Why Russian Navy Is So Nervous About Ukraine's' New Harpoon Anti-Ship Missiles

The Ukrainians' celebrated sinking of the Russian flagship Moskva was done with domestically produced Neptune missiles, which are in short supply due to wartime supply chain constraints. 

The NATO standard Harpoon has a longer range, better targeting - and there are plenty of them. This is of concern to the Russian navy as it puts their entire Black Sea fleet at risk as well as its primary naval base at Sebastopol in Crimea. The provision of the Harpoon to Ukraine suggests that the west is now preparing to end the Russian naval blockade which has impacted global grain supplies and contributed to inflation. JL

Peter Suciu reports in 19fortyfive:

The all-weather, over-the-horizon, Harpoon was developed by Boeing Defense, Space & Security and it utilizes active radar homing to fly just above the water and evade defenses. The RGM-84L-4 Harpoon Block II are capable of hitting targets in port and on land with an upgrade.The Harpoon anti-ship missiles could threaten the logistics hub for the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol, which would make it more difficult for Russia to rearm after missile strikes on land targets in Ukraine.

Putin's Jack-in-the-Box: Why Russia Has Lost Over 1,000 Tanks In Ukraine

Ukrainian and NATO troops are calling Russian tanks 'Putin's jack-in-the-box" after the children's toy in which a hidden spring pops a surprise up through the top of the box. 

Cost-but-not-safety conscious ammunition storage design in Russian tanks places the ammo in the turret, which also happens to be the thinnest armored for mobility. But when hit with an anti-tank missile, it means the ammunition explodes and blows the turret off, frequently killing the crew. JL 

Sofrep reports, image Michael McKay:

US intel reveals 1,00 Russian tanks destroyed or inoperable due to Ukrainians sending their turrets into low Earth orbit with anti-armor weapons. The Ukrainians estimate 1,330 tanks have been destroyed. The war has exposed a fatal design flaw of the Russian tanks taken advantage of by the Ukrainians: the “jack-in-the-box effect” as turrets are blown off from chassis because of bad ammunition placement. Russian tanks' ammunition is stored in the turret. When a Javelin or NLAW is fired at it, the top portion of the tank has thinner armor to pierce through, the ammunition gets hit too, resulting in a more violent cook-off of the ammunition and death of the crew.

How Walmart Is Expanding Its Use of Drone Deliveries

4 million households in 6 states now have access to Walmart drone delivery. 

And the company is finding consumer uptake not for emergencies as it expected, but primarily for convenience. Which perhaps underscores why retailers have less to fear from inflationary impact on sales than initially thought. JL 

Will Feuer reports in the Wall Street Journal:

Walmart is expanding its drone delivery operations to some 4 million households in six states, as the big-box retailer looks to add speedy delivery to compete with Amazon. Walmart will be able to deliver 1 million packages by drone a year in 30 minutes to households. The service will have a $3.99 delivery fee per order and can deliver up to 10 pounds at a time. “We’re finding customers use it for sheer convenience, like a quick fix for a weeknight meal.”

The Strategic Choices Now Facing Ukraine's Army

In the medium to long term, Ukraine's advantages in manpower (700K vs 200K for the Russians), in new weaponry from NATO and in the intangibles of morale and leadership give it the edge. 

But in the short term, Russia's preponderance of artillery will enable some tactical gains. It is crucial for Ukraine that pride or anger not turn tactical decisions into strategic failures like Russia's. JL 

Mick Ryan reports in War In the Future:

Despite the magnificent strategic and tactical ability the Ukrainians have demonstrated, every Army in history eventually loses a few battles. And ceding ground to preserve a force is useful in the short term.The Ukrainians are having to make tough calls about priorities for logistics, artillery & air support. They can’t support every fight at every point of the battlefield. The key is ensuring that tactical losses don’t translate into Russian operational gains. If Ukraine has mobilised 700K troops (versus 200K Russians) & can build Western support, Ukrainian advantages will come in the medium term. Russian gains, and Ukrainian challenges, in the east are normal elements of warfare.

Ukraine Attacks In South Towards Kherson To Relieve Donbas

Though the news from Ukrainian forces has appeared grim, with Russia raining rocket and artillery on them, there has been a persistent subtext about counter offensives elsewhere. 

Although preliminary, it may be that Ukraine is launching attacks towards Kherson and Crimea both to divert Russian forces to the east and to threaten the land bridge so essential to Putin's dreams of conquest. Stay tuned. JL 

Daily Kos reports:

That new Ukrainian tank brigade recently activated near Kryvyi Rih, cobbled together from reservists, Polish tanks, and Dutch armored personnel carriers might have their sights set on Kherson in the south. If those accounts are accurate, it’s not a particularly large attack—about the size of a Russian BTG. Ukraine’s brand new tank brigade has 100 tanks, plus another 70 or so armored personnel carriers. This might be, designed to cut off supply lines to Russian forces to the north. But Nova Kahkovka is the source of water for all of Crimea. Just threatening the town should require Russia reinforce it

Back In the USSR - Sanctions Begin To Create Soviet-Era Shortages For Russians

It is not clear how many contemporary Russians, accustomed to western luxury goods and to vacations in the south of France, Spain's Costa Brava and London will find enticing the offer to buy plots of land so they can grow potatoes to feed themselves. JL 

Patricia Cohen and colleagues report in the New York Times:

Gripped by heavy economic sanctions and increasingly isolated from Western suppliers, Russia works to stave off a return to Soviet-era scarcity. Basic items, from paper to buttons, are in short supply. Prices of consumer goods have been soaring, with the inflation rate rising to 17.8%. The Russian automaker Avtotor announced a lottery for free 10-acre plots of land - and the chance to buy seed potatoes - so workers could grow their own food. As the central bank slashed interest rates again, its chairwoman warned that the coming months would be “difficult for both companies and citizens.”

