Russia Orders Stop To Offensive Operations in Donbas Due To Widespread Desertions, Refusal To Follow Orders

Russia's  no training, no weapons, no food approach to war seems to be working about as well as expected. JL 

Daily Kos reports:

In some areas of hostilities, in particular in the Donetsk oblast, enemy units began to receive orders from the top commanders to temporarily stop offensive operations. The main reason is the extremely low morale and psychological condition of the recruits, numerous facts of desertion from among the mobilized and non-fulfilment of combat orders.

Last night’s situational update from Ukraine General Staff had a rare and curious omission: there was no mention of any Russian/Wagner mercenary attack toward the Donbas town of Bakhmut. As much fun as we’ve had mocking Russia’s nonsensical attacks on a strategically irrelevant town, we may finally be seeing the culmination of Russia’s last offensive operation anywhere in the entire country of Ukraine. 

Bakhmut is in Donetsk oblast, and Ukraine’s General Staff says orders have come down to stop attacking.

In some areas of hostilities, in particular in the Donetsk oblast, enemy units began to receive orders from the top commanders to temporarily stop offensive operations. The main reason is the extremely low morale and psychological condition of the recruits, numerous facts of desertion from among the mobilized and non-fulfilment of combat orders.

There is also news that Ukraine has recaptured several positions near Bakhmut, suggesting either that Russia is fully spent, or might actually be retreating.

Ivanhrad isn’t on the map, it’s the red circle area. It’s literally a one-street village. Yet Russian stans had celebrated its capture as some kind of epic victory. It’s sad and pathetic. And even if Russian forces somehow made it into Bakhmut, there’s a river running through town that they couldn’t possibly ever cross. It’s all so futile, and has been for months!

Want more evidence of Russia’s culmination? They are busy building defensive lines well behind the front lines, around 35 kilometers to the east of Bakhmut.

This new defensive line is even behind Popasna, which Russia occupied back in early May. 

Red line are the new defensive lines currently under construction

You might be wondering, why is Russia building such elaborate defenses so far behind the current front lines. It’s not a trick question, the answer is obvious: Because Russia doesn’t have faith it'll hold those existing lines. There’s literally no other explanation. 

Warner might still rustle up some more prison cannon fodder to mindlessly throw at Bakhmut. They are so desperate for a victory, any victory, that they might see it worth their while. But no one builds defensive lines deep in their backfield if they really expect to advance.

This is exciting, as this puts Ukraine on the P07 road with a straight shot down to Svatove. (Not sure why DefMon calls it P66, as that’s further south.) Perhaps even better, those forces can take that road to the northeast, cutting off Svatove’s northern supply lines. Remember, Ukraine doesn’t actually want to take the city head on. It’s much better to envelope it from multiple sides. That position on the P07 highway opens up several approaches, adding to the pressure on Svatove. 

Ukraine working to surround Svatove

That’s the dream, Ukraine still has got a ways to go. Now notice that north-south ridge line running through Svatove’s eastern edge. Unfortunately for Russia, it features a gentle west-facing slope, making it harder to defend. Once Ukraine takes it, all those towns to the east of that ridge line will be impossible to defend.

The unseasonably wet conditions might end up Russia’s best friend for the next month or so as we see the return of Ukraine’s famous mud. Yet the weather might also be Russia’s biggest nightmare, as nighttime temperatures are now hitting freezing. Russa’s ill-equipped cannon fodder will have even more of a reason to quit.If they’re already sick and barefoot, but with tents and wood stoves at least, imagine what it’s going to be like in Ukrainian trenches with no jackets, no heat, no tent, and a hell of a lot colder.