A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Jun 17, 2022

The Reason Russia Has Already "Strategically Lost" In Ukraine

The assessment from senior NATO military officials is that although Russia  may make some tactical gains, primarily around the militarily unimportant city of Severodonetsk, it has failed to achieve any of its strategic goals - and is unlikely to do so because of poor planning, leadership, troop morale, equipment and logistical snafus. 

And because it underestimated both Ukraine's ability and resilience.  There is no evidence to suggest this evaluation will change. JL

The Guardian reports:

The head of the UK’s armed forces said Russia has already “strategically lost” the war in Ukraine and is now a “diminished power”. Vladimir Putin has lost 25% of Russia’s land power for only “tiny” gains while strengthening Nato, (which) is stronger, with Finland and Sweden looking to join.” While Putin may achieve “tactical successes” in the weeks to come, it is running out of troops and hi-tech missiles. Recent successes have come at “significant resource cost” by concentrating forces on a single campaign. “Measured against Russia’s original plan, none of the strategic objectives have been achieved."

The head of the UK’s armed forces has said Russia has already “strategically lost” the war in Ukraine and is now a “more diminished power”.

Admiral Sir Tony Radakin said Russia was suffering heavy losses, running out of troops and advanced missiles and would never be able to take over all of Ukraine.

“This is a dreadful mistake by Russia. Russia will never take control of Ukraine,” Tony Radakin told PA Media in an interview published on Friday.

The country’s highest-ranking military officer said the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, had lost 25% of Russia’s land power for only “tiny” gains and it would emerge a “more diminished power” while strengthening Nato.

“Russia has strategically lost already. Nato is stronger, Finland and Sweden are looking to join,” he said.


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Radakin said that while Putin may achieve “tactical successes” in the weeks to come, it had come at the expense of a quarter of his country’s army power for “tiny” gains and was running out of troops and hi-tech missiles.

“The Russian machine is grinding away, and it’s gaining a couple of – two, three, five – kilometres every day,” the admiral said.

“And Russia has vulnerabilities because it’s running out of people, it’s running out of hi-tech missiles.

“President Putin has used about 25% of his army’s power to gain a tiny amount of territory and 50,000 people either dead or injured. Russia is failing.”

Radakin’s claims echo British intelligence reports, the latest of which said some Russian battalion tactical groups (BTGs) – typically established at about 600 to 800 personnel – have only been able to muster as few as 30 soldiers.

Although Russia is achieving tactical success in the Donbas, these recent successes have come at “significant resource cost” and by concentrating force and fires on a single part of the overall campaign.

“Measured against Russia’s original plan, none of the strategic objectives have been achieved. In order for Russia to achieve any form of success will require continued huge investment of manpower and equipment, and is likely to take considerable further time,” a report read.

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