US Set To Approve Long Range Rocket Systems For Ukraine

This is one of the most advanced weapons in the US arsenal and can shoot farther than any other that Ukraine possesses. 

It could help offset the current Russian advantage in firepower - and Russia has already attacked even the potential decision as a 'provocation,' meaning they recognize its potentially negative impact on their army. JL 

Paul McLeary and Lara Seligman report in Politico:

The U.S. is weighing supplying rockets that can travel roughly between 20 to 45 miles, further than the shells fired by the M777 howitzers sent to Ukraine in May, which can reach about 15 miles. The U.S.-made Multiple Launch Rocket System and the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System can launch rockets farther than any weapons Ukraine currently possesses. The mobile, tracked system can fire 12 guided rockets in under a minute and can move again quickly before enemy artillery can zero in on its location.

Public Anger Grows At Reports of Texas Kids Calling 911 As Police Waited "Because They Could've Been Shot"

There was already anger from parents of murdered children at a Texas elementary school at police hesitation to engage the lone gunman who shot 19 4th graders and their teachers.

That was before a Texas Department of Public Safety official acknowledged that the police were reluctant "because they could've been shot." Which most people believe is what police are paid to do. The revelation has raised further questions about gun laws so lax that even trained and heavily armed professionals are afraid to confront those able to purchase such weapons without restriction. The question is whether this latest massacre, in Texas, a state which reveres gun culture, will finally be enough to spur changes in gun access laws. JL 

Jim Vertuno and Elliot Spagat report in the AP via the Chicago Sun-Times, and Timothy Bella reports in the Washington Post, image Marco Bello, Reuters:

Police were reluctant to engage with the gunman who spent an hour inside the elementary school in Uvalde, Tex., where he killed 19 children and two adults because “they could’ve been shot." 20 officers stood in a hallway outside the classrooms during the attack on a Texas elementary school for more than 45 minutes before confronting one gunman. Teachers and children repeatedly called 911 asking for help, including a girl who pleaded: “Please send the police now.” What happened has fueled mounting public anger over law enforcement’s response to the rampage. “Based on best practices, it’s very difficult to understand why there were any delays, particularly of 40 minutes." 

What Secret Preparatory Planning Helped NATO Thwart Russia In Ukraine

NATO allies began seriously discussing how to prepare for a Russian invasion of Ukraine almost a full year before the actual attack. Specific planning began in December 2021, including the details of sanctions and weapons transfers.

When Russia invaded, NATO had already begun supplying Ukraine with Stinger and Javelin missiles and had mapped out how larger and more powerful war materiel would be transferred by air, road and rail. As a result, Putin's plan for a quick, overwhelming victory against a clueless victim was utterly thwarted and with Ukraine's impressive performance, has turned into a military, economic and reputational embarrassment for Russia. JL

David Ignatius reports in the Washington Post, image Beate Dahle, Euractiv:

The Biden administration’s secret planning began in April 2021 when Russia massed troops on the Ukrainian border. The buildup turned out to be a feint, but officials discussed U.S. intelligence about Russia’s actions with NATO. Their message was, “We need to get prepared.” In December 2021 (the US) began seriously discussing with allies what steps they would take, committing there would be “massive consequences and severe costs.  When aggression actually happened, we were able to move immediately.” NATO began preparing in December and January the “ground lines” that would allow rapid shipment of arms into Ukraine. This delivered Stinger and Javelin missiles before the invasion. Putin made a catastrophic mistake in underestimating the resolve of Biden and (NATO).

How Ukraine and Russia Employ Dueling Strategies In Donbas Battle

Ukraine is employing the war of maneuver and surprise which served them well around Kyiv and Kharkiv. Russia is attempting an artillery-heavy war of bombardment and attrition. 

It is a race against time for both. Russia is running out of troops and equipment, while Ukraine is hanging on until it can get its growing supply of troops and weapons ready. The odds favor Ukraine, if it can hold out long enough. JL 

Andrew Kramer reports in the New York Times:

As the war grinds across the plains and forests of Eastern Ukraine, the maneuvering of troops has evolved into attempts at entrapment. But the tactic comes with grave risks.After failing to capture Kyiv, or to cleave off the entire Black Sea coast, the Russian military attempted an encirclement of Ukrainian troops in the east. That effort is looking difficult now that Ukraine has blocked one main route of advance. “In the big scheme of things, Ukraine is trying to do maneuver warfare to regain territory and cut off resupply routes. And Russia is doing more of a grinding, attrition-based warfare."

