3 More Russian Colonels Killed By Ukraine Signals Russian Army Desperate To Please Putin

It is increasingly apparent to analysts - and to Russian army officers - that success in taking Severodonetsk is more important to Putin than their lives or those of their troops. 

The 'rock or hard place' choice is either attacking - and possibly dying - or being replaced, which also carries the risk of demotion, imprisonment and/or loss of employment. JL 

SofRep reports:

It is no surprise that there has been an increased number of dead Russian generals and high-ranking military officers in the past week. These deaths mark the 50th, 51st, and 52nd Russian Colonels to be killed in Ukraine since the invasion. As Russia struggles to take the entirety of Severdonetsk, where the majority of the fighting had been taking place in the east, more and more officers are sent out to the frontlines to try and command their forces themselves. “Brigade and battalion commanders deploy forwards because they are held to an uncompromising level of responsibility for their units’ performance."

Russia Offers Its Passport In Occupied Kherson, But Only 23 Ukrainians Accept

Not exactly the massive endorsement of occupation for which the Russians were hoping. JL 

Timothy Bella reports in the Washington Post:

Only 23 Ukrainian citizens in the Russian-controlled city of Kherson have accepted Russian passports. The distribution of Russian passports has been going on throughout the invasion; the acceptance of the documents is seen as one way to justify the invasion. Russian occupiers also handed out the first passports in the Russian-controlled city of Melitopol. Russia did not say how many people in the southeastern city accepted (since that city is known to be a center of Ukrainian partisan resistance activity).

Why Brutal Eastern Battles Reinforce Ukrainian Soldiers' Grim Endurance

They understand that the alternative - surrendering to Russia - means torture, rape, economic privation and probably death. JL

Carlotta Gall reports in the New York Times:

Ukrainian soldiers are facing perhaps the most grueling weeks and months of the war as they try to stem, and survive, the Russian onslaught. The Russians have much greater firepower. (Their) planes drop (illegal) cluster bombs and white phosphorus. Those who survive a close call said it inspired a greater determination. They are aware of the mounting casualties, but (know) the Russians are losing men, too. "Everyone feels the same - we must be there, we must fight and we must win.”

How AI May Boost Sports Performance, Predict and Avoid Injuries

AI and data science are enabling athletes - from highly paid professionals to weekend duffers - to perform at a higher level longer, with less risk of injury. 

"They are treating their bodies like a business and better managing themselves." JL  

Eric Niiler reports in the Wall Street Journal:

Elite athletes are betting on new technologies that combine artificial intelligence with video to predict injuries before they happen and provide highly tailored prescriptions for workouts and practice drills to reduce the risk of getting hurt. Ultra-high-resolution video feeds and camera-carrying drones track how individual players’ joints flex during a game, how high they jump or fast they run—and, using AI, precisely identify athletes’ risk of injury in real time. "Athletes are treating their body like a business, and they’ve started to leverage data and information to better manage themselves. “We will see more athletes playing far longer and playing at the highest level far longer.”

Why Russian Army Failed To Take Severodonetsk By Putin's June 10 Deadline

Most mainstream US news coverage appears to suggest that Ukraine is running out of troops and ammunition around the embattled Donbas city of Severodonetsk, now reduced to rubble in traditional Russian military offensive manner. Putin reportedly demanded the city's surrender by June 10th, indicating he expected that to happen. 

But as of June 11th, Severodonetsk is still a contested battlefield and there is evidence that Ukrainian counterbattery fire is having as deleterious an effect on the Russian artillery as the Russians are reportedly having on Ukraine's forces. All of which is a reminder that both sides are fully engaged in information warfare which may cloud actual results on the ground. JL

Mark Sumner reports in Daily Kos:

Whatever June 10 means to Vladimir Putin, it’s time to recalibrate, because on that date, Ukraine shows no sign of going away. On June 6, as Russia pushed back against the counteroffensive, locations in Lysychansk were getting pounded by Russian artillery on the far side of Severodonetsk. But day by day, the numbers of shots falling on the Ukrainian side of the river from guns around Severodonetsk seems to be declining. On Thursday, most of the fire around Severodonetsk was on the north side of the city, the area where Russian forces are positioned. All of this indicates that (in) the artillery battle going on around Severodonetsk, Ukraine is winning.

Entire Russian Motorized Infantry Unit Refuses Further Fighting After Heavy Losses

An entire motorized rifle infantry brigade (troops that usually ride in armored personnel carriers in support of tank units) has mutinied and refused orders to return to battle after suffering heavy losses in the Kharkiv area. 

