How Much More Expensive Is 2021's Thanksgiving Dinner Comparatively?

Prices for Thanksgiving ingredients have stayed in a comparable band over the past 30 years. 

Turkey costs are up but mashed potatoes are relatively cheap. The economy is still adjusting to the impact of the pandemic, so prices next year will probably revert to the mean. Have a drink, embrace the carbo coma and relax. JL 

Andy Kiersz reports in Business Insider:

With groceries up 5.4% over the last year, turkey prices are up about 13% from two years ago. It's not all bad news — mashed potatoes, one of the most crucial side dishes for any Thanksgiving table, should still be affordable, with potato prices up only 2% over the last two years. The fresh apples needed for your grandmother's pie are only about 3.5% more expensive than they were before the pandemic.

Thanksgiving is going to be a real turkey this year, and it's because of a very 2021 dinner guest who's showing up to the party: inflation.

The latest consumer price inflation release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed prices overall across the economy increased 6.2% between October 2020 and October 2021. The inflation read was broad-based, with prices for almost all goods and services going up over the last month.

Food prices are one of the big components of the inflationary surge, with groceries up 5.4% over the last year. With Thanksgiving coming up, we decided to take a look at how some of the components of a traditional dinner have fared since October 2019, the last pre-pandemic Thanksgiving season, based on the detailed CPI components data published by BLS:

Turkey prices are up about 13% from two years ago, outstripping the 7.5% increase in overall prices over that period. Ham, fresh dinner rolls, and canned fruits and vegetables also have outpaced general inflation from before the pandemic.

It's not all bad news — mashed potatoes, one of the most crucial side dishes for any Thanksgiving table, should still be affordable, with potato prices up only 2% over the last two years. The fresh apples needed for your grandmother's pie are only about 3.5% more expensive than they were before the pandemic. Since the Federal Reserve shoots for about 2% inflation per year, both of those are cheaper relative to what "normal" price increases would be than two years ago.

Here's a look at how much more the ingredients for Thanksgiving dinner cost now, compared to 2019:

• Turkey: 13.2%
• Ham: 8.7%
• Canned fruits and vegetables: 8.3%
• Fresh biscuits, rolls, and muffins: 8.1%
• Frozen fruits and vegetables: 7.5%
• Frozen and refrigerated bakery products: 6.8%
• Sauces and gravy: 6.7%
• Ice cream: 5.3%
• Rice, pasta, and cornmeal: 3.6%
• Fresh apples: 3.2%
• Potatoes: 2.0%

Food joins a host of other goods and services that have seen prices skyrocket over the last year amid supply chain woes and a surge in demand. The pandemic changed Americans' purchasing habits, and the big influx of stimulus money over the last year and a half has provided families with fatter wallets to fuel demand.

 

Given the big uptick in turkey prices, this might be a good Thanksgiving to try something non-traditional — pasta has gone up less than 4% over the last two years, an Italiansgiving could be in order.