Ashley Belanger reports in ars technica:
Among about two dozen "chokepoint technologies" that Russia "most desperately" needs to stay in the fight are microchips manufactured by eight US tech companies. Those companies include Marvell, Intel, Holt, ISSI, Microchip, Micron, Broadcom, and Texas Instruments. Sanctions can only go so far to limit distribution from these companies, though, as Russia will likely look to third parties or unregulated markets to fill the gap. Other countries with products on Russia's list marked as critical included Germany, Japan, Taiwan, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, China, and the Netherlands.Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal this week told Politico that he expects that diminished access to technology will be the driving force staving off Russia's ongoing attacks. Since invading Ukraine, Russia has spent months burning through nearly half of the critical military technology in its arsenal, and now Politico has shared a leaked "shopping list" of tech that Russia is most urgently seeking to replenish its stockpile.
"According to our information, Russians have already spent almost half... of their weaponry arsenal," Shmyhal told Politico.
Among about two dozen "chokepoint technologies" that Russia "most desperately" needs to stay in the fight are microchips manufactured by eight US tech companies that America hopes to block Russia from accessing through sanctions.
Those companies include Marvell, Intel, Holt, ISSI, Microchip, Micron, Broadcom, and Texas Instruments. Sanctions can only go so far to limit distribution from these companies, though, as Russia will likely look to third parties or unregulated markets to fill the gap. Ars reached out to all US tech companies for comment, but only a few immediately responded.
"We take our responsibility as a good corporate citizen seriously," Brian Thorsen, a Microchip spokesperson, told Ars. "In compliance with export laws, and because actions by Russia against the Ukraine are in opposition to our Guiding Values, Microchip ceased shipments to customers in Russia, Belarus, and sanctioned regions in the Ukraine."
"For over a decade all of Intel's sales in Russia have been through distributors who are required to comply with US export controls," Penny Bruce, Intel's corporate communications director, told Ars. "Intel has suspended all shipments to customers in both Russia and Belarus and will continue to comply with all applicable export regulations and sanctions in the countries in which it operates. This includes compliance with the sanctions and export controls against Russia and Belarus issued by the US and allied nations."
In March, Marvell posted a similar statement directed to business partners: "Marvell is stopping all transactions of its products directly and indirectly to customers based in Russia, Belarus, Donetsk People's Republic (DNR), and Luhansk People's Republic (LNR) regions of Ukraine."
Politico reported that some of the tech parts that Russia seeks could still potentially be accessed easily and smuggled into Russia via unregulated online markets, but other products have long been out of stock globally.
Without more microchips—as well as other items on the Kremlin's shopping list like "semiconductors, transformers, connectors, casings, transistors, insulators, and other components"—Russia may lose its most powerful missile technology and perhaps even be forced to withdraw from the conflict.
Shmyhal told Politico the "outcome of the war" could "hinge" on whether Russia can quickly stockpile microchips, which is why Ukraine has issued international warnings to alert other countries to help cut off Russia's supply. For now, the strategy appears to be working in Ukraine's favor.
"Because of sanctions imposed on Russia, the deliveries of this high-tech microchip equipment... have stopped and they have no way of replenishing these stocks," Shmyhal told Politico.
Restricting items on Russia’s shopping list
The source of Politico's leaked shopping list couldn't be independently verified. Instead, Politico spoke to "two experts in military supply chains" who "confirmed it was in line with other research findings about Russia's military equipment and needs."
The shopping list is divided into three categories, ranked from low to critical importance. Items considered most critical included microchips costing anywhere from $7 to more than $1,000 per unit, most sourced from US companies.
Not every US company has taken a public stance to support Ukraine, but some US companies like Intel have published statements condemning Russia's invasion of Ukraine. And Texas Instruments has donated funds to Ukrainian relief efforts.
Intel described in an email how it attempts to block business partners from distributing products restricted under sanctions: "While we do not always know nor can we control what products our customers create or the applications end-users may develop, Intel does not support or tolerate our products being used to violate human rights," Bruce told Ars. "Where we become aware of a concern that Intel products are being used by a business partner in connection with abuses of human rights, we will restrict or cease business with the third party until and unless we have high confidence that Intel's products are not being used to violate human rights."
Other countries with products on Russia's shopping list that were marked as critical included Germany, Japan, Taiwan, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, China, and the Netherlands. A major concern for Ukraine allies is that non-allies like China will help Russia circumvent sanctions to access tech and prolong the war effort. Without China, Russia would find it much harder to "acquire the most sensitive tech" listed, Politico reported.
In the meantime, Russia has turned to old-fashioned weaponry. Shmyhal told Politico that Russia only has "four dozen" high-tech hypersonic missiles left and has been relying on 1960s-era military tech until the country's high-tech military supplies can be built back up.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian military forces have access to technology from US and European allies, which the international think tank the European Council on Foreign Relations has reported better positions Ukraine to "pinpoint the weaknesses of the Russian military." Last month, the BBC reported on how Ukraine's enhanced tech capabilities have already proven to be an advantage in counterattacks that now, Shmyhal told Politico, represent an "inflection point" in the war.
Prolonged impact of Russian sanctions
While sanctions against Russia have hampered its access to key military tech, Bloomberg reports that "Russia may face a longer and deeper recession as the impact of US and European sanctions spreads."
According to a Russian internal government report from a meeting of top Russian officials that Bloomberg reviewed, sanctions that cut off "about a quarter" of Russian imports and exports is affecting "practically all forms of transport." An expert told Bloomberg that key sectors that typically generate billions for the country annually—including oil and gas, chemicals, and metals—will no longer drive Russia's economy by 2050.
Russia's attempts to advance its own tech and become self-reliant could be further frustrated by these economic setbacks. It seems that while Russia invests billions into building its own tech sector, "200,000 IT specialists may leave the country by 2025" due to the projected long-term economic setbacks. Because of this, Bloomberg reports that Russia's "telecommunications sector may fall five years behind world leaders in 2022
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