The unit that mutinied is believed to be comprised primarily of militia and civilians forcibly impressed into the Russian army from among the population of Russian-occupied Donetsk and Luhansk, regions which were taken from Ukraine by Russia in 2014. That the troops are not Russian contract soldiers or conscripts but Russian-supporting Ukrainians who did not volunteer but were forced into service makes the mutiny less surprising, but no less worrisome a morale and force readiness indicator for Russian leadership. JL

Anastasiia Kalatur reports in Ukrayinska Pravda:

Personnel of a motor rifle brigade from the 1st Army Corps of the Russian Armed Forces has refused to continue to take part in the war in Ukraine after suffering losses during fighting with the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Kharkiv Oblast. There have been reports of units comprised of forcibly mobilised residents of the temporarily occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts refusing to take part in hostilities.

Russian Army Dog, Caught In Crossfire, Defects To Ukraine

Intelligent choice. JL 

Robyn White reports in Newsweek:

A Russian army dog that got caught in a crossfire, a Belgian Shepherd now named Max, used to belong to Russian forces, who had a base in Mykolayiv. Ukrainian forces regained control of the area, and, in doing so, destroyed a Russian military base where Max was living. Max was found wandering around the village alone, wearing a Russian collar. Soldiers of the 19th Regiment of Ukraine's National Guard have taken him in as their own. Belgian Shepherds are often chosen to become working army dogs as they are strong, highly intelligent species that can follow strict commands. They are often trained to sniff out explosive devices as well as carry out search and rescue

Experiences In Ukraine Causing Russian Soldiers To Refuse Redeployment

Poor leadership, bad equipment, callous disregard for casualties and soldiers' well-being have led many contract soldiers to refuse to return the frontlines in Ukraine. 

While that may be unsurprising given the beating the Russians took early in the war, what is more interesting is that few if any are being prosecuted or punished, bother because of corruption and because Putin does not want to alienate a population that has otherwise been supportive. The result is that Russian forces are increasingly understaffed and rely almost exclusively on artillery and rockets but are unable to hold ground from which Ukraine has retreated. JL 

Olesya Gerasimenko and Katerina Khinkulova report in the BBC:

Russian media have also been reporting hundreds of cases of soldiers refusing repeat deployments to Ukraine since the beginning of April. There was a clear lack of strategy: Reinforcements failed to arrive and soldiers were poorly equipped for the task of taking a city. "I thought we were the Russian army, the most super-duper in the world." Instead they were expected to operate without even basic equipment. "I'm shocked by our army." Army commanders try to intimidate contract soldiers into staying with their units, but Russian military law allows soldiers to refuse to fight if they don't want to. Activists (are) not aware of any prosecutions of those refusing to return to the front.

The Reason Congress' Jan 6 Hearings May Have Greater Impact Than Expected

This is not your typical Congressional hearing with bloviating politicians attempting to hog the spotlight. It is a sophisticated, psychologically riveting and professionally produced made for TV and internet show. It's goal is to grab the public's attention, provide lots of snippets effectively edited for retweeting and posting - and designed to demonstrate that this was a shocking violation of American norms, replete with juicy interpersonal story lines. 

It is, in the parlance of the digital marketing which so dominates American life, intended force audience engagement. And as this society has demonstrated for two decades now, it works extremely well. JL

Amber Phillips reports in the Washington Post, image Shay Horse, AP:

The committee opened by seeking to jolt the American public back to that violent day with never-before-seen footage of the attackers marching up to the Capitol. The first hearing was objectively riveting, weaving together startling footage of that day - including congressional staffers running for their lives as attackers breached the Capitol - with live testimony (such as) Ivanka Trump testifying that she accepted the Justice Department’s assessment that the election wasn’t stolen, from Trump(And) the committee holds Trump responsible for the attack.

Why Putin's Ukraine War Is Accelerating Global Turn Away From Gas and Oil

Rather than making the world more dependent on oil and gas - Russia's primary source of revenue - Putin's invasion of Ukraine is forcing the global economy to actively seek alternatives.  

This is due to exorbitant prices and the realization that no socio-economic system wants or can afford to be held hostage by the dictators who control much of the world's supply. JL 

Thomas Friedman reports in the New York Times:

If we have a year or two of astronomical gasoline and heating oil prices because of the Ukraine war, “you are going to see a massive shift in investment by mutual funds and industry into electric vehicles, grid enhancements, transmission lines and long-duration storage that could tip the whole market away from reliance on fossil fuels toward renewables.” This war might inadvertently, over time, shrink Putin’s primary source of money and power.

