US Deaths Above Normal Analysis Reveals Covid Toll Greater Than 200,000

Like almost all data associated with the Covid pandemic, deaths attributed to the virus have become politicized.

But an analysis of historic death trends compared with deaths over the past five months reveal that the pandemic's toll may be considerably higher than reported and that those numbers will continue to grow due to testing and reporting lags. Getting the numbers right matters because it helps manage the allocation of scarce resources, including vaccines when available. JL 

Denise Lu reports in the New York Times:

200,000 more people have died than usual since March. This number is about 60,000 higher than the number of deaths that have been directly linked to the coronavirus. As the pandemic has moved south and west from its epicenter in New York City, so have the unusual patterns in deaths from all causes. That suggests official death counts may be underestimating the overall effects of the virus. Comparing recent totals of deaths from all causes can provide a more complete picture of the pandemic’s impact than tracking only deaths of people with confirmed diagnoses.

Nationwide, 200,000 more people have died than usual since March. This number is about 60,000 higher than the number of deaths that have been directly linked to the coronavirus.

As the pandemic has moved south and west from its epicenter in New York City, so have the unusual patterns in deaths from all causes. That suggests that the official death counts may be substantially underestimating the overall effects of the virus.

When the coronavirus first took hold in the United States in March, the bulk of deaths above normal levels, or “excess deaths,” were in the Northeast, as New York and New Jersey saw huge surges.

The Northeast still makes up nearly half of all excess deaths in the country, though numbers in the region have drastically declined since the peak in April, according to a New York Times analysis of estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

But as the number of hot spots expanded, so has the number of excess deaths across other parts of the country. Many of the recent coronavirus cases and deaths in the South and the West may have been driven largely by reopenings and relaxed social distancing restrictions.

Counting deaths takes time and many states are weeks or months behind in reporting. The estimates from the C.D.C. are adjusted based on how mortality data has lagged in previous years. Even with this adjustment, it’s possible there could be an underestimate of the complete death toll if increased mortality is causing states to lag more than they have in the past or if states have changed their reporting systems.

But comparing recent totals of deaths from all causes can provide a more complete picture of the pandemic’s impact than tracking only deaths of people with confirmed diagnoses.

Weekly deaths above normal in each state

Nine of the 13 states in the South started seeing excess deaths surge in July, months into the pandemic. A spike in cases in places like Texas put pressure on hospitals, echoing the chaos that ensued in New York months earlier. South Carolina, among the first states to reopen retail stores, saw deaths reach 1.6 times normal levels in mid-July. 

Unlike other states in this region, Louisiana saw its excess deaths peak in April — when total deaths reached 1.7 times normal levels. Medical experts said Mardi Gras gatherings most likely contributed to this spike.

In July, coronavirus deaths in Arizona surged, though new daily cases have since decreased. In California, the first state to issue a stay-at-home order this spring, coronavirus deaths are now climbing, after a reopening that some health officials warned was too fast.In the Midwest, some states like Michigan and Illinois saw their peaks in April. Detroit was particularly hard hit by the virus.

New York City in the first few months of the pandemic was the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak, and it was plagued by staggering death totals, which peaked at more than seven times normal levels. Other areas of the Northeast, including New Jersey, Massachusetts and Connecticut also saw early surges. Over all, rates have decreased significantly since then in much of the region.