Why Pandemic Holiday Shoppers Need To Prepare Now For Delivery 'Shipageddon'

Amazon had a hard enough time just managing increased pandemic purchasing. 

Piling holiday shopping volume in addition to that is going to lead to delays and lost shipments as FedEx and UPS are already predicting that their physical capacity to move packages will max out weeks before Christmas. JL

Shira Ovide reports in the New York Times:

The combination of reliance on online shopping during a pandemic and eagerness for online shopping during the holidays has e-commerce experts predicting a “shipageddon” in the US; delays and chaos as parcel companies already stretched thin tackle a surge in holiday packages. If buying online or sending holiday gifts, it might take far longer than in previous years. (And) retailers have less merchandise stocked than usual for the holidays because the pandemic disrupted inventory planning (so) you’re not likely to get cut-rate prices on Black Friday or the week before Christmas because stores won’t discount merchandise already in short supply.

Online shopping has exploded during the pandemic. The holidays are approaching. What happens when these two forces collide?

The combination of our reliance on online shopping during a pandemic and our eagerness for online shopping during the holidays has made some e-commerce experts predict a “shipageddon” in the United States — delays and chaos as parcel companies already stretched thin also tackle a surge in holiday packages.

Retailers are sweating over how they’re going to move merchandise among their stores and handle extra expenses to deliver orders. And people who rely on home delivery might need to plan ahead for possible bottlenecks.

The potential for hiccups shows the complications when our zeal for shopping from home meets the physical limits of humans, warehouses stuffed to the rafters, roadways and ocean freight shipping. There’s always been a war to get stuff to our door. It’s just been one we usually ignore.

The problem is simple: Many of our buying habits completely changed in the pandemic, and our delivery networks cannot keep up. You might already have encountered this with weekslong delays on some Amazon orders or waking up at 4 a.m. to get an open slot from a grocery delivery company.

Parcel companies like FedEx and UPS already struggle to handle extra orders each holiday season, and they’re expecting Christmas 2020 to stretch them to the limits. To try to discourage deliveries they can’t handle, the delivery companies have announced larger-than-usual additional fees for larger retailers during the holiday.

The practical tips for people planning their holiday shopping: If you’re that person who waits until the last minute … don’t. Really.

If you’re buying online or sending holiday gifts to loved ones by mail, it might take far longer than it has in previous years. The Postal Service is almost pleading with people to mail Christmas gifts early. (And if you rely on e-commerce sites for diapers or other household essentials, it’s probably not a bad idea to build a buffer ahead of potential end-of-year shipping delays.)

Jason Goldberg, the chief commerce strategy officer at the advertising giant Publicis who goes by the nickname “Retail Geek,” also said that retailers have less merchandise stocked up than usual for the holidays because the pandemic disrupted their typical inventory planning.

That means you’re not likely to get cut-rate prices on Black Friday or the week before Christmas, because stores won’t discount merchandise that’s already in short supply. If there is a particular gift that you have your heart set on, it might not be there if you wait.

People may also want to consider alternatives to home delivery around the holidays. Ordering online for curbside pickup at stores, for example, skips strained delivery systems. Retailers are also trying alternative delivery options, including sending orders from local stores via couriers working for companies like Instacart and Shipt.

Scot Wingo, co-founder of ChannelAdvisor, which helps businesses sell online, said companies like Target that both have physical stores and ship a lot of home deliveries from their stores don’t rely as much on overwhelmed parcel companies. “That gives them an escape valve for shipageddon,” he said.

One silver lining in the potential holiday shopping drama is that it makes the invisible more visible. Just as the pandemic has made me appreciate the work of grocery clerks, health care workers, bus drivers, restaurant staffers and other sometimes overlooked people, it has also made plain the complexities of our shopping lives.

Those mouse clicks on Amazon or Target have always set in motion a chaotic ballet of warehouse workers, truck drivers, parcel delivery couriers and more, but we mostly didn’t think about it. The shipping delays this year might reveal the strains at the seams, but they’ve always been there.