How Calculated Strategy Drives Ukraine's Continued Fight For Severodonetsk

The goal is to use the battle at Severodonetsk as a means of degrading Russian military capability. 

However much the Ukrainian military is suffering, the Russians are suffering more because they have fewer soldiers and weapons with which to replace those lost. This is an emotional rather than strategic battle for Putin, who desperately seeks a win, and emotion is not generally a useful source of good decision-making. JL 

Daily Kos reports:

Isolated and exposed in a deep salient, on the wrong side of a river, Severodonetsk has zero value to Ukraine’s ultimate war aims. “Ukrainian forces are conducting a flexible defense of Severodonetsk and are focusing on inflicting high casualties on Russian personnel rather than seeking to hold the city.” Holding the city is of little military value … unless Russia mangles its assault to the point that allows Ukraine to inflict a disproportionate amount of damage to the Russian invaders. As long as the city resists, Ukraine locks up an inordinate amount of Russia’s combat power far from other key fronts. In Kherson and Kharkiv, it’s thinning out Russian forces (which) makes Ukrainian gains possible.

Russian Soldiers in Ukraine: Psycho-Social and Economic Portrait

They are mostly poorly educated, from Russia's most poverty-stricken regions. A significant number are ethnic minorities. 

But instead of being whipped into shape by a disciplined professional officer corps, whatever values they share tend to be of the 'get what you can' variety, reinforced by their officers, which explains the pillaging, rape, brutality and murder. Russia's recent tactical successes have more to do with its indiscriminate use of artillery in place of these cadres than because they have learned anything. Their performance and behavior reflects their upbringing and treatment - and will continue to do so. JL 

Igor Kossov reports in The Kyiv Independent:

Many of the soldiers are poor and badly educated, growing up without modern amenities. Many joined the armed forces because they have no future in their towns. Soldiers’ choice of loot showed that they hadn’t been exposed to expensive things The majority have bad training, low morale and no faith in their poorly-maintained equipment and their callous or incompetent officers. The regions (from which most come) are along Russia’s southern border, as well as its eastern reaches and predominantly home to ethnic minorities. The regions with the most casualties also have the lowest GDP in Russia. This has resulted in aggressive and dehumanized behavior.

Ukraine Decimates Russian Guards Air Assault Reg't In 14 Hour Donbas Battle

The significance of this is that Ukrainian forces are continuing to stymie Russian advances around Severodonetsk, especially when even elite Russian formations continue to use main roads for their primary attack routes, the tactics that failed them around Kyiv. JL

SofRep reports:

The battle happened somewhere near Severodonetsk. It appears the Ukrainians were expecting the attacks, and when the Russians broke cover to assault, Ukraine was ready. The Russians were advancing via a highway, which leaves them vulnerable to an airborne attack and artillery shelling. The commander of the assault battalion of the 104th Guards Airborne Assault Regiment, Lieutenant Colonel Alexander Dosyagaev, had been killed a week prior. Ukrainian paratroopers from Lviv fought the Russians with NLAW anti-tank weapons to destroy 50 men of the 76th Pskov Air Assault division.

Initial Drone Warfare Lessons From Ukraine

Experts are warning against drawing the wrong conclusions from drone use in the Ukraine war so far. The reason is that Russia has been so relatively incompetent that its performance should not be used as a benchmark. 

That said, Ukraine has been strategically and tactically creative in its use of drones, both large and small. The result is that the concept of air superiority forged 80 years ago in WWII now has to be rethought. JL 

Zachary Kallenborn reports in Modern War Institute:

Soldiers who have not experienced drone warfare may discount the threat it poses. Analysis (from Ukraine) suggests critical differences between defending static and mobile assets. Nations should think about how they deploy and use drones to exploit those vulnerabilities. Wolf pack tactics developed for submarines in World War II might prove useful. Air superiority concepts need to be adjusted: drones offer cheap access to airpower. Ukraine’s drone successes may just be Russian failures. It’s failure to adequately counter Ukrainian drones may just be one more error. Perhaps a better-prepared military would not have the same drone problem.

