A Blog by Jonathan Low

 

Dec 13, 2022

Russia Is Increasingly Reliant On Aging, Degraded Artillery Ammunition

As profligate use over the course of the invasion - combined with sanctions - limits the availability of more artillery shells, Russia is increasingly relying on ammo that is 40 years old or more, which may detonate prematurely when being handled - or not detonate at all when it lands. 

Ukrainian forces have noted a decrease in shelling frequency over the past few weeks. JL 

Howard Altman reports in The Drive:

Russia is increasingly relying on degraded, potentially dangerous-to-handle artillery and rocket rounds - in some cases produced more than four decades ago - as its stocks of new munitions are depleting after more than nine months of full-on war in Ukraine. Russian reliance on older ammunition has resulted in a lot of duds. “You load the ammunition and you cross your fingers and hope it's going to fire. Or wherever it lands that it's going to explode.”

Russia is increasingly relying on degraded, potentially dangerous-to-handle artillery and rocket rounds - in some cases produced more than four decades ago - as its stocks of new munitions are depleting after more than nine months of full-on war in Ukraine, according to the Pentagon.

The Russian stocks of what the Pentagon calls “fully serviceable” or new artillery and rocket rounds will likely last until early next year, a senior U.S. defense official told reporters, including from The War Zone, Monday.

But those stocks are “rapidly dwindling, probably forcing them to increasingly use ammunition in what we would consider degraded conditions,” the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity. “So this essentially puts Russian forces in a position to have to make a choice about what risks it's willing to accept in terms of increased failure rates, unpredictable performance, and whether or not these degraded munitions would require any type of refurbishment, which of course requires a certain amount of expertise at times.”

 

Russian reliance on older ammunition has resulted in a lot of duds, or worse, said the official.

“You load the ammunition and you cross your fingers and hope it's going to fire,” the official said. “Or wherever it lands that it's going to explode.”

Russia has “drawn from its aging ammunition stockpile, which does indicate that they are willing to use that older ammunition some of which was originally produced more than 40 years ago,” the official said.

As a result, “the Russian military will very likely struggle to replenish its reserve of fully serviceable artillery and rocket ammunition through foreign suppliers, increased domestic production and refurbishment.”

 

That’s why Russia is turning to Iran and North Korea “to try to obtain some more dependable ammunition,” the official said.

But Russia may no longer be able to count on Iran to provide short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs), something Ukrainian intelligence officials said had been anticipated to take place last month.

Iran, fearing an international backlash, “wants to limit the range of the missiles it plans to provide Russia for the war in Ukraine, four senior Israeli officials told Axios, citing intelligence reports.”

The U.S. position is that such transfers of arms from Iran to Russia violate UN Security Council resolution 2231, which among other things calls for any Iranian nuclear, ballistic missile or arms transfers to be approved by the U.N.

 

In an effort to mitigate the international fallout and not violate that resolution, “Iran plans to give Russia only missiles with a range of less than 300 kilometers and modify other missiles so they stay within the parameters of the resolution, the Israeli officials said,” according to Axios.

This includes the Fateh-110 missile system, which has a range of 300 kilometers, but, according to the report "the Iranians plan to modify it so that it doesn't violate the resolution, according to the Israeli officials."

The Iranians had also considered sending Russia the Zolfaghar missile, with a range of about 435 miles, but are no longer planning to, according to Axios.

You can read more about those Iran’s SRBMs and its previous plans to ship them to Russia in our coverage here. We will have to wait and see if these reports of an altered export strategy for the missiles prove accurate.British Defense Minister Ben Wallace, meanwhile, on Monday said his nation was not ruling out sending longer-range munitions to Ukraine than the Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) for the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS and M270 multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) provided by the U.S. and allies.

So far, those launchers, which have had a major impact on the battlefield already, fire M30A1 and M31A1 227mm precision-guided rockets, which have advanced fragmentation and unity high-explosive warheads respectively. Both types have a stated maximum range of at least approximately 43.5 miles (70 kilometers).

To date, the U.S. has declined to provide Ukraine with any variant of the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) short-range ballistic missile that would greatly extend the range the country could hold Russian targets at risk of missile attacks. It can also destroy larger, more heavily fortified targets across its up to nearly 200-mile range.

But Monday, Wallace said if Russia continues to attack Ukraine's civilian infrastructure, he will keep an "open mind" on the systems Britain will provide Ukraine.

Such attacks, he said, are "against all the rules of law, including the Geneva Conventions" and "not only a war crime, but is a war crime that we must see does not go unpunished. I constantly review the weapon systems we could provide."

"We too have in our armory potential weapon systems that are longer [range], and should the Russians continue to target civilian areas and try and break those Geneva conventions then I will be open-minded to seeing what we do next."

What exactly he is referring to isn't clear. Storm Shadow cruise missiles, a highly advanced air-launched weapon, and submarine-launched Tomahawk cruise missiles are the only types in inventory that immediately come to mind. Tomahawk is a non-starter and Storm Shadow would be a major escalation in capabilities if offered to Ukraine in some form.





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