A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Nov 10, 2022

Why the Russian Retreat From Kherson Is So Significant

From a military perspective, it acknowledges the superior performance of the Ukrainian forces versus the Russians. It thus undermines the appeasers who are calling for negotiations which are clearly premature. 

But it is also a signal that Putin is willing to act rationally when it is to his advantage to do so. And that should reassure some of those fearful of the consequences of Ukraine justifiably insisting on preconditions for any negotiation. JL

Max Boot reports in the Washington Post:

From the Russian military perspective, this retreat makes sense. As Gen. Sergei Surovikin, the commander of Russian forces in Ukraine, said in a televised exchange, this move would “save the lives of our military and combat capability.” But this decision, while a military necessity, nevertheless represents a humiliating defeat for Putin. The best news about the retreat is that it provides more evidence that Putin is rational — he isn’t another Hitler who wants to die in his bunker and doesn’t care how many people he takes with him.

Adolf Hitler was notorious during the German invasion of the Soviet Union for refusing to give his troops permission to retreat even when that was the only tactical move that made any sense. Even when the Red Army was encircling the German Sixth Army outside Stalingrad in late 1942, the Füehrer refused permission for his troops to stage a breakout. “I won’t go back from the Volga!” he shouted.

The New York Times reported in late September that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin was giving his own version of a no-retreat order to Russian forces hard-pressed by a Ukrainian offensive in the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson. Putin was unwilling, it seemed, to fall back from the Dnieper River.

But, if that was the case then, it no longer seems to be the case now. On Wednesday, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced the retreat of Russian forces to the eastern side of the Dnieper. Assuming this is not a feint, the Russians are leaving behind the only regional capital they had captured. This is not an order a yes man such as Shoigu would have issued on his own; it clearly came from the top.

 

From the Russian military perspective, this retreat makes sense. As Gen. Sergei Surovikin, the commander of Russian forces in Ukraine, said in a televised exchange with Shoigu, this move would “save the lives of our military and combat capability.” The eastern bank will be much easier for Moscow’s forces to defend because Ukrainians will have to cross the river under fire to continue their offensive.

But this decision, while a military necessity, nevertheless represents a humiliating defeat for Putin. Kherson is an important Black Sea port and the capital of one of the four regions that Putin illegally annexed in September. Moreover, the Russians hoped to use Kherson as a base from which to eventually take the nearby Ukrainian cities of Mykolaiv and Odessa. That would have allowed them to choke off Ukraine from the Black Sea, its major trade artery.

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Now, the Russian offensive is going in reverse. They are having to stage one of the most difficult military operations to carry out: a “retrograde” under fire. The Ukrainians will get to decide how hard or how easy it will be for the Russians to evacuate Kherson; Russian troops will be especially vulnerable to attack when they are crossing the river.

The Russians are not only losing a significant beachhead on the western bank of the Dnieper River — they are also losing access to the Northern Crimean Canal, which had routed water from the Dnieper River to Crimea. Ukrainian officials had stopped the water flow in 2014 in retaliation for Russia’s illegal seizure of the Crimean Peninsula. In June, Russian forces got the water flowing again. Now, it will presumably be shut off.

That will make Crimea harder to hold and will further undermine Putin’s coveted “land bridge” to Russia. The actual bridge that Putin built to link Crimea to the Russian mainland across the Kerch Strait was badly damaged in a mysterious explosion in October widely attributed to Ukrainian special forces.

Even before giving up Kherson, Russia had already lost roughly half of the territory it had occupied since February. Now, this retreat makes clear to the Russian people how badly the war is going and provides much-needed encouragement to the Ukrainians at a time when they are struggling with the loss of electricity, heat and water in cities such as Kyiv as a result of Russian missile strikes.

This latest Ukrainian victory will also help to keep together the pro-Ukraine coalition in the West even if energy prices spike over the winter. It should provide further impetus to Congress to pass another massive aid package for Ukraine this fall before an expected Republican takeover of the House — and that takeover, while still likely, will result in fewer MAGA members than expected.

In some ways, the best news about the retreat is that it provides more evidence that Putin is rational — he isn’t another Hitler who wants to die in his bunker and doesn’t care how many people he takes with him. It reinforces the point I made earlier this week, in writing about Putin’s willingness to allow Ukraine’s Black Sea grain exports and to back off from his nuclear threats: The Russian strongman is a rational actor who is willing to retreat under pressure if it is to his advantage to do so.

That should lessen concern that Putin will launch World War III if he doesn’t get his way in Ukraine. Putin certainly miscalculates (as he did in invading Ukraine), and he is definitely reluctant to concede defeat. But he is not unstable, stupid or suicidal. Thus the retreat from Kherson offers encouraging news not only about the state of the war in Ukraine but also about the state of Putin’s mind.

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