The Reason White Covid Deaths Has Exceeded Blacks, Hispanics For Past Year

More blacks and Hispanics have been vaccinated in the past year than whites. And most of the unvaccinated whites are older, making them more vulnerable. The root cause of their anti-vax attitude remains ideological, driven by political influences. JL

David Leonhardt reports in the New York Times:

Over the past year, the Covid death rate for white Americans has been 14% higher than the rate for Black Americans and 72% higher than the Latino rate. During Covid’s early months in the U.S., the per capita death rate for Black Americans was twice as high as the white rate and as the Asian rate. The Latino death rate was in between. Vaccination among Black and Latino Americans since last year is higher than it is for whites. The main culprit is politics. Only 60% of Republicans are vaccinated, compared with 75% of independents and 90% of Democrats. And Republicans are both disproportionately white and older.

How NATO Is Using Sanctions To Degrade Russia's Tech Capabilities

After the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, the US and NATO allies relaxed restrictions on technological imports to Russia. And Russia became dependent on them, realizing that even after China's economic advances, its technology was simply not as good. 

With the sanctions imposed after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the west is once again degrading Russia's technological capabilities and future development - and the consequences are expected to be felt by that country for the long term. JL 

Robert Farley reports in 19fortyfive:

After Russia began its invasion of Ukraine, the US and other countries established the most aggressive technological sanctions in history against Moscow. Beginning in 1945, the United States engaged in a decades-long effort to restrict the Soviet Union’s access to advanced military and civilian technologies. Soviet science and engineering were held back. Western technology pulled ahead of Soviet equivalents. Captured and destroyed Russian weaponry in Ukraine has (now) demonstrated that Russian equipment is dependent on computer chips produced in the West. Russia sourced its chips from the West and not from China for reasons; Chinese technology simply isn’t as competitive.

Ukraine Draws Putin Into Battle of Attrition That Russian Forces Cannot Sustain

What remains of the full weight of what was once regarded as the second most powerful military in the world has been unable to dislodge Ukrainian forces from Severodonetsk. This even as the Ukrainians train to integrate new NATO weaponry not yet fully engaged. 

A sign of the Russians desperation in Severodonetsk, far to the north of the Black Sea, can be seen in the types of munitions they are using, including long range anti-ship missiles designed for use against US aircraft carriers. They are throwing literally everything they have into the battle. JL 

Dan Parsons reports in The Drive, image War In the Future:

Ukrainian lines have held around the eastern city of Severodonetsk through more than 24 hours of sustained attack from three sides, forcing a stalemate. Visually-confirmed Russian military vehicles and heavy weaponry destroyed in Ukraine since the invasion hit 2,500 on June 8. Ukrainian forces achieved some success by counter-attacking in the Kherson region, including regaining a foothold. Russian advances in the region stalled in the face of Ukrainian defenses. Ukrainian forces have counterattacked there, near the strategically important port city of Mykolaiv. A Russian long-range anti-ship missile, designed for use against U.S. aircraft carriers, was pulled from a farm field.

Why Humiliation Is the Price Russia Must Pay For Its Brutality In Ukraine

Like Hitler, Putin has repeatedly offered short term 'solutions' whose terms he abrogates as soon as it is convenient for him to do so. 

This is an epochal battle between democratic values and the cruelty of dictatorships, amply demonstrated by Russian forces in Ukraine. If Putin and Russia are humiliated, than that is the price they pay for initiating this conflict - and the cost civilized society must impose to deter potential future aggressors. JL 

Mick Ryan reports in War In the Future:

The 21st century is seeing a return to the ideological competition that characterized the Cold War. We are engaged in a long term struggle to protect our sovereignty & preserve our values. We must demonstrate the long term capacity and patience to confront and deter those who seek to coerce or attack us. France's strategically bankrupt, selfish and impatient approach will only encourage future aggression. The Ukrainians have fought for the right to determine how this war ends. We must give them time to retake all their territory and inflict a military defeat on Russia. If that also humiliates Russia, that is the price they must pay for their brutality, destruction and unwarranted aggression.

Putin Fires Five Generals Even After Another One Is Killed

There is a question as to whether Putin is running out of generals to blame for his strategic miscalculations in Ukraine. JL 

Cheryl Teh reports in Business Insider:

Russian President Vladimir Putin fired five generals from the military's top brass this week amid Moscow's stumbling invasion of Ukraine. The Russian newspaper Pravda cited an extract of a decree that a source confirmed to be authentic. The decree listed five major generals — Vasily Kukushkin, Alexander Laas, Andrey Lipilin, Alexander Udovenko, and Yuri Instrankin — as well as police colonel Emil Musin. Another Russian General, Roman Berdnikov, was also killed in Ukraine.

