A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Oct 11, 2022

Meanwhile, Back On the Battlefield, Ukraine Has Forced Russia To Choose Between Bad - and Worse

Putin's barbaric missile attacks on civilians did nothing to change the reality that both his armies in the field - in the north, retreating from Kharkiv and in the south retreating to Kherson - are any better off. 

And as outraged as Ukrainians are, they are not letting themselves be distracted from the strategic goal of destroying those two Russian armies while recapturing their occupied territory. JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in Twitter:

Though most of the talk is about the Bridge (and Russian missile attacks), for the last few days, the Ukrainians have continued to press towards Svatove. If/when they force the Russian out of Svatove, they are forcing a Russian pull back to start an even more humiliating campaign to envelope Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. (But) the Russians have a large, and even more vulnerable Army around Kherson. The attack (on the bridge) showed just how vulnerable that force is. Ukraine is pressing towards two strategic targets (Svatove and Kherson) in a way that they can continue to degrade Russian forces.The attack on the Crimean Bridge and what it might say about Ukrainian intentions. Basically Ukraine is pressing in both East and South simultaneously, to see if they can create a new Russian collapse.

 

There has been talk for a while about whether the Ukrainians are prioritizing the East (Kharkiv) or West (Kherson) and what their ultimate intentions are. This week seems to show that they are pressing both (in different ways) and are looking for some major result by year's end.

 

Though most of the talk was about the Bridge, its important to note that for the last few days, the Ukrainians have continued to press ahead towards Svatove.They seem to be pressing both on both the north side and south side of the town, in their normal way of trying to find openings without incurring too many casualties (a bit like they did when they enveloped Lyman).

 

If/when they force the Russian out of Svatove, they are basically forcing a Russian pull back to a point that they could start an even more humiliating campaign for the Russians, to try and envelope Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.You would think the Russians would commit what they can to protect Svatove, and Ive seen reports that the Russians are trying hard to hold the city and even thinking about committing what few reserves they have to a counterattack.T

 

The problem the Russians face is that they have a large, and even more vulnerable Army in the south--around Kherson oblast. The attack (on the bridge) showed just how vulnerable that force really is. Turns out that this is already almost impossible to imagine as Russia doesnt have a working rail access from the East to Kherson. In other words, without the Kerch Bridge, thats it for heavy supplies for Russian forces in the Kherson region--you can see just how crucial it is. So this attack really could have been devastating.

 

The Russians quickly tried to reassure their people that the rail bridge remained open--but we will have to see. Its a question of the weight of freight that the can send down the line. Its a two track line, and one track might take a while to get back into action.So the amount of freight heading down that line in the coming days will be important to see. Because not only does it have to supply Russian forces in Kherson, they need to supply Crimea as well. For Russian forces in Kherson, this must be very worrying. They already suffered through a major withdrawal this week. They have been forced/pulled back from a large area to the North on the west bank of the Dnipro.

 

What the Ukrainians probably dont want, is a full withdrawal. Having a large Russian force on the west bank of the Dnipro provides them with a vulnerable Russian target for their superior ranged weaponry. Indeed they probably want the opposite. The Russians are running short of good troops and equipment, so good for Ukraine if they deploy as much of that as they can in the most exposed position possible--Kherson. Especially as at any moment the Ukrainians might be able to cut supplies there.

 

So Ukraine is shaping the war relentlessly in their favor. They are pressing towards two strategic targets (Svatove and Kherson) that the Russians want to hold, in such a way that they can continue to degrade Russian forces.It creates such a problem, that Putin might rush angry, ill prepared conscripts into action too soon. The backdrop to all of this remains the worst mass conscription process of the 20th-21st century.So here we are, Ukraine is basically presenting the Russians with a host of bad choices--and they will have to take one.
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