The Reason Ukraine Isn't Retreating From Surrounded Donbas Cities

Ukraine is creating another Mariupol in the Donbas, a fortress city that ties up thousands of Russian troops for weeks, while the Ukrainian army makes headway elsewhere - and waits for the arrival of more NATO heavy weaponry. 

The strategy is to degrade Russian capabilities through a war of attrition as analysis suggests Russia is running out of manpower and equipment. If Ukraine can hang on, Russia will have exhausted its capability to attack and will be left with paltry gains to show for its effort. But the price for that is going to be more Ukrainian soldiers' lives. JL 

Daily Kos reports:

Severodonetsk is the next Mariupol—a city that sucks up a disproportionate amount of Russia’s combat power in order to slow the invader’s advance. Ukraine needs two months to assemble all its reservists and western weaponry, every day that Severodonetsk holds out is one day closer to that magic future date. The U.S. is sending heavy vehicles by ship. Shipping times from US east coast to France is 24 days. Then they have to be unloaded and rail-shipped. Optimistically, this armor won’t be in Ukraine’s hands for 6-8 weeks. Ukraine needs to buy time, and keeping Severodonetsk is part of that strategy.

Even Before Uvalde, Guns Were the Leading Cause of US Children's Deaths

Firearms have been the leading cause of US children's deaths for several years now. And the data reveal that children are being killed by guns more than twice as often as the rest of the population. 

The question is whether the US has the socio-political will to stop this eminently correctable trend. JL  

Jason Goldstick, Ph.D and colleagues report in The New England Journal of Medicine:

New data show a sharp 13.5% increase in the rate of firearm-related death from 2019 to 2020. This change was driven largely by firearm homicides, which saw a 33.4% increase. Previous analysis, which examined data through 2016, showed firearm-related injuries were second only to motor vehicle crashes as the leading cause of death among children and adolescents, 1 to 19 years of age. In 2020, firearm-related injuries became the leading cause of death in that age group. The increase in firearm-related deaths among children and adolescents was 29.5%, more than twice as high as the increase in the general population

Russia's Elite Airborne Forces Suffering 'Heavy Casualties From Tactical Failures'

Russia's airborne forces were its best trained and equipped, but strategic misperceptions about Ukraine's capabilities caused them to be squandered in often tactically incompetent actions which wasted their expertise and potential. JL 

Morgan Winsor and colleagues report in ABC, image Murray Brewster, CBC:

The Russian military's airborne forces, known as the VDV, "have been heavily involved in several notable tactical failures since the start of Russia's invasion. This includes the attempted advance on Kyiv via Hostomel Airfield in March, the stalled progress on the Izium axis since April, and the recent failed and costly crossings of the Siverskyi Donets River." The VDV's "mixed performance likely reflects a strategic mismanagement of this capability and Russia’s failure to secure air superiority."

How Ukraine's Innovative Weaponry 'War Hacks' Help Counter Russians

Ukraine's capacity for adaptation, innovation and creativity have enabled its forces to use technology in ways that many of the manufacturers or countries that donated did not realize were possible. And that is part of what is keeping Ukraine in the fight despite Russia's equipment advantage. JL 

Greg Myre reports in NPR, image The Telegraph:

Ukraine has had to figure out creative ways to defend itself and fight back, calling them 'war hacks.' When the U.S. provided radar equipment that detected incoming Russian artillery fire, "the Ukrainians used it in ways that I did not know were possible. And it's not just technical, but tactical, how they employed it." Ukrainian artillery units use a network of computer tablets on the battlefield to better coordinate their attacks on the Russians. When the Russians stole Ukrainian cell phones, Ukrainian citizens reported the thefts. This allowed Ukrainian officials to listen in on the calls the Russians made on the stolen phones. 'What an army now seems to march on is its mobile networks.'

Why Aren't AI and Other New Technologies Improving Productivity?

It may simply be too soon to see results, given the expense of implementing new technologies, a challenge compounded by the relative lack of talent who have the requisite skills. The small companies which comprise 75% of American business have neither the resources nor the people to realize such gains and even larger corporations need time to figure out how best to optimally utilize complex applications. 

Based on previous technological transformations such as the electricity, the automobile, the telephone and the personal computer, it may take another decade to realize noticeable results. JL

Steve Lohr reports in the New York Times:

Productivity, which is defined as the value of goods and services produced per hour of work, fell sharply in the first quarter this year. The growth in productivity since the pandemic hit now stands at 1% annually, in line with the meager rate since 2010 and far below 1996 to 2004. The leaders in AI are mainly large companies that have invested in digital technology for years and younger companies backed by venture capital. The limited uptake is not surprising given that 75% of American businesses are small, with fewer than 10 employees. It takes time for new technologies to spread and for people to figure how to best use them.

Is US Release of Russian Black Sea Intel Prep For NATO Ending Blockade?

A number of NATO countries have called for the alliance to take more aggressive steps to end the Russian naval blockade of Ukraine's Black Sea coast, an action which is contributing to world food insecurity. 

