A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Jul 6, 2022

How Many Tanks Does Russia Have Remaining?

Russia's emphasis on the use of artillery in Ukraine and its taking old tanks out of inventory combined with the cautiousness of its advance suggests that it doesn't have many left - to say nothing of the trained crews needed to man them. And that its tactical shift to artillery is the result. JL 

Andrew Winter reports in Quora:

Russia started the war with only 1700 tanks. Ukraine claims to have destroyed or captured 1400. Even if Ukraine has “fluffed” the numbers by a factor of two Russian Tank losses are the worst they have ever suffered in so short a time. And the tank losses are proportional to all the other crap they’ve lost as well. But the crews simply take time to replace and Russia has run out of time. I am inclined to think this number represents a “middle of the road” estimate in what would otherwise be a “bracket”. (And) Russia is tapping it’s reserves of ancient T-62s already.

Now before we go apoplectic let’s remember that it isn’t the tanks alone we need to account for. Sure lots and lots of tanks, maybe JUNK tanks but tanks. But you need crews, trained and seasoned crews to turn tanks into combat units such as the Russian BTG, which on paper should be a real rolling death machine so long as it keeps moving. To turn tanks into BTGs? That kind of training takes weeks, seasoning can take two years “in unit” to achieve depending entirely on how much money Russia can spend on training.

Russia is tapping it’s reserves of ancient T-62s already.

In terms of serviceable tanks with trained and seasoned crews, Russia was quite proud in August of the 170 Battalion Tactical Groups that had been brought on line for the entire Russian Army. These BTGs are where all the tanks in the Russian Army exist. There are only 10 tanks in each BTG. Russia started the war with only 1700 tanks in their BTGs, and Invaded with only 100 BTGs.

Ukraine has whacked, on their claims, nearly 1400 tanks.
https://www.mil.gov.ua/en/news/2022/06/05/the-total-combat-losses-of-the-enemy-from-24-02-to-05-06/

I am inclined to think this number represents a “middle of the road” estimate in what would otherwise be a “bracket”. Ukraine is begging the world for help. The World, in the information age, is very sensitive to liars. It takes minutes now to reveal the necessary inconsistencies to see a lie. twenty years ago it could take months or even years. Credibility for Ukraine is money in the bank. At least if Ukraine has half a brain they’d see it that way.

However, even if Ukraine has “fluffed” the numbers by a factor of two Russian Tank losses are the worst they have ever suffered in so short a time. And the tank losses are proportional to all the other crap they’ve lost as well. But the crews simply take time to replace and Russia has run out of time.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

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Anonymous said...

Although under the circumstances to give creditability to numbers it is extremely hard to receive verification of true numbers of weapons destroyed. Boundaries of existing battle lines are constantly fluid. Based on different sights I have visited the number of 1400 tanks destroyed sounds reasonable. It is my fondest hope that the Russian military is reduced to the point it will take them 6 decades to recover.

Anonymous said...

In addition to destroying Russian armor I think it’s important that Ukraine put out all sorts of vicious booby traps including poisons and simple traps that can cause a horrible wound.

I’d like to see the Ukrainians supply the Russians with contaminated food, vodka and cigarettes. Something that will give them dysentery, slow chemical poisoning and cancer.

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