A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Nov 13, 2022

Why Did Russians Undermine Their Occupation With Brutality, Looting?

As cheering throngs greet advancing Ukrainian troops like liberators - even in areas that were pro-Russian prior to the invasion - questions arise as to why the Russians behaved so savagely rather than attempting to win hearts and minds of people ostensibly fellow Russians. 

The answer appears to be that the Russians really expected a quick victory, did not anticipate Ukrainian hostility, had no real occupation plan and when faced with the reality, reverted to their army's deeply "ingrained brutality, corruption and lack of discipline." The ongoing discovery of mass graves and reports of civilian torture will contribute to Russia's legacy as a global pariah. JL

Chris O reports in Twitter:

One of the biggest mysteries of this war is why the Russians don't seem to have undertaken any hearts and minds efforts. They undermined their own occupation with relentless looting and brutality. The root cause is likely that the Russians intended to invade, execute a quick regime change and leave, without the difficulty and cost of a large-scale occupation. So they went in without an occupation plan (and not enough troops). With no plan, they made little effort to get local people on their side. The Russian army's ingrained brutality, corruption and lack of discipline took overOne of the biggest mysteries of this war, at least to me, is why the Russians don't seem to have undertaken any kind of hearts and minds efforts. They undermined their own occupation with relentless looting and brutality.

 

What makes this even crazier is that the people treated this way are - officially at least - supposed to be Russian citizens! It also completely contradicts the rhetoric of liberation rather than hostile occupation. These weren't Afghans, they were 'fellow Russians'.

 

I think the root cause of this is likely to be that the Russians originally intended to invade, execute a quick regime change, grab the whole of the Donbas and leave, without the extra difficulty and cost of a large-scale occupation. So they likely went in without an occupation plan (and certainly not enough troops). With no clear plan, they made little effort to get local people on their side. The Russian army's ingrained brutality, corruption and lack of discipline took over instead. (Parallels with Iraq?)

 

To be honest, those factors may well have doomed any hearts and minds efforts in any case. But it's very striking that they barely seem to have even made any effort.

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