Release of US intelligence on the blockade may be part of an effort to prepare the public for more active measures to end the stalemate. JL 

Shane Harris reports in the Washington Post:

Newly declassified U.S. intelligence shows that a Russian naval blockade has halted maritime trade at Ukrainian ports, in what world leaders call a deliberate attack on the global food supply. “The Russian military has repeatedly blocked safe passage to and from Ukraine by closing the Kerch Strait, tightening its control over the Sea of Azov, stationing warships off Ukrainian ports. And Russia has struck Ukrainian ports multiple times.” Denmark plans to send Harpoon anti-ship missiles and a launcher to Ukraine, which could help pierce the blockade and get food exports flowing again.

How Ukraine Is Preparing Its Donbas Counter-Offensive

As reinforcements of troops and equipment like Javelin and Stugna missiles have flooded into Ukrainian units on the front, they are preparing counter-attacks against the increasingly depleted and demoralized Russians. 

The Ukrainian units recognize that artillery is the Russians only reliable weapon but that their own increasingly accurate and effective targeting is reducing Russia's advantage. JL 

Yaroslav Trofimov reports in the Wall Street Journal:

With Ukrainian reinforcements arriving and U.S.-supplied M777 howitzers providing long-range fire support from the rear, troops are preparing for a counterattack. Russia’s elite 4th Guards Kantemirovskaya Tank Division, with modern T-80 tanks, has tried for the past six weeks - and failed - to push past the Ukrainians who even destroyed Russian tanks by using a re-engineered commercial drone to drop mortar shells on them. “We are not passive, hiding and waiting for the enemy. We carry out offensive operations. The intensity of their operations has decreased. They don’t have enough men, (or) morale, and they keep losing armor they cannot replace. They are not idiots and they don’t want to die.”

Why Russia Is Sending 60 Year Old T-62 Tanks To Its Army In Ukraine

Battlefield losses against the Ukrainians appear to have exhausted Russia's inventory of modern tanks and sanctions have made it impossible to produce more. As a result, the Russian army is re-introducing the T-62, first fielded in 1961. 

Among the many logistics problems this creates (different ammunition and engines), the T-62 is especially vulnerable to anti-tank missiles. JL 

SofRep reports:

Amid massive tank losses in Ukraine, Putin is now deploying outdated Russian T-62 tanks, signaling that the Kremlin might have no modern tanks to send to Ukraine after their vehicles have been made into smoking heaps by the Ukrainians. T-62s were first introduced in 1961. They have different engines and use different main gun ammunition (which) means problems keeping them supplied and running. 90% of stored Russian tanks are non-functional and inoperable. By cannibalizing others, of the 2,000 units in storage they may be able to get 400 in working condition.

The Reason NATO Is Sending Ukraine Many More High Tech Weapons Systems

The nature of the battle now is based on artillery and raw power. 

Which is why NATO is sending more smart weapons systems to accurately target the Russians, who are having growing trouble replacing materiel and offset Russian quantity with NATO quality. JL 

Lolita Baldor reports in the AP:

The Czech Republic donated attack helicopters, tanks and rockets. Italy, Greece, Norway and Poland announced new donations Monday of artillery systems and ammunition. Denmark has agreed to send a harpoon launcher and missiles to Ukraine to help defend its coast. Ukrainian officials made clear their security needs. And those are consistent with what has been identified in recent weeks — long-range artillery and rocket systems, armored personnel carriers and drones. “The nature of the fight is really shaped by artillery in this phase.”

Ukraine Finding Thousands Of Abandoned Dead Russian Soldiers' Bodies

Despite Putin's claim that no one gets left behind, the bodies of thousands of dead Russian soldiers are in morgues or refrigerated storage cars on railroad sidings. 

Ukraine knows that's true because it has been forced to store the remains its citizens are finding dumped all over the country. JL

Sarah Rainsford reports in the BBC, image Andrii Marienko, AP:

Weeks after they failed to seize Ukraine's capital, the remains of Russian troops are still being discovered in and around the villages they passed through or occupied near the capital, Kyiv. But Ukraine says Russia shows little interest in getting them back. A refrigerated train in Kyiv is filling up, and there are more in other cities close to the fighting. For the Ukrainian military who recover and store the bodies, there is little sympathy: the dead are enemy invaders. But in Russia, someone, somewhere must be looking for each one of them.

Why In Uvalde TX and Buffalo NY Police On Scene Tried To Stop Killers But Failed

The victims at the school in Texas and at the supermarket in Buffalo did not have to wait for police to respond to the attacks: armed police were already there (in Buffalo, he was a retired cop working as a security guard). In both cases, they engaged the shooter and tried to stop him. But both shooters carried automatic rifles and wore body armor, allowing them to get past the defenders and then kill innocents. And, of course, the killers were both 18 year old males who bought their guns without any trouble.

