A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Oct 28, 2022

Russian Units Defending Kherson Reported To Be "Severely" Undermanned

Russia appears to have left a few undermanned and underequipped units on the west bank of the Dnipro in Kherson as human 'speed bumps' so as not to be accused of having given up entirely. JL 

Jack Dutton reports in Newsweek:

The Russian military is severely undermanned as they prepare to stop Ukraine from taking the occupied southern Kherson region in a counteroffensive. "Russia has augmented some of its units west of the Dnipro River with mobilised reservists. However, this is from an extremely low level of manning." Russian officers described companies in the Kherson sector as consisting of between six and eight men each. Companies should deploy with around 100 personnel. "Even if Russia succeeds in consolidating defensive lines, its operational design will remain vulnerable. To regain the initiative, it will need to regenerate higher quality, mobile forces."

The Russian military is severely undermanned as they prepare to stop Ukraine from taking the occupied southern Kherson region in a counteroffensive, according to the British Ministry of Defense.

The strategically important Kherson region was taken by Russia from Ukraine in the early days of the war.

In its daily intelligence update on Friday, the ministry said: "Russia has likely augmented some of its units west of the Dnipro River with mobilised reservists. However, this is from an extremely low level of manning." "In September 2022, Russian officers described companies in the Kherson sector as consisting of between six and eight men each. Companies should deploy with around 100 personnel," the ministry added.The ministry said that over the last six weeks there has been "a clear move" from Russian ground forces to transition to a long-term, defensive posture on most front-line areas of the conflict.

"This is likely due to a more realistic assessment that the severely undermanned, poorly trained force in Ukraine is currently only capable of defensive operations," it added.

"Even if Russia succeeds in consolidating long-term defensive lines in Ukraine, its operational design will remain vulnerable. To regain the initiative, it will need to regenerate higher quality, mobile forces which are capable of dynamically countering Ukrainian breakthroughs and conducting their own large-scale offensive operations."

Newsweek reached out to the Russian ministry of defense for comment.

Russia has encouraged civilians in Kherson Oblast to evacuate as Ukrainian forces mount their counterattack in the region. Kremlin-loyal occupation authorities are reportedly no longer present in the city of Kherson itself, but Russia appears to be setting the stage for a prolonged urban battle.

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, OCTOBER 27
This map of Ukraine by the Institute of the Study of War think tank from October 27 shows the regions Russia has taken and the progress of Kyiv's counteroffensive.INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF WAR AND AEI'S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT

Ukrainian forces are also conducting a counteroffensive in the northeastern region of Kharkiv, home to Ukraine's second-largest city of the same name. On Wednesday, Ukraine's defense minister said that the Kherson counteroffensive is proving more difficult than in the northeast because of the wet weather and the terrain.

"First of all, the south of Ukraine is an agricultural region, and we have a lot of irrigation and water supply channels, and the Russians use them like trenches," Ukraine's Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said at a press conference. "It's more convenient for them."

On Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin gave a televised address at the Valdai Club, a think tank and discussion forum, where he said the world faces its most dangerous decade since World War II and he railed against cancel culture. He accused the West of playing a "dangerous, bloody and dirty" geopolitical game that is sowing chaos around the globe.

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