They Way Ukraine Reduced Russia's 5-Front War To 1

A remarkable strategic accomplishment, achieved with intelligence, planning, guile, patience and great leadership. 

What remains is to let the Russians continue to waste their manpower and equipment in senseless attacks that end in slaughter. Until those who remain die - or rebel. JL

Daily Kos reports:

This was once a five-front war—Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Donbas, and Kherson. All that remains today is Donbas—northern Luhansk and Donetsk. Ukraine has systematically pushed Russia into that single front, where it remains incapable of mounting any serious strategically-relevant offensive operations. Russia has a near-endless supply of mobilized cannon fodder for suicide attacks on Ukrainian trenches. The key will be to continue degrading Russia’s command and control and logistics, cut remaining supply lines from Crimea, cut its water, and leave it open to Ukrainian liberation.

This was once a five-front war—Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Donbas, and Kherson. All that remains today is Donbas—northern Luhansk (Svatove), and Donetsk (Bakhmut, Donetsk City environs, and Pavlivka/Vulhedar).

Ukraine has systematically pushed Russia into that single front, where it remains incapable of mounting any serious strategically-relevant offensive operations. On the downside, Russia can now concentrate all of its forces, including artillery, into a much smaller front line. Sure, Ukraine can do so as well, but it means that this meat-grinder of a front is becoming even more deadly for both sides. 

Ukraine will want to avoid a repeat of the April-June Battle of the Donbas attritional war. Russia has a near-endless supply of mobilized cannon fodder for suicide attacks on Ukrainian trenches. It’s similarly difficult to advance on that mass of Russian bodies in reinforced defensive positions. The key will be to continue degrading Russia’s command and control and logistics. That means Svatove and Starobilsk are must-takes, as those would knock the Belgorod hub out of the war, forcing Russia to route supply lines to Ukraine’s eastern border, as well as Melitopol, which would collapse the Russian presence in southeast Ukraine, cut any remaining supply lines from Crimea, cut its water, and leave it open to Ukrainian liberation. 

At that point, we’d be mostly back to the February borders in the Donbas, with Russia severely depleted. It’s no accident that war videos today are mostly exposed Russian infantry getting shredded by drones and artillery, with very little Russian armor in sight. They’ve got nothing left but lives to throw into the grinder. 

That means we can expect many more months of mass death around Bakhmut and Svatove and other settlements around those “hot” areas on the map above, as Ukraine merely holds its ground while plotting strategic advances toward Melitopol/Crimea in the south, and Svatove/Starobilsk in the northeast. Sucks for those poor Ukrainian stuck in those trenches. What a nightmare.

My guess? And this is a guess, not a suggestions or demand—Once Ukraine has pushed Russia back to the original February Donbas borders, with Russia’s southern Crimea positions under real Ukrainian threat, the possibilities of negotiations becomes real.