Russia, Again, Fails To Capture Severodonetsk, Which Doesn't Matter Anyway
The western media continue to focus on the battle for Severodonetsk as if its chronically imminent fall (the 'Waiting for Godot' of Russian military success) were somehow significant. But as the attached map reveals that it is an isolated outpost on the edge of Ukrainian territory.
The Ukrainian army decision to fight there seems to have been driven in part by politics as it has helped produce more NATO aid, but in part it is a trap for the Russian army which has wasted copious amounts of blood and treasure on a now destroyed city of limited importance. Even liberal arts majors working in journalism should be able to understand the context. JL
Daily Kos reports:
It has taken Russia three weeks and counting to
take a city on an isolated salient (Severodonetsk), at the very end of Ukrainian-held
territory. Lysychansk is much easier to defend, reinforce, and resupply
(no blown bridges). (But) even Lysychansk doesn’t matter strategically! Russia can
crow about conquering Luhansk, but the
Donbas also includes Donetsk Oblast, and Ukraine holds thousands of
square miles of it. And Russia can’t conquer it without going
through heavily fortified Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. Russia will pay
with blood for every meter it advances.
I
circled Sloviansk and Kramatorsk in the map above as a reminder, that
even if Russia takes Severodonetsk (probable) and Lysychansk (less
probable), any such advance will crash at the gates of [the] heavily
fortified cities [of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk], with clear supply lines
and artillery support to their west. Honestly, I’ve rarely questioned
Ukrainian strategy, but their defense of Severodonetsk, on the wrong
side of the Donets River, is truly perplexing.
Not
only is Lysychansk much easier to defend behind the natural barrier of
the river, but it is closer to Ukrainian artillery support.
It
turns out that Ukraine sent M777 howitzers right up to Lysychansk, and
while they’ve wreaked havoc on Ukraine’s rear areas, we have video of at
least three of them destroyed this past week (here'stwo
of them). None of them have been geolocated, so maybe they were
positioned elsewhere in the Donbas, but the most prevalent long-distance
fires in Russian territory fan out from the Lysychansk area:
Red
fires are artillery strikes in Russian territory, blue in Ukrainian
territory (though the blue south of Lysychansk is now Russian-held)
Anyway,
I rehash that old post because Ukraine is now down to one slice of
Severodonetsk and its final retreat is imminent. Meanwhile, Russian
forces finally punched through Ukrainian defenses north of Popasna and
are approaching Lysychansk from the south.
Unlike
Severodonets, Lysychansk is absolutely defensible. Russia is blocked
from its eastern approach by the Donets river, and currently safe from
its western approach because of the same river. (Russian attempts to
cross it have met with unmitigated large-scale disaster thus far.) Thus,
Russia’s only approach at the moment is from the south. And look at
what that looks like on a relief map:
Dem Mon on twitterhas
marked the areas of Russian advance and Ukrainian defenses. I added
emphasis to the series of heights that overlook the approach into town.
Let’s take a closer look at that approach:
There
are two entrances into Lysychansk from that southern approach. The one
on the east is a narrow corridor between bluff and river. Not only is it
a natural ambush point, but might even be blockadable. It will
certainly be mined to high heaven, requiring Russia to de-mine under
fire. Here is aGoogle Maps street viewfrom
the foot of the hill with a nice, clear view of that road heading up
north. Note the ample human infrastructure along the highway, allowing
for harassment of Russian forces all the way into town.
The wider western approach runs between two sets of bluffs, natural ambush points, and there is plenty of infrastructure.
Yes,
Russia will level that. But that will take time, and Russia will pay
with blood for every meter it advances. With their western flanks
unsecured, Ukrainian counter-battery fire can continuing harassing
Russian artillery, and doubly so as HIMARS rocket artillery arrives
imminently.
And
we haven’t even entered Lyschansk proper, a city with a pre-war
population of 100,000. It has taken Russia three weeks and counting to
take a city on an isolated salient, at the very end of Ukrainian-held
territory. Lysychansk is much easier to defend, reinforce, and resupply
(no blown bridges).
And
you know what? Even Lysychansk doesn’t matter strategically! Russia can
crow all it wants about conquering all of Luhansk Oblast, but the
Donbas also includes Donetsk Oblast, and Ukraine holds thousands of
square miles of it. And Russia can’t conquer it without going
through Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.
Staring at map closeups skews perspective, so let’s put those two cities in their broader context:
Small
circle on the right is the Severodonetsk/Lysychansk pocket. The small
circle to the left is Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, and the big circle is
pretty much the remaining Ukrainian-held territory in the Donbas. At
current pace, featuring frightening losses, that’ll only take Russia
… still not doing the math. A long f’n time. And that’s assuming they
somehow figure out how to fix their logistical issues. Heck, logistics
might even hamper Russia’s southern approach toward Lysychansk. I
wouldn't be surprised if Russia’s “flatten it, then march into the
rubble” strategy doesn’t give them Lysychansk in a month or two, but I
also wouldn’t be surprised if Ukraine holds on. All because of
logistics.
--—
Ukraine
has been targeting Russian supply and ammunition depots over the past
week to spectacular effect. Much of that is credited to longer-range
artillery like M777 howitzers from Australia, Canada, and the United
States, and Caesar self-propelled guns from France. Yet several of these
strikes are extra long range, using Soviet-eraTochka-U rockets (likehere,here, andhere).
We knew Ukraine had them, but the fact that they’restillfiring
them this deep into the war is surprising. Either they have ungodly
patience in using them, or they’ve been getting resupplied by former
Soviet states (Czechoslovakia, Slovakia, Poland, and East Germany all
had them but were retired, and Bulgaria had a handful remaining in
service).
If
they had these rockets all along, why not hit these ammo dumps sooner?
One possibility is partisan activity. Reports are spreading of partisan
acts in occupied territories, with Russian soldiers and Ukrainian
collaborators being assassinated by ambush or improvised explosives.
Many also suspect these partisans are uncovering the location of these
ammo dumps and passing coordinates to the Ukrainian army. Some of the
results have been spectacular.
As a Partner and Co-Founder of Predictiv and PredictivAsia, Jon specializes in management performance and organizational effectiveness for both domestic and international clients. He is an editor and author whose works include Invisible Advantage: How Intangilbles are Driving Business Performance. Learn more...
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