Gun lovers and their political toadies will claim that more heavily armed guards are the answer, but experience suggests that attackers will just further escalate. JL

Josh Marshall reports in Talking Points Memo, image William Luther, San Antonio Express:

Cops didn’t arrive on the scene in response to the shooting. Three police officers exchanged gunfire with the shooter as he was trying to storm the school. So the shooter succeeded even though three armed police officers tried to stop him. This is similar to what happened in Buffalo. At that shooting a retired cop working as private security guard exchanged gunfire with the assailant during his rampage. When you combine high powered rifles and body armor, these guys are close to unstoppable. That’s not their only advantage. These shooters have all accepted that they’re likely going to die

What Is Causing Russia's Incredibly Shrinking Ukraine War Aims

Despite limited successes in the Donbas, where experts believed it had a distinct advantage due to more open terrain and shorter supply lines, Russia has failed to make much headway against Ukrainian forces and is rapidly exhausting its men and materiel. The consensus is that Russia's window of opportunity is closing fast.

The question now is what constitutes enough for Putin to declare whatever minor achievement he believes will salvage his damaged reputation. JL 

Josh Holder and colleagues report in the New York Times:

Russia's military has gained ground in Donbas. It has finally taken over Mariupol. But these victories aren’t enough for Russia to gain control of the Donbas, and its problems may only worsen as the war drags on.Without enlisting more troops, there is only so long that Russia can continue to push forward. The farther that Russian troops push, the longer their supply lines become and the more exposed they are to Ukrainian counterattacks, so Russia has to reposition troops to defend territory it has already won. Russia has a limited window. After that, the war could drift into a stalemate.

The Reason River Crossings Have Stymied Russia in Ukraine - And Why It Matters

Russia's failure in crossing rivers - truly spectacular several times - are the result of pressure to achieve unlikely successes with inadequate planning, resources and coordination - all emblematic of the army's Ukraine performance. 

But this matters strategically because Ukraine has a lot of rivers and if Russian can't figure out how to cross them, it can't win. JL 

Daniel Michaels reports in the Wall Street Journal:

Bridging a river under enemy fire is one of the toughest tasks any land force can face. Russia is offering the world lessons in how not to do it. (It) requires painstaking preparation, speed and a complex combination of land, water and air forces. Russian troops launched hasty attempts at a maneuver that requires careful planning, extensive resources and strict oversight. Russia’s string of failed crossings indicate problems higher in its chain of command and that senior leadership is pushing for gains troops are unprepared to achieve.

How Venture Capital Firms Are Navigating This Down Market

Valuations of software companies have been dropping for 7 months and are @60% below where they were. 

The time to begin prudent, realistic analysis of venture investment portfolios was months ago, but it is never too late to start quantifying the steps needed to stave off or reduce losses and failures. The lesson is that everything is on the table until clinical assessment reveals the optimal strategy. JL 

Justin Kahl and David George report in A16Z Future:

Public company software valuations have dropped from 12x forward revenue to 5x or less since highs in October 2021, representing a 60% decline. The same goes for fintech and consumer internet companies. A year ago, it was common to see funding valuations for late stage private companies100x of ARR (equivalent to run rate revenue). If you need to add $100M of ARR with $50M of burn, plan to make sure your burn multiple is less than 0.5x. Worst case, you may need to reduce opex, including headcount, for survival. Often, those that survive when the market turns are rewarded with increased market share and leaner, more efficient operations.

Russian Pilots Tape Commercial Garmin GPS To Dashboards Because Official Nav Systems 'Horrible'

During Russia's bombing campaign in Syria its air navigation system was reported to work poorly and commercial, Garmin-brand GPS were first seen on Russian jets. 

In Ukraine, the Russians' navigation problems were exacerbated first by Ukrainian hacking of their system and then, when Russia launched a rocket carrying a communications satellite to 'fix' the problem, it failed to operate properly, on top of the problems identified years earlier. "Can't find my way home..." Blind Faith, 1969. JL

SofRep reports:

A report found that Russian fighter planes were using rudimentary GPS receivers that were reportedly “taped to the dashboards” because their built-in navigation systems were simply horrible. “GPS receivers have been found taped to the dashboards of downed Russian Su-34s, so the pilots knew where they were, due to the poor quality of their own systems.” The Su-34 is Russia’s leading fighter aircraft. "Garmin GPSs were attached to the dashboard with a clamp. It was an ordinary tourist satellite navigator sold in any electronics store.”

Ukraine Kills 12th Russian General - A Pilot Flying For Mercenary Wagner Group

There are two unusual aspects to this story: first that a retired 63 year old major general was flying sorties over an active battle and second, that he was doing so not for the Russian Air Force, but for the Wagner Group mercenary organization. 

This confirms Russian shortages of trained personnel and that in order to recruit them, it is using Wagner to hire retired or foreign fighters it has to pay more in order to get them to do so. His plane was shot down by Ukrainian troops. JL
 

Multiple sources, including Ukraine Ministry of Defense:

Ukrainian paratroopers have shot down a plane piloted by a Russian general over the Luhansk region. The deceased Russian is Kanamat Khuseevich Botashev – Major General of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, born in 1959. Botashev was dismissed from the army in 2013, a defendant in a criminal case. He was accused of destroying a Su-27 fighter aircraft (while joyriding). Botyshev was engaged as a mercenary at the Wagner Group. Wagner reported on May 10 that it had its own jet aircraft, and aircraft have appeared over Popasna with markings unconventional for the Russian Air Force. A 63-year-old retired major general at the helm of a Su-25 jet aircraft is surprising.

