A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

May 7, 2021

Pfizer and Moderna Covid Vaccine Profits Already In Billions

Government purchases of Covid vaccines are proving to be extraordinary - and to continue. JL

Peter Loftus and Matt Grossman report in the Wall Street Journal, Michelle Fleury reports in the BBC:

The vaccine brought Moderna revenue of $1.73 billion in the first quarter, reflecting three full months of its use in the U.S. and international sales. Moderna also boosted its full-year forecast of Covid-19 vaccine sales to $19.2 billion. Pfizer said it was expecting "durable demand" for the vaccine, in a similar way to flu vaccines. In the first three months of 2021, the vaccine generated revenues of $3.5bn (£2.5bn). Revenue from the treatment is expected to hit $26bn this year - accounting for more than one third of Pfizer's sales.

Wall Street Journal: Moderna Inc.’s MRNA +2.75% Covid-19 vaccine lifted the biotech company to its first-ever quarterly profit, a milestone in the rise of a company that burst into the spotlight last year as it rapidly developed a shot against the coronavirus.

The vaccine brought Moderna revenue of $1.73 billion in the first quarter, reflecting three full months of its use in the U.S. and initial international sales, the company said Thursday.

Moderna also boosted its full-year forecast of Covid-19 vaccine sales to $19.2 billion, based on advance purchase agreements, from $18.4 billion it previously predicted.

The forecast points to a booming market for Covid-19 vaccines, as Pfizer Inc. this week said the Covid-19 vaccine it makes with BioNTech SE could generate $26 billion in sales this year.

Yet the prospect of a temporary loss of vaccine patents clouded the bright performance and outlook.

The Biden administration said Wednesday it would support a temporary waiver of Covid-19 vaccine intellectual-property protections, to allow developing nations to produce drugmakers’ vaccines. If the World Trade Organization waives the protections, companies or organizations aside from Moderna and other Covid-19 vaccine makers could make shots using public patents without risk of legal challenges.

Investors’ concerns that the patent waiver could limit vaccine sales for drugmakers have contributed to share-price declines for Pfizer Inc., Moderna and other Covid-19 vaccine developers. Moderna shares were down 4% mid-morning Thursday after a 6% drop on Wednesday.


Moderna Chief Executive Stephane Bancel told analysts and investors a temporary waiver wouldn’t affect the company. “It doesn’t change anything for Moderna. We had said last October we would not enforce our Covid-19 related patents during the pandemic,” he said.

Mr. Bancel also said a patent waiver wouldn’t address supply challenges quickly, particularly for vaccines like Moderna’s that use a newer technology, messenger RNA. He said the technology is complex and there is no idle manufacturing capacity for mRNA vaccines or untapped pool of skilled employees.

“We believe this will not help supply more mRNA vaccines to the world any faster in 2021 and 2022,” Mr. Bancel said. The best way to end the pandemic, he added, is what Moderna is currently doing, maximizing its supply this year and adding capacity to boost supplies next year.

Moderna, based in Cambridge, Mass., recognized 102 million doses as revenue in the quarter and said it expects to deliver 200 million to 250 million doses in the April-to-June period.

Vaccine sales were by far the largest contributor to Moderna’s total revenue, which rose to $1.94 billion, from $8 million a year earlier. Total revenue also includes grant and collaboration revenue.

The company logged a profit of $1.22 billion, or $2.84 a share, compared with a loss of $124 million, or 35 cents a share, in 2020’s first quarter.

Moderna reported a relatively high profit margin for the first quarter—net income was 63% of revenue—partly because it had built up an inventory of vaccine doses and previously expensed them as research costs, before the vaccine was authorized in December, the company said. Working through that inventory during the first quarter limited its cost of goods sold to about 10% of total sales for the quarter. A more normal rate of cost of goods sold going forward will be about 20%, which would cut margins from first-quarter levels, said SVB Leerink analyst Mani Foroohar.

Moderna’s work on Covid-19 vaccines has transformed the company in the space of a year. As of the end of March, its workforce had grown to about 1,500 people, from about 830 people a year earlier. Quarterly research-and-development expenses more than tripled to $401 million, from $115 million a year earlier, as clinical development and new hiring related to the vaccine raised costs.

Of the roughly 250 million Covid-19 vaccine doses given in the U.S. so far, more than 108 million have been Moderna shots, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Most of the rest were shots from Pfizer Inc., an older and larger competitor, and its partner BioNTech SE.

Both those vaccines—the first two to receive emergency-use authorizations from the Food and Drug Administration last year--make use of genetic material called messenger RNA to prime the body’s immune system to fight SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19. Moderna, which went public in 2018, had been a champion of the technique’s potential, but the technology hadn’t been applied at a large scale before the pandemic.

Even as vaccines have slowed the spread of Covid-19 in the U.S., Moderna and other vaccine makers are grappling with how to use the shots to fight emerging variants of the coronavirus.

On Wednesday, Moderna said a preliminary study showed that additional booster shots—given after the initial two-dose regime—could be helpful in increasing people’s resistance to SARS-CoV-2 variants. Subjects in the study got the booster shots six to eight months after their second dose of Moderna’s vaccine and later showed higher levels of immune-system agents called neutralizing antibodies against two variants of concern.

BBC: Demand for Pfizer's Covid vaccine could bolster its revenues for years, the US drugs giant has said.

Pfizer said it was expecting "durable demand" for the vaccine, in a similar way to flu vaccines.

In the first three months of 2021, the vaccine generated revenues of $3.5bn (£2.5bn) as governments scrambled to try to contain the pandemic.

Revenue from the treatment is expected to hit $26bn this year - accounting for more than one third of Pfizer's sales.

The forecast is based on already-signed contracts for 1.6 billion vaccine doses to be delivered this year.

Pfizer said it expected to sign more deals this year, and was in supply talks with several countries for 2022 and beyond.

"Based on what we've seen, we believe that a durable demand for our Covid-19 vaccine - similar to that of the flu vaccines - is a likely outcome," said chief executive Albert Bourla.

The two-shot vaccine was Pfizer's top-selling product in the first quarter.

Expenses and profit from the vaccine are split 50-50 between Pfizer and its German partner BioNTech.

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Pfizer and fellow US firm Moderna profit from their vaccines, while AstraZeneca and US giant Johnson & Johnson are supplying theirs at cost price while the pandemic continues.

Pfizer recently signed a contract with the UK to supply 60 million additional doses in 2021.

It is testing the use of a third dose of its vaccine as a booster, and expects the US to give the go-ahead for it to be used in children between 12 and 15 years old during the pandemic.

It is also testing the safety and efficacy of the vaccine in children from six months to 11 years old, it said in a prepared statement. Unlike rivals Astra Zeneca and Johnson & Johnson which vowed to forego profits on the vaccine during the pandemic, Pfizer planned to make money on its vaccines.

Tuesday's results show just how much.

Its vaccine business grew from $1.61bn in the first three months of 2020 to $4.89bn for the same period this year. That's more than 300% growth.

And it's likely to reap in millions more in profits from the Covid vaccine.

The Pfizer vaccine will need a booster shot within a year of getting the first two doses. It plans to seek emergency use authorisation from US regulators in July.

And more shots equals more money.

The booster shot offers the first clue to how much drug companies may be able to make from their Covid vaccines in the long term.

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