Moscow Relying On Local Militia In Donbas To Spare Scarce Russian Troops

Literal cannon fodder. JL 

Paul Shinkman reports in US News and World Report, image The Guardian:

The Kremlin is relying on poorly trained, ill-equipped Ukrainians who support Russia to carry out some of the most deadly fighting in its current campaign in an attempt to spare the lives of its own forces. The (people) Russia mobilized for this are the Separatist Forces of the self-declared Luhansk People’s Republic. (This) mobilization compares to prior Russian attempts in other conflict zones to defer battlefield casualties onto proxy forces, such as with a reserve corps of Syrian soldiers. “The Russian military has concentrated all of its available resources on this single battle to make only modest gains.”

Russia's Rickety Heathcare System Overwhelmed by Soldiers Wounded In Ukraine

Many Russian doctors were ordered to schedule secret 'business trips' to cities near the Ukraine border as the invasion began, but they quickly became overwhelmed by the unexpectedly large number of seriously wounded soldiers. 

Now, hospitals throughout western Russia are suffering from shortages of doctors, nurses, technicians and medical supplies as the growing numbers of wounded overcrowd what was already an underfunded and understaffed system. JL  

Sofrep reports:

Amid high losses from the Russian side due to its military performance in Ukraine, the Russian healthcare system is overwhelmed by a large number of wounded soldiers from the front. Hospitals in Moscow and other cities in Russia are scrambling to hire more medical professionals and recruit more volunteer medical workers. One city’s demand for doctors increasing by 253%. Russian field hospitals have a critically low amount of medicine and employees. Russian civilians are providing much-needed medical supplies garnered from crowdfunding for basic medical needs.

The Azov Battalion, Defenders of Mariupol, Rebuild and Rearm For Next Battle

After losing so many of their soldiers in the siege and ultimate surrender of Mariupol, the Azov battalion of Ukrainian volunteers is reconstituting itself, again, as an elite force. 

The battalion is distinguished, among other factors, by the large number of professionals - lawyers, musicians, business owners - in its ranks. They are looking to avenge their brethren in Mariupol. JL 

Vivian Salama and Matthew Luxmoore report in the Wall Street Journal:

Azov fighters who joined the regiment after the Russian invasion come from all walks of life (including) piano teachers, professional musicians, owner of a Kyiv-based store that sells vegan pet food and many lawyers. Many chose Azov over other regiments because it offered a quick path to the battlefield and its reputation as an elite fighting force. After their hard-fought but losing battle against Moscow’s forces in the port city of Mariupol, the men training are determined to retake the lost ground and expel the Russians.

Why Ukraine Retains the Advantage In Donbas Artillery Slugfest

The Russian army is using its advantage in artillery and air power inefficiently because its ground forces are both so decimated, ill-equipped and poorly led that they are incapable of following up. 

Ukraine has intelligently used its knowledge of the terrain and its technological sophistication to target Russian forces with increasing accuracy and impact. In a war of attrition, intangibles like accuracy, leadership, intelligence and morale will win. JL 

Mark Hertling reports in Twitter:

The Donbas fight is a slugfest, with RU using artillery to set conditions they can't follow up on. UKR is smartly using limited forces and precise targeting. They are using ever-increasing & PRECISE counter-fire, drones, and air attack (very different than RU). UKR leadership, incorporation of battlefield intel, & mission focus is good. What's important, Ukraine's strategy & operational goals have not changed: Defend the country/culture/people, regain territorial integrity. RU strategic goals & operational objectives have changed significantly & that confuses commanders and troops on the ground. The RU army that continues to use imprecise artillery & indiscriminate air attacks.

Will the Tech Crash Draw Talent To Big Cos, Away From Venture-Backed Firms?

The market for tech talent has not shrunk as much as the equity markets. People with the right skills are still in high demand - and remote or hybrid work has made it easier for both firms and employees to make arrangements closer to what they want. 

The difference may be that those more inclined to seek security - such as slightly older employees with families - are likely to find the relative stability of big tech if not comforting, at least less anxiety-producing. But those still wanting to make a difference are likely to still find startups more attractive. JL 

Christopher Mims reports in the Wall Street Journal, image Smunch:

The downturn doesn’t mean demand is evaporating. Demand for workers with the right skills has been so high that laid-off workers are likely to land on their feet, as disaffected ones vote with theirs. Postings for software developers were 125% higher when compared with a prepandemic baseline figure. (But) the giants offer safe ports for workers seeking shelter from the storm. The ability to work and hire anywhere could reinforce the flight toward the relative safety of big tech companies, (though) remote work can push employees away from big tech companies as well as toward them. Talented engineers are still entertaining multiple offers, and seek to have an impact, which is easier at a startup.