How E-Bikes Are Sparking Significantly Greater Bikesharing In New York

Bike sharing has been growing in New York, but the introduction of e-bikes has accelerated usage. 

The pandemic created concerns about public transportation and increased bicycle ridership but sturdier new models with greater range has stimulated use above predictions. Analysts believe this may be a precursor to even higher usage rates in cities across the US. JL 

John Surico reports in Bloomberg CityLab, image Shaye Weaver, TimeOut New York:

New York City's Citi Bike is the largest bikeshare system outside of China. It’s 5,000-strong electric fleet made up 32% of the 28 million rides taken in 2021, even though they only make up 20% of the fleet. They’re used three times more often per day compared to classics. The Covid-19 crisis helped transform the public’s perception of the average e-bike courier, turning riders into frontline workers. Capped at 20 miles per hour, a new e-bike can go 60 miles before needing a charge, twice the previous model.

The Reason NATO Artillery Offers Ukraine A Strategic Advantage

Russia is running short of troops, tanks and other military vehicles, but it has always been an artillery-heavy army - and that is what they are using in Donbas in an attempt to wear down the Ukrainians. 

But the artillery donated by NATO countries offsets Russia's numerical advantages because it has longer range and is more accurate, enabling the targeting of weapons systems aimed both at Ukraine's troops and civilian population. Experts believe that shift could be decisive in deciding the war's outcome. JL 

Andrew Kramer and Maria Varenikova report in the New York Times:

The new, longer-ranged Western artillery are the most powerful and destructive being provided by NATO countries. They fire three miles farther than the most common artillery used by the Russian army - and 10 miles farther if shooting a precision, GPS-guided projectile. The American M777 (will) have the greatest effect for the quantity of guns provided, providing accurate, long-range fire. The purpose of the guns is to grind down Russian military infrastructure, ammunition depots and command posts. (They) also save civilian lives by striking Russian artillery firing on towns. Their arrival has buoyed Ukraine’s hopes of achieving artillery superiority, a key toward military victory.

After 3 Months of War, Life In Russia Has Changed Profoundly For the Worse

Signs of economic deterioration are growing. Though the ruble has stabilized due to government intervention, the impact of loss of incomes, unavailability of spare parts and global isolation are expected to rise significantly in the next few months.  

The Associated Press reports:

Three months after the Feb. 24 invasion,  Russians are reeling from  blows to their livelihoods. Moscow’s shopping malls have turned into expanses of shuttered storefronts. The psychological cost of the repressions, restrictions and shrinking opportunities could be high. Although some public opinion polls suggest support for the Ukraine war is strong, the results are skewed by respondents wary of expressing their genuine views. “We see deterioration in the economy across sectors. Companies are running out of inventories. A lot of companies put their workers on part time and are warning they have to shut down entirely. There’s a real fear that unemployment will rise during the summer, that there will be a big drop in consumption, retail sales and investment.”

Why Decisively Defeating Putin Is the Only Way To Achieve Peace In Ukraine

Those talking about an 'off-ramp' - as if a war which has been characterized by countless war crimes, including the torture, rape and random murder of civilians as well as deportations of children torn from their parents and sent to unknown fates in Russia, can be compared to pulling off the highway for a Coke and a hamburger - are delusional. 

Putin shows no signs of wanting to end the war and has made it manifestly clear that he has nothing but contempt for the niceties of diplomatic agreements. His word is most emphatically not his bond. Only his defeat and removal will end Russia's century of global aggression. And the sooner the better. JL

Anne Applebaum reports in The Atlantic:

Yet another frozen conflict, yet another temporary holding pattern, yet another face-saving compromise will not end the pattern of Russian aggression or bring permanent peace. Only failure can persuade the Russians themselves to question the sense and purpose of a colonial ideology that has repeatedly impoverished and ruined their own economy and society, as well as those of their neighbors, for decades. Defeat, sidelining, or removal of Putin is the only outcome that offers any long-term stability in Ukraine and the rest of Europe.

One of Russia's Most Advanced New Tanks Destroyed in Ukraine

Battleships, fighter jets and now Russia's most advanced operational tank have all been destroyed by the Ukrainian military wielding smaller, nimbler weapons. 

Not what experts predicted, but arguably a portent of things to come. JL 

Joseph Trevithick and colleagues report in The Drive:

A Russian T-90M Proryv-3 (Breakthrough-3) - a modern and rare main battle tank - has been destroyed on the battlefield by Ukrainian forces. The image, dated May 4, shows what appears to be the remnants of a T-90M tank, still smoldering after a direct hit within Ukraine’s northeastern Kharkiv Oblast. Evidence that Russia may have committed some of its limited supply of T-90M tanks to the conflict began to surface in April. Upgrades don't seem to have helped the T-90M in question, which stands as the first confirmed loss of the tank.

