Bakhmut Is Unlivable But Serving As Ukrainian Killing Ground For Russian Troops

Russian forces in Bakhmut continue to take unimaginable casualties - at least by the standards of civilized societies - and the Ukrainians continue to bleed them as they did last summer in Severodonetsk, while grudgingly giving up ground in the process. 

Since many of the dead and wounded Russians are convicted criminals released in return for their agreement to serve in Ukraine, their loss rates don't matter to Russian commanders. But with Russia's jail population reportedly down 25% since recruiting in prisons started, there will eventually  be a limit to the supply. JL 

Mark Sumner reports in Daily Kos:

Through six months of constant assault and bombardment, devastated buildings, homes, and people, leave Bakhmut as little but “burnt ruins” and making the city an impossible place to live. In terms of area that Russia has “taken” over the last few days it is all, 100%, areas where Russian forces have been before. It is all still under fire from Ukrainian positions in the city and under Ukrainian artillery fire from guns further west. There continue to be reports of heavy Russian casualties. Right now, at Bakhmut, the most that can be said with any certainty is that fighting continues.

 

The number of Russian forces lost in the single strike on Melitopol is estimated to be somewhere north of 150. Some of them were reportedly troops recently relocated from the Kherson area.

UPDATE: Saturday, Dec 10, 2022 · 7:15:59 PM EST · Mark Sumner

Reports are that this strike was carried out using HIMARS from Zaporizhzhia City. However, that’s a distance of about 100km. Ukraine would have had to take HIMARS right down to the edge of its controlled territory to reach these sites within the 70km published range of standard HIMARS ammo. Which would be a very bold move.

Or Ukraine used something with a longer range.

One place where there’s no doubt about the intensity of battles going on is Bakhmut. Over the last three days, Russia has captured the window factory and the city garbage dump. On Friday, they reportedly took the furniture factory. If that last one sounds familiar, it may be because Russia has claimed to occupy that position several dozen times in the past, but have been unable to hold it.

However, there is deep concern that this push by Russia is more serious than past efforts. The wave attacks by poorly trained conscripts, many of them taken from Russian prisons, are still there, but Wagner seems to be following up those waves with some of its more experienced troops and armored vehicles, all of it under the cover of exceptionally heavy artillery. There is no doubt that Ukrainian forces there are in a tough spot, as they have been for months, and based on the reports of analysts with a proven track record in Ukraine, that situation is now as bad, or worse, than it has been at any time in the conflict.

Russian forces are pressing the town from the south and east, forcing Ukraine to move back from some forward positions they have held for months. Recent attempts to counter Russia’s push into Bakhmut don’t appear to have been successful and Wagner seems to be exerting a higher level of pressure than has been seen, at least over the last three months.

In his nightly address, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Russia has “destroyed” Bakhmut. Not in the sense that they have driven out Ukrainian forces, but in that through six months of constant assault and bombardment, they have devastated the buildings, homes, and people, leaving Bakhmut as little but “burnt ruins” and making the city an impossible place to live. While there have been efforts until now to maintain some semblance of normalcy in parts of the city, and to keep residents who chose to remain in Bakhmut supplied with food, water, and other necessary goods, there is now an accelerated effort to evacuate remaining civilians.

However, if there is one phrase that you’re likely to see if you go skimming through the media for mention of Bakhmut this morning, it’s either that “Ukrainian forces have suffered a heavy loss.” That’s being reported because the Institute for the Study of War passed it along apparently unaltered and unsupported from Russian propagandists. That. combined with AP’s morning headline of “Russia grinds on in eastern Ukraine; Bakhmut 'destroyed'” has resulted in a flood of articles this morning written as if Bakhmut is already history; as if it’s already fallen.

This is not the case.

Bakhmut. Open image in another tab for a larger view.

Right now, almost everything we’re talking about in terms of area that Russia has “taken” over the last few days is in that green oval. It is all, 100%, areas where Russian forces have been before. It is all still under fire from Ukrainian positions in the city and under Ukrainian artillery fire from guns further west.

There are definitely reasons for concern, and some of the biggest pro-Ukrainian military bloggers are warning that the situation there is bad, with fighting now going on at the extreme west of that green oval and the possibility that Russia well press in from that position, or from positions on the south.

But it hasn’t happened yet, and it may not happen at all. Ukraine has also moved additional forces into the area, and while some of those forces may have been lost in what was reported to be a failed advance earlier in the week, there’s no evidence that those losses are as “massive” as Russian sources are trying to pretend. This is by no means a story where the outcome is already determined.

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I’m putting up this because it contains a glimpse of the river that runs through Bakhmut. This river is still some distance from the front lines at the moment, but here it can be seen to be channelized — meaning it’s neat and straight, with little in the way of surrounding floodplain and hard surface on either side. It’s the kind of river that can easily be addressed by bridging equipment, though that equipment, and bridge, would certainly become targets.

Russian sources on Saturday are reporting that Ukrainian troops are “falling back from Soledar after heavy losses.” Soledar is less than 10km from Bakhmut and has also been an area of steady Russian assaults over a period of at least four months.

As with all such statements, this has to be taken with so much salt that it’s hard to know if anything remains. Ukrainian sources have reported attempted Russian advances in the area. There have been indications from Ukrainian sources of a “changed policy” in both Bakhmut and Soledar that may mean the lines are established in a new location. On the other hand, there continue to be reports of heavy Russian casualties in the area. 

Russian sources are also claiming that taking Soledar will cut off supplies to Ukrainian forces north at Kreminna and Svatove. That’s one’s simple — it’s not true. They are also claiming that forces at Soledar are falling back to Kramatorsk and Slavyansk. That one is simply ridiculous.

Right now, as at Bakhmut, the most that can be said with any certainty is that fighting continues at Soledar. For all anyone knows at the moment, that new Ukrainian strategy may be an all out counterattack, but at the moment, very little seems to have changed.