As Ukraine Awaits More NATO Arms, Its Improvisations Are Working

Ukraine's mechanics and technicians are improvising as they wait for delivery of more sophisticated NATO weaponry. 

In the interim, they have come up with some clever solutions combining firepower and mobility. Mount an anti-aircraft gun on a long-haul truck chassis: why didnt I think of that? JL 

Jack Buckby reports in 19fortyfive:

With more aid arriving in Ukraine from Western countries, Ukraine’s Territorial Defense Forces (TDF) are finding ways to improvise, reuse old hardware, and improve their firing capacity. Footage shows a single operator sitting on the back of a heavy goods vehicle. A Soviet-era AZP S-60 gun can be seen mounted to the back of the vehicle. The road-transportable anti-aircraft gun, which has been in use since 1950, is normally mounted on four wheels – however, the unit had been taken from its original chassis and mounted to the back of the truck, allowing troops to more quickly move the weaponry on the battlefield.

The Reason Russia Is Forced To Deploy 50 Year Old T-62 Tanks

These tanks were already a decade old when Russia invaded Afghanistan in 1979. But given that Russia is losing approximately 7 tanks a day (and it's been over 100 days), these are all that are left given that sanctions prevent Russia from building new ones.

US Defense Secretary Cap Weinberger said when the US attacked Iraq, "You go to war with the army you have." No irony intended. JL

Dan Parsons reports in The Drive:

T-62 tanks Russia pulled from mothballs and sent to Ukraine have been spotted on the battlefield sporting improvised armor 'cages' on top of their turrets. This suggests that Russian forces are well aware of how vulnerable these ancient armored vehicles are to Ukrainian anti-tank weapons. Some appear to be wearing warehouse codes in white paint along the sides of their hulls, which begs the question of how much maintenance they received after being pulled from long-term storage. Ukraine also practiced firing anti-tank weapons at target Soviet-era tanks outfitted with precisely this type of armor before a single Russian tanks crossed the border. The results were devastating.

Why Russian Sentiment Towards the War Is Changing

While still anecdotal, there are growing reports from those monitoring Russian-language communications, that both public and military attitudes towards the Ukraine invasion have become more negative. 

The change is the result of mass casualties which can no longer be dismissed, especially given the impact they are having on Russia's healthcare system. The economic effect of sanctions could be endured if Russians felt they were winning in any tangible sense, but that belief seems to be evaporating under the weight of reality. JL 

Dmitri Masinski reports in WarTranslated:

In the past week or so, I started sensing a change in the moods of comms I’m reading in Russian sources, most of which are very close to the frontline, many being separatist militias, others, regular Russian war correspondents and external observers with involvement in the conflict. Truths of various degrees of severity and pain are finding their way to the surface. There are still plenty of those strongly believing in the superiority of the Russian weapon and spirit. Yet the fairytales about the army “cracking NATO nuts” are not having the same effect. Most recent intercepted calls we’ve all heard and read (include) sentiments that are defeatist, even among Russian military personnel.

How Ukrainian Software Integration Improves Donated Weapon Accuracy

Fire and forget can't happen without plug and play. 

Warfare, like most other forms of human endeavor, is now dependent on effective integration of hardware and software. Ukraine's ability to adapt powerful new weapons from NATO requires integration into its management and targeting systems. That Ukraine was already a tech power dramatically improves the success of using these tools. JL

Thomas Theiner reports in Twitter:

Ukrainian, Dutch Army, and German Heer IT specialists, as well as Ukrainian translators and the companies that built the PzH 2000 got together and adapted the PzH 2000's software. Not only was the software translated,but also updated to tie into the Ukrainian GIS Arta artillery management system. This should allow Ukrainian PzH 2000 to fire at the Russians within seconds of a target being spotted.

Exhausted Russian Soldiers Complain of Casualties, Low Supplies, Old Weapons

Russia's surprise at finding itself in a war of attrition, combined with its manpower shortage has meant that Russian troops are unable to rotate off the front line to rest. 

