Russian Wagner Mercenaries Posted Their Location On Social Media. Ukraine Responded With HIMARS

If you think revealing personal location information is a threat when you go out with friends, imagine the risk in a war zone. JL 

Daily Kos reports:

Not only did the pictures show a large number of Wagner mercenaries at the location, clearly a headquarters of some sort, but the visit by their top executive clarified that it was a particularly high-value location. Oligarchs don’t visit scrubs in the trenches. Wagner itself published on VK (the Russian Facebook) that Prigozhin was meeting with top commanders (and) they literally posted a picture with the address of the building! With the address in hand, and a location determined, HIMARS got to work. Russian sources published photos of Wagner mercenaries carrying out dead and wounded from the building.

You expect rank incompetence from basic Russian troops, but Wagner mercenaries have proven some of the most valuable forces on the Russian side. They were instrumental in the conquest of along every single major Russian victory in the last several months—Popasna, Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, and their (modest) advances around Bakhmut. 

A few days ago, this was posted: Not sure when these photos were taken (posted two days ago) but they reportedly show Wagner fighters in Popasna. The first photo looks like Yevgeny Prigozhin (on left).

Prigozhin is an oligarch, close confidant of Vladimir Putin (originally his chef!), and the head of Wagner Group. This was originally posted on the small Telegram of a Wagner commander named Sreda, then reposted on Wagner’s Grey Zone Mercenary Community Telegram channel, with over a quarter million subscribers. 

If there’s one thing we’ve learned this war, is that there are savants in the Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) community who can geolocate anything. Here’s some dirt and a rusty bucket? Someone will find it! Except that in this case, that wasn’t even necessary.  They literally posted a picture with the address of the building!

Not only did the pictures show a large number of Wagner mercenaries at the location, clearly a headquarters of some sort, but the visit by their top executive clarified that it was a particularly high-value location. Oligarchs don’t visit scrubs in the trenches. Wagner itself published on VK (the Russian Facebook) that Progozhin was meeting with top commanders: 

The staff also remained in the vk group of the press service of Prigozhin's Concord company. In a publication on behalf of Yevgeny Prigozhin, it is reported that he was “walking through the forest” and met the Wagner PMC and the military commissar Sreda.

With the address in hand, and a location determined, HIMARS got to work. 

"Wagner" Russian mercenary base after HIMARS strike — Popasna, Luhansk region pic.twitter.com/caHYDQbuMO

— ТРУХА⚡️English (@TpyxaNews) August 14, 2022

Russian sources published photos of Wagner mercenaries carrying out dead and wounded from the building.

While Russia officially shrugged off losses, Wagner itself was more direct. 

Not sure how they think they can “take action” when it comes to HIMARS, but maybe they can take action against their idiot comrades who gifted Ukraine their location. 

After the publication of the news about the attack on the headquarters of Wagner PMCs, military commander Sreda deleted the post with photos of their base from his channel. According to the Ukrainian media, it was thanks to these photos that the Armed Forces of Ukraine were able to determine the location and strike.

Yeah, too late. Thank god. 

As for Prigozhin, one Russian Telegram account with nearly half a million followers says that people who work for Prigozhin haven’t seen him since the attack, and that “Everyone is in a mild panic.” But the same channel also says Wagner fighters told them that Prigozhin was alive. Given that the attack came at least five days after the images floated online, odds are good the asshole is still alive. Would be odd for Prigozhin to stay in the field for several days so close to the front. Still, given the rampant speculation on the Russian side, a proof of life picture or video will need to come out to put speculation and rumor-mongering to rest. 

As delicious as it would be to kill Prigozhin, someone who has wrought unbelievable amount of death and destruction in Ukraine, Syria, Central African Republic, Libya, Mali, and elsewhere, the real value in this strike is the elimination of their most effective and experienced commanders. It is a legit blow to Russia’s operations in the Bakhmut direction. Really, there’s just basic human rights value to any dead Wagner mercenaries.