What the Massacre of Russian Forces Trying To Cross Donets River Reveals

So just when the New York Times and other "experts" are gravely intoning about increasingly stout Russian defense, reports emerge a day ago about Ukraine, with some drones, a couple of planes and some artillery utterly shredding two entire battalion tactical groups at a river crossing.

The losses are bad enough, but this suggests that operational discipline and effectiveness are eroding rather than getting better, with all that implies for Russia's chances. JL   

Daily Kos reports:

52 vehicles, as many as 1500 troops, blown to bits with no protection, support, warning or any chance of returning fire because there is nobody to shoot at. And the survivors trapped on the wrong side of the river being hunted through the forest like deer. This was between 2 and 3 BTG’s rendered inoperable, maybe even deleted entirely, 2,000 troops involved, shredded by...an engineer, some spotters, fire gunnery teams way the hell over somewhere and a couple of pilots. Something very wrong is happening to the invader’s forces, and it is getting much worse quicklyThe horrific failure of Russian forces trying to cross the Donets near Lysychansk is worth reading.

 

But it raises a whole bunch of questions that are not being canvassed anywhere that I have seen. They go like this:

 

 

1. Where was the reconnaissance ahead of the action?
   How did they not know that Ukrainian weapons were within range of their crossing? Is Ukrainian camouflage now so good they can’t be found?
   Has Russia run out of drones?
2. Where was their artillery?
   Both ahead of the landing to prepare the ground and to counter fire when the Ukrainians opened up?
   Have their batteries been pushed back so far they can’t provide useful service?
   Have they run out of ammunition?
   Have they already been taken out by the 155’s and other munitions?
3. Where was the airforce to give cover for such a major event?
   Even as close as this was to the Donbas line of contact, is the RUAF incapable of providing support?
   Or are they too scared of losing more jets and choppers that they can’t afford the risk?
4. Where was their anti-aircraft batteries when the Ukrainian jets turned up to “chip in”?
   Jesus, its starting to sound like the jolly old Brits calling in in to say could they join the show and chip in a bit of bombing with tea and muffins for afters?” Chip in FFS?
   How in hell are they flying so close to “Russian held territory” (which should now be enclosed in quotes) without so much as a popgun going off?
   Where are the S300/400 batteries?
   Have they all been blown up?
   Have they run out of rockets?
5. Where the hell is the mind of whoever ordered that fucking mess?
   Are they all now so punch drunk or just drunk with vodka and despair that they are sending totally unprotected troops on suicide missions?

Over 50 vehicles, possibly as many as 1500 troops, blown to bits with no protection, support, warning or any chance of returning fire because there is nobody to shoot at. Clusterfuck doesn’t begin to describe it. And the survivors trapped on the wrong side of the river being hunted through the forest like deer.

At a rough guess this was between 2 and 3 BTG’s rendered inoperable, maybe even deleted entirely, with up to 2,000 troops involved, shredded by how many Ukrainians? An engineer, some spotters and fire gunnery teams way the hell over there somewhere and a couple of pilots. The force ratio is nuts.

Something very wrong is happening to the invader’s forces, and it is going to get much worse and quite quickly.

Latest appears to be that they have solved the issue of where Gerasimov was on May 9,

But it still doesn’t tell us why he was promoted to full command what, a week ago, and why he is now gone? Did Ukraine, in fact, nail him in Izyum, or wound him too badly a) to appear on the dais and b) to continue in the role. Talk about musical chairs, to the Dead March from “Saul”

One more thing. Apparently that move to the border north of Kharkiv has consequences.

The pace is picking up, the break is near, I think it all goes to hell for Russia by the end of the month. 19 days.

Update: Just in from Newsweek, security camera video of the reputed attack on oil and fuel installations in Belgorod. Have a look at the 0:03 sec mark. That looks to me an awful lot like a pair of rockets being fired from a hovering chopper, not artillery shells arriving trailing sparks through the clouds.