The result is that many are suffering from exhaustion compounded by supply problems, high casualty rates, poor medical care and indifferent leadership, to the extent that some are starting to go public, even complaining to Putin. JL 

Andrew Roth and Pjotr Sauer report in The Guardian, image Alexander Ermochenko, Reuters:

High-level casualties are growing and some units may be approaching exhaustion as the war moves past its 100-day mark. As the conflict drags on, some fighters have gone public with appeals to Vladimir Putin for an investigation into battlefield conditions and whether their deployments to the front are even legal. The remarks are consistent with reports of Russian difficulties in rotating out its exhausted troops. Enlistment efforts have been hampered as Russia has not openly declared war against Ukraine."The Russian military is poorly designed for a grinding war of attrition, which is the conflict it is in."

How Ukraine Has Shown Small Countries the Smart Way To Fight Larger Attackers

One of the primary lessons of the Ukraine war for smaller countries - and even relatively large ones like Sweden and Finland - is that against a ruthless foe such as Russia or China, it is essential to have ability to stymie the enemy through unexpectedly serious losses and possibly defeat them. 

This is now affecting how countries proactively organize their defense through alliances, what weapons they procure, how they organize their military and their civilian population to prepare for total war. JL  

Peter Martin and colleagues report in Bloomberg:

From Taiwan to the Baltic to Moldova in Eastern Europe, small states need to make themselves extremely painful to swallow. That strategy’s implications range from weapons purchases to the way they structure their militaries and the assistance they seek. “The clear lesson is: You’ve got to be able to defeat the adversary’s ability to take and hold the key territory of your state.” To do so, countries vulnerable to  Russia or China need to embrace “asymmetric defense,” ensuring that “highly skilled, decentralized forces create trouble for heavier forces." Countries want “defense by denial” that makes it impossible for an invasion to succeed instead of reversing (one) after it’s started.

"The Occupier Should Never Feel Safe." How Ukraine Partisan Attacks Are Spreading

Credible reports are growing about bombings, assassinations of Russian soldiers and collaborators, as well as attacks on infrastructure in Russian-occupied regions. 

Ukraine had long planned a partisan resistance movement, modeled to some degree on similar activities undertaken by Ukrainians during WWII. These attacks are becoming sufficiently disruptive that Russian police units are being moved into Ukraine to try to stop the resistance. JL   

Peter Beaumont and Isabel Koshiw report in The Guardian:

Ukrainian partisans in occupied areas of the country are increasing attacks and sabotage on Russian forces and local collaborators, with organised underground efforts appearing to spread. Six Russian border guards were killed last week when their position came under fire near Zernovo in Ukraine’s north. Two days later an explosion involving a car packed with explosives, struck the office of a pro-Kremlin Ukrainian official in Melitopol. Also, a pro-Kremlin, self-proclaimed mayor in the Zaporizhzhia region was badly injured in an explosion. Hundreds volunteered to be trained as Ukrainian partisans, led by Ukrainian special forces. Some subversive activity is being carried out on the other side of the border.

Near Kharkiv, Ukraine Destroys 64th Motor Rifle Brigade, The "Butchers of Bucha"

It was well known in Ukraine that Russia's 35th Combined Arms Army, which had served in the failed attack on Kyiv, had subsequently been redeployed to Kharkiv. 

Among its units was the 64th Motor Rifle Brigade, which both the Ukrainian Prosecutor General and the European Union accused of war crimes by slaughtering civilians in Bucha. It was honored by Putin as a "Guards" unit (an historic Russian military reward) after being named in the massacre. The brigade appears to have been decimated in the past week. As the picture suggests, many of its soldiers were of the Buryat people from Siberia. Ukraine did not forget - or forgive. JL 

Alia Shoaib reports in Business Insider:

Ukraine claims to have obliterated Russia's 35th Combined Arms Army in Izyum, (near) Kharkiv. The Institute for the Study of War cited a Russian military blogger to corroborate the claims. The blogger claimed Russian commanders did not account for combat challenges in the Izyum woods, which led to significant losses (for) several brigades. The 64th and 38th Separate Guard Motor Rifle Brigades, part of the 35th Army, suffered major losses, and now have less than 100 servicemen in total. The EU has alleged Colonel Azatbek Omurbekov of the 64th Motor Rifle Brigade, led Russian troops as they "killed, raped and tortured civilians in Bucha."

Study Reveals Companies That Exited Russia Far Outperform Those That Stayed

Equity markets have rewarded western companies that exited Russia in response to global sanctions such a degree that even those forced to write-down billions in assets have realized market gains of almost twice as much. 

