A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

May 9, 2022

The Reason Russia Is Now Running Low On Missiles To Use In Ukraine

Because Russia's infantry and armored forces have been unable - and sometimes unwilling - to successfully attack Ukrainian defenders, the Russian army has been using higher than expected amounts of artillery and rockets. 

But the current run rate is unsustainable given Russian inventory so the result is that they are running low on such ammunition which will add to Russia's problems in gaining momentum in Donbas. JL

Michiel Willems reports in CityAM, image Reuters:

Vladimir Putin could be running out of missiles and armaments because of how much his forces have had to fire during the Ukraine war so far. “Putin potentially has a problem, because the rate of expenditure and the toughness of the fight is totally different to the one that he perceived."Russia struggling to get the momentum, struggling to align its air forces with its land forces, and struggling to get what we call a modern campaign which creates that momentum.

Vladimir Putin could be running out of missiles and armaments because of how much his forces have had to fire during the Ukraine war so far, according to the head of Britain’s Armed Forces.

The Chief of Defence Staff, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, said Russia has now lost 25 per cent of all its forces in Ukraine and is still “struggling” to get any momentum in its new offensive in the Donbas region, he said in an interview with TalkTV’s The News Desk program.

“Putin potentially has a problem, because the rate of expenditure and the toughness of the fight is totally different to the one that he perceived on the 24th of February.

“I think there are several wars going on. There’s a tactical, geographical war going on in Ukraine. There’s a logistics war going on, in terms of how do you maintain that rate of expenditure. But I don’t want to say what our analysis is of where we are in those.” 

“We’re talking severe impact on their armed forces. We’ve had 25 per cent of their forces effectively being taken out – either through people being killed, or through the damage to their battalion tactical groups.”

On the battle for the Donbas, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin said that Russia is “struggling to get the momentum” and that there’s been a “severe impact on their armed forces”.

“It’s possible” Russian forces could encircle Ukraine’s in the decisive battle for the Donbas that is raging now, and “there are real risks that Russia could gain some ground. But you’re also seeing on a daily basis, Russia struggling to get the momentum, struggling to align its air forces with its land forces, and struggling to get what we call a modern campaign which creates that momentum. 

“I think it’s really hard to make those improvements in the short space of time between their defeat around the cities,” he said.

Admiral Sir Tony Radakin added Putin is under “incredible pressure” to pull off a victory in the Donbas region to declare to the Russian people and he has “a hard slog” ahead to do it:

“You’re seeing the tactical fight, where Putin is trying to rush to a tactical victory, and then he’ll push that with his own people”.

Admiral Sir Tony Radakin

“I think what we’re now seeing is incredible pressure – political pressure and military pressure – for a victory. And I think we’ve got to wait and see whether or not doing that in such a rushed manner against a Ukrainian armed forces that are fighting for their country, and a Ukrainian armed forces that we’re proud to be saying that we’re supporting.”

“And that should give all of us encouragement about how this is going to be a tough fight. And it’s going to carry on being a tough fight. This is going to be a hard slog.

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