Amid Massive Ukraine Losses, Russia Opens Army Recruiting To Men Over 40

War is generally for the young, but Russia is now recruiting men over the age of 40 (and foreigners over 30) because the country's demographic trends have limited the number of young men available while its army's poor performance and disastrous casualties have kept others from volunteering. 

Why Russia thinks it will be more successful enticing middle aged men than teens and 20s has not been explained. JL 

SofRep reports:

Amid rising casualties in Ukraine, Russia is now considering allowing Russians over the age of 40 and foreigners over the age of 30 to join the Russian military service. Russia utilizes conscription (but) the Russian conscription system is known to be one of the most corrupt in the world and is easy to surpass with the right amount of money and (connections). Even if they were successful in recruiting more conscripts, one of the reasons the Russians have been unsuccessful is that Russian conscripts had little useful combat training when they got sent to Ukraine.

Turns Out Cryptocurrencies Are Less Like Gold, More Like Risky Tech Stocks

The good news for fanatical crypto investors was that traditional money managers got interested. But that was also the bad news. 

The market is less skewed to fanboys and more to professionals with a broader market perspective whose commitment is less emotional and more risk management-oriented, meaning that crypto has lost much of its value as a 'special' asset. JL 

David Yaffe-Bellany reports in the New York Times:

Traders are increasingly treating the cryptocurrency like just another speculative tech investment. Since the start of this year, Bitcoin’s price has closely mirrored that of the Nasdaq, heavily weighted toward technology stocks. As Bitcoin’s price dropped more than 25% over the last month, to less than half its November peak, the plunge came in near lock step with a broader collapse of tech stocks. Professional traders are treating the cryptocurrency as part of a portfolio of high-risk tech investments (so) are less ideologically committed to Bitcoin’s potential. When they lose faith in the tech industry, that affects their Bitcoin trades.

Do Ukraine's Successes Vs Russia Mean End of 20th Century Warfare 'Platforms' ?

Probably. 

Just like the civilian technologies that have transformed contemporary socio-economic life, the weapons that have given Ukraine the edge in its existential battle against Russian invasion are portable, smart and precise. Which may mean that the 20th century 'platforms' like aircraft carriers, fighter planes and road-bound tank armies, if not entirely obsolete, will be less effective in the future. JL 

Elliot Ackerman reports in The Atlantic:

An army built around tanks, a navy built around ships, and an air force built around planes, all of which are technologically advanced and astronomically expensive is platform-centric. So far, in Ukraine, the signature land weapon hasn’t been a tank but an anti-tank missile. The signature air weapon hasn’t been an aircraft, but an anti-air missile. And as the sinking of the Moskva showed, the signature maritime weapon hasn’t been a ship but an anti-ship missile. “We must acknowledge the impact of proliferated precision long-range  smart weapons."

Why Russia's Capacity To Continue Its Offensive Has Reached High Water Mark

Russian losses of troops and weaponry are unsustainable. Sanctions and growing public recognition of the failure make replacement at scale unlikely. Leadership has failed to adapt sufficiently to the reality on the ground. 

A default missile-heavy defense may yield some minor successes but not enough to be strategically significant, while holding captured Ukrainian areas may turn this into Putin's Afghanistan as partisan guerilla attacks and the need for vast numbers of occupation troops sap Russian strength and will. JL 

Mick Ryan reports in War In the Future:

It is likely the Russian capacity to continue offensive operations in Ukraine is reaching its high-water mark. The Ukrainians have corroded the physical, moral and intellectual capacity of the Russian military in Ukraine. Too many Russian combat units are being frittered away, and too many of their soldiers and leaders lack the will to give their ‘last full measure’ for an institution that can’t even feed them properly. They no longer have the initiative.The Russian high command will continue to demand advances, but in the next month or two, any capacity of the Russians to do so will be at an end.

How Leaders Are Overcoming the Biggest Challenges of the Hybrid Workplace

The 250% investment increase in workplace applications in the past year is not going to solve all problems. 

Many of the challenges leaders face in effectively managing the hybrid workplace involve intangibles like trust, expectations and organizational design. The leadership strategies that appear to be most successful in optimizing outcomes require flexibility, adaptability, frequent communication and, most importantly, customizing solutions to the individuals and teams actually doing the work. JL  

Elizabeth Seay reports in the Wall Street Journal, image Autonomous.ai:

The most effective approach to making hybrid work is one that takes the employee, the work and the team into account, and customizes solutions that give priority to the work itself rather than a corporate desire for uniformity. Hybrid is more efficient when the policy is a meaningful reflection of the work people actually do. Challenges (include): leaders declaring “hybrid,” while signaling bias for in-person work; creating intrinsic motivation; maintaining work relationships; rethinking organizational function; inflexibility; unclear performance expectations. Organizations should be explicit about  unwritten rules, as it’s more difficult to inculcate a corporate culture in a hybrid environment.

Polish Tanks, Dutch APCs Constitute New Ukraine Armored Brigade

Ukraine has 'stood up' in military parlance a new tank brigade armed with upgraded Polish tanks and Dutch armored personnel carriers. 