In addition, the benefits of exiting Russia have been so pronounced that it has spurred a second wave of companies to do so. JL

Ciara Linnane reports in Market Watch:

According to a new report from the Yale School of Management, "equity markets are rewarding companies for leaving Russia while punishing those that remain behind, with divergent stock performance corresponding with the degree of Russian exit - which holds true across regions, sectors and company sizes. The shareholder wealth created through equity gains have far surpassed the cost of one-time impairments for companies that have written down the value of their Russian assets.” Six companies incurred asset write-downs of $14 billion but generated $39 billion in subsequent equity gains. "Doing well has not been antithetical to doing good when it comes to withdrawing from Russia.”

Drivers of Delusion: Why Pre-Ukraine Russian Military Assessments Were So Wrong

Most western analysts believed Russia's hype about its military capabilities after its brutally efficient - and relatively bloodless - takeover of Crimea and parts of the Donbas in 2014. One of the benefits of a dictatorship like Russia's is that it can limit what outsiders see. 

But the downside of that system is that it tends to obscure the truth to insiders as well as those outside. This appears to be what happened to the Russian military, as its shortcomings have become exposed by its stymied invasion of Ukraine. Inadequacies in logistics, training, manpower shortages, combined arms coordination failures and doctrinal rigidity which would have become apparent early in a more transparent environment were covered up in Russia - until it was too late. JL

Robert Dalsjo and colleagues report in the International Institute for Strategic Studies, image Oleg Petrasyuk, PAP:

Explanations for Russian shortcomings (are) based on political wishful thinking regarding the public mood in Ukraine, Russian military capabilities and the reaction of the West. Russia’s military leadership had overdosed on ideas of next-generation warfare, whereby subversion and psychological operations in combination with long-range precision strikes would weaken the enemy so that little conventional force would be needed. The Kremlin was so convinced that Ukraine and the West would yield to a threatening military build-up that no proper invasion plan had been worked out. Rot in the Russian Armed Forces revealed by the Russo-Georgian War in 2008 was never removed, but painted over.

Why Ukraine Has Now Regained Control of 70 Percent of Severodonetsk

Although Russia controlled most of the key Luhansk capital city, Severodonetsk, as recently as 5 days ago, Ukrainian counterattacks ambushed Chechen fighters and militia from Russian occupied Donetsk, aided by artillery spotters on heights across the river which enabled very precise targeting and forced the Russians back. JL 

Mark Sumner reports in Daily Kos:

On Thursday, Russia had taken 80% of Severodonetsk. Russian sources were bragging the city had fallen. Then on Friday, Ukraine began a counterattack that quickly retook 20% of the city. By Saturday, Ukraine controlled 50% of Severodonetsk. And at the end of the day on Sunday, that appears to be 70%. From the town of (Ukrainian-held) Lysychansk, just across the river, it’s possible to look down into the streets of Severeodonetsk. That means Ukrainian soldiers are able to guide artillery to very precise locations. (And) the People's Militia of the LPR and DPR (troops from Russian-occupied Donetsk and Luhansk) suffer from "poor training, poor equipment, shoddy supply and quality of Russian "advisors"

How Ukraine Pres. Zelenskyy's Personal Risk-Taking Reinforces His Leadership

There is a leadership doctrine called "management by walking around." The idea is that by getting out of the executive office or from behind the computer, leaders can demonstrate their personal qualities while learning more about how things are going. 

When Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited the front lines around Kharkiv last week, he took that doctrine to another level, as most C-Suite executives are rarely threatened by artillery when inspecting a satellite office. But the concept is the same: he demonstrated personal commitment, reiterated the purpose of the work being done, exemplified leadership through shared sacrifice - and effectively differentiated himself from his opponent. Behaviors from which leaders in more peaceable realms could benefit. JL 

Mick Ryan reports in War In the Future:

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (has) demonstrated his willingness to take personal risks to visit soldiers in the field, getting his own sense of how operations are unfolding which allows him to get a feel for morale and capability. Second, it allows him to ask questions. A third is to engage with junior soldiers, to inspire them and to reiterate the purpose of their sacrifices. Purpose is the most important thing a leader can provide. He also demonstrates he has total trust in his Army, showing he is comfortable in placing his life in their hands. In demonstrating he is not a ‘bunker leader’, Zelenskyy shows he is the leader of a nation worth supporting in the long term - (and) differentiates himself from his adversary.