A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Aug 7, 2022

The Reason Ukraine Is Publicly Emphasizing Its Kherson Offensive

Because they believe Kherson is where they are mostly likely to be able to deliver a resounding defeat to the Russians. JL 

Phillips O'Brien reports, image Bulent Kilic, AFP:

The Ukrainians have been pushing the narrative of a counteroffensive in Kherson for weeks--and they are not stopping.They want lots of Russian troops in Kherson, particularly on the west bank of the Dnipro, because they can reduce the logistics flow to such troops by cutting the bridges across the river. And overall (both sides of river) its the easiest area to damage rail lines (and) because its the safest place for the Ukrainians to attack, safest place to deploy Ukr ranged weapons, easiest for Ukr to supply. In other words, best place to attrit Russian forces while protecting Ukr. They want to fight in Kherson and want Russian troops there because they are very vulnerable.For whatever reason the Ukrainians have been pushing the narrative of a counteroffensive in Kherson for weeks--and they are not stopping.

 

And if this video is indeed near Kherson and is recent, it shows the almost total failure of Russian airpower (one of the reasons the Ukrainians are more likely to counterattack in Kherson oblast. This is a long column, out in the open on a very sunny day.

 

Been trying to think of the different reasons that the Ukrainians have been trying to persuade the Russians to send mass reinforcements to Kherson (because clearly they have). I think there are 3.

 

1) They actually plan an attack somewhere else (central area/even Donbas and this is a trick to make the Russians weaken the line where they really plan to move.

 

2) They want lots of Russian troops in Kherson, particularly on the west bank of the Dnipro, because they can easily reduce the logistics flow to such troops by cutting the bridges across the river. And overall (both sides of river) its the easiest area to damage rail lines.

 

3)They want lots of Russian troops in Kherson because its the safest place for the Ukrainians to attack, safest place to deploy Ukr ranged weapons, easiest for Ukr to supply. In other words, best place to attrit Russian forces while protecting Ukr

 

Personally 1 on its own strikes me as unlikely, not least because secret build ups for attack are not easy. Think a combination of 2 and 3 are far more likely. They want to fight in Kherson and want Russian troops there because they are very vulnerable. ht in Kherson and want Russian troops there because they are very vulnerable.Ukr has had a pretty consistent strategy for months of trying to wear down Russian strength by constant attrition, so much so that the Russians wont be able to hold the large area that have to defend.
Ukr has had a pretty consistent strategy for months of trying to wear down Russian strength by constant attrition, so much so that the Russians wont be able to hold the large area that have to defend. Just a guess.

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