The number of new tanks and APCs provide the equivalent of ten Russian battalion tactical groups, suggesting that NATO weaponry could make a big difference on the battlefield, especially when Ukrainian morale and training are factored. JL 

Daily Kos reports:

The Ukraine Army deployed a new tank brigade due to the supply of weapons from westeran countries. The 5th Tank Brigade was deployed from reserve to full-fledged. Recent pictures have shown  Polish tanks with updated armor and optics. The YPR-765 is a modified M-113 armored personnel carrier. The Dutch had 500 decommissioned in deep storage since 2012. M113s, and its Dutch variant, won’t protect against direct tank or heavy cannon fire, but it’ll do nicely against artillery shrapnel. 100 tanks and 400-500 YPR-765s would be the equivalent of 10 Russian full-strength battalion tactical groups

Why the US Arming Ukraine With Anti-Ship Missiles Has Geopolitical Significance

Anti-ship missiles with a range of over 100km would put every Russian ship in the Black Sea within targeting range. 

The intention is the lifting of the naval blockade which is keeping Ukraine from exporting its grain to the world markets where it is needed and where its absence is contributing to inflation. The military presumption is that Russia would lose bargaining leverage with the introduction of these weapons and the blockade would no longer be effective. JL 

Mike Stone reports in Reuters:

The White House is working to put advanced anti-ship missiles in the hands of Ukrainian fighters to help defeat Russia's naval blockade. Missiles could push the Russian navy away from its Black Sea ports, allowing the restart of shipments of grain and other agricultural products worldwide. About 20 Russian Navy vessels, including submarines, are in the Black Sea operational zone. Anti-ship missiles like the Harpoon with ranges over 100 km would be enough to threaten Russian ships and could convince Moscow to lift the blockade. "If Putin persists, Ukraine could take out the largest Russian ships."

How Ukrainians Are Waging Brutal Guerilla War vs Russian Occupiers

In scenes reminiscent of the movie Dr. Zhivago about the 1917-1920 Russian Revolution, Ukrainian partisans operating in Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine are attacking Russian soldiers and officers, blowing up armored trains and destroying fuel and ammunition depots. 

In what is increasingly a war of attrition, the question is not just what territory Russia can conquer, but what can it realistically hold against a numerically superior and effective Ukrainian resistance. JL 

Zoe Strozewski reports in Newsweek:

Guerrillas in Melitopol and Kherson "eliminated high-ranking Russian servicemen." Ukrainians blew up a Russian armored train that they said was carrying personnel in the occupied city of Melitopol. The armored train attack and the deaths of Russian servicemen would be some of the newest indications of the Ukrainian counteroffensive's progress. "Melitopol partisans together with Ukrainian special services carried out a remote detonation of an armored train of the Russian occupiers."

Data Reveal All Those So-Called Quitters Are Working - At Better Paying Jobs

Despite grousing about quitters, the reality is that the vast majority - almost one to one - were actually swapping old jobs for new ones that pay higher salaries and offer better hours. 

Which is a lesson employers need to learn. JL 

Emma Goldberg reports in the New York Times, image L Form:

Many of last year’s job quitters are actually job swappers, according to data which shows a one-to-one correlation between the rate of quitting and swapping. What workers realized is that they could find better ways to earn a living. Higher pay. Stable hours. Flexibility. They expected more from their employers, and appear to be getting it. When workers switched jobs, they often increased their pay. Wages grew nearly 10% in leisure and hospitality over the last year, and more than 7% in retail. Workers were also able to increase their shift hours

Why Russia Is Unlikely To Win In Ukraine Despite New Tactics, Equipment

There are tangible and intangible reasons why Russia is unlikely to achieve its goals in Ukraine, as it is increasingly clear Russian losses are not sustainable. 

Tangibly, NATO supplies of modern, highly effective weaponry has offset early Russian advantages. And Russia cannot replace what it has lost due to sanctions. Ukraine also has a larger reservoir of eager recruits and volunteers than does Russia, and the Ukrainian intangibles in terms of morale, training and leadership are far superior as results have demonstrated. JL 

Dan LaMothe and colleagues report in the Washington Post, image Bernat Armangue, AP:

Russia is losing in Ukraine militarily, politically and morally. President Vladimir Putin has narrowed his objectives in a campaign viewed as unsustainable, unrealistic and unwinnable. Russian troops have been bedeviled both by their own tactical blunders and the Ukrainian’s potent capabilities. Russia’s battlefield gains remain “uneven” and “incremental." Several of its high-ranking commanders have been sacked. Sanctions against Russia have caused the country’s transport and shipping logistics to be “practically broken,” Russia’s transport minister said. “The losses in Russian manpower and equipment are not sustainable."

1-800-SURRENDER: Ukraine Opens Hotline For Russian Troops Wishing to Give Up

Press one if you want to surrender by yourself. Press two if your entire battalion wants to surrender. Press three if you want to call in an airstrike on your commanding officer...JL 

Kyiv Independent reports:

After intercepting phone calls from soldiers conscripted by Russia in the Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine wh compare their service to “slavery” and ask for help, Ukraine’s State Security Service launched the “2024” hotline for the Russian army’s soldiers willing to surrender.

Russia has lost 29,050 troops in Ukraine since Feb. 24.