MUST CONTACT THE RIGHT AGENCY TO ACHIEVE THIS.

Bloomberg Incorporation is a financial regulator, private investigation and funds recovery body bound by one sole aim. We specialize in cases concerning cryptocurrency, FAKE investment schemes and recovery scam.

BEWARE OF FRAUDSTERS looking to hoax.
If you have had an encounter with any of the following fraudulent schemes; fake brokers, fake bitcoin investment platforms, forex trade, binary option, false investments proposals. If you have been a VICTIM, you are reading the right post.

Contact our customer support team via the information below to get started.
Email: bloomberghackers@gmail.com
WhatsApp: ‪+1 (336) 582‑0239‬

BE WISE. STAY SAFE!

Copyright ©
Bloomberg Incorporations 2022.
All rights reserved.

Richard Meadows said...

Cant believe my wife has been having an affair with our family doctor. All thanks to darkhatthacker@gmail.com it’s unbelievable but that is the fact, after reading there text messages and WhatsApp messages it really showed a lot that they are in an intimate relationship. Thank God for darkhatthacker@gmail.com

Kimberly Toney said...

The rate of divorce out there shows that a lot of partners out there have ulterior motives in our marriages so most of us end up divorcing our partners just like I did few months back with my partner, my advice to people is to always find out who your partner is before going down to the alter for marriage, I got to know about this hacker called verifiedprohackers@gmail.com. January 2022 tho never believed in his services till I was able to use his services. After the phone hack was completed I found out that my so called spouse has a baby mama outside which he never disclosed to me but with the help of this hacker I hacked into his phone and went deep down into his deleted messages and that was how I got to know about my spouse having baby mama. My spouse gets to delete every of there conversations between him and his baby mama, but with this hacker I was able to unveil all. verifiedprohackers@gmail.com am really thankful.

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