Ukraine Destroying More Russian Armor and Troops At Bakhmut, Velyka, Novosilka

The Russians are increasing their attack tempo at various points on the Donbas front - but with even worse than the usual results.

While not entirely clear why they continue to pursue a failed strategy, their is evidence they are feeling pressure from the Kremlin to forestall another Ukrainian offensive especially as Putin hopes they will be forced to negotiate. JL 

Daily Kos reports:

Ukraine destroyed 24 tanks and eight armored infantry vehicles yesterday—a dramatic increase compared to the typical two three tanks on an average day. We haven’t seen numbers this high since the liberation of Kharkiv oblast. Ukraine just completed a troop rotation in Bakhmut. A much-deserved rest for the troops rotated out. Now Russia’s weary Wagner convicts and conscripts have to attack against fresh, well-equipped defenders (fighting over) 100 square kilometers around Bakhmut in the last three months. In that same time, Ukraine liberated 25,000 square kilometers in Kharkiv and Kherson oblasts.

Sometime around Dec. 9 or 10, Russian forces mounted a major attack on the town of Velyka Novosilka in southern Ukraine. The Russian milblogger “Novorossiya Z.O.V.”, with 300,000 followers, reported the assault:

The decision to attack in the Velyka Novosilka area looks potentially dangerous for the right flank of the Ukrainian grouping in the Donbass.

Back in the spring, Russian troops had a chance to wedge in this direction 15-20 km deeper, but it did not work out.
If success is achieved now, two important operational tasks will be solved:

- access to the highway Zaporozhye - Donetsk, which is guaranteed to complicate the supply of the APU group;

- create a threat to the formation of the “Vuhledar pocket", which will save Russian troops from a head-on attack on Vuhledar through uncomfortable terrain and will allow three combat-ready Ukrainian brigades to be taken into the operational "semi-ring".

Exciting stuff for the pro-Russia crowd! Let’s look at where that is on the map. First up, here’s the big-picture view: 

Ukraine’s front lines

This attack was at the southernmost point of the front. Here’s the closeup: 

Russia really really really wants Vuhledar. As you can see, it would partly cut off supply lines to several front-line towns just west of Donetsk city (at the right edge of this map). However, an entire naval infantry regiment has been wiped out trying to get there through Pavlivka, and Vuhledar is high terrain, making it extremely difficult to approach over vast, open, agricultural steppe. 

Some Russian therefore got the bright idea: “Why not go through Velyka Novosilka instead, thus cutting off its supply lines to Pavlivka and Vuhledar from the west?” Why not, indeed? A look a the map shows there’s actual logic here. 

The problem is that Ukraine knows the importance of holding Velyka Novosilka, as that entire stretch of front depends on it for supplies. Suffice to say, it’s really well-defended. “Back in the spring, Russian troops had a chance to wedge in this direction 15-20 km deeper, but it did not work out,” wrote that milblogger above nonchalantly. “It did not work out” is the propagandist way of saying, “We got our asses handed to us.” Yet what he fails to mention is that at the time, that corner of the front wasn’t particularly well-defended, and Russia did miss an opportunity to make some gains given its fragmented and disjointed attacks across five different axes. Since then, Ukraine has turned the settlement into a stronghold.

That little snapshot might point to even bigger losses, as Ukraine claimed it destroyed 24 tanks and eight armored infantry vehicles yesterday—a dramatic increase compared to the typical two three tanks on an average day. In fact, we haven’t seen numbers this high since the liberation of Kharkiv oblast. 

As for those Russian propaganda outlets, don’t worry: They’ve got this. You see, the attack all went according to plan! Mega-popular Russian milblogger Alexander Khodakovsky, with 630,000 Telegram subscribers, boasted about their great victory:

According to the latest data, ours in the Velyka Novosilka direction have returned to their original position. Everything was planned as an offensive, but in fact it took place as a reconnaissance in force. I am not exaggerating - everyone who was not involved in assault operations very carefully observed the enemy by all means and learned a lot of useful things. As for the offensive, the result speaks of insufficient readiness. But it’s also good that they didn’t cling to the advanced positions, left almost without a fight by the enemy, for the sake of a red piece on the map, and become targets in the shooting range.

You see, it was a glorious attack, and they won! He’s totally not exaggerating. But then they decided that maybe they weren’t ready, and it wasn’t an attack, it was just reconnaissance, and they had won and everything and Ukraine wasn’t even fighting back, so they decided to retreat anyway. Glory to Russia!

Though I will admit, some of that logic is sound. Russia should retreat from everywhere, lest they become targets in the shooting range for the sake of a red piece on the map. Why stop here?

Regardless, I bet they did learn some things. Like, perhaps, don’t attack all clumped in a neat line, making it extra easy for Ukrainian defenders to pick off one by one. You’d think they would’ve learned that months ago, but here we are. This time they learned, and you know that because he's not even kidding! Maybe they learned not to attack at all! That would be a valuable lesson indeed. They certainly learned that they can’t sneak up on the Ukrainians.

Now we wait to see if Russia keeps pounding their heads against Velyka Novosilka like they did in Svatove, and they keep doing in Bakhmut. But really, look at that drone footage. It’s all open field, with Ukraine holding deeply entrenched positions, all under clear view of the defenders. 

Ukraine just completed a troop rotation in Bakhmut. A  much-deserved rest for the troops rotated out, having held the town and its suburbs for the last couple of months. Now Russia’s hapless and weary Wagner convicts and conscripts have to continue their attacks against fresh, well-equipped defenders. (The Ukrainian troops in Kherson had the best, most modern gear we’ve yet seen.)  We’re talking maybe 100 square kilometers total around Bakhmut in the last three months? In that same time period, Ukraine liberated 25,000 square kilometers in Kharkiv and Kherson oblasts.