As They Retreat From Kherson, Russian Troops Loot Everything They Can

Sorry if this is too grisly for some, but Russian troop looting in Ukraine has become notorious, and their behavior in Kherson is no exception, especially now that they are being forced to retreat. 

Of course, not all of them can make it to safety with their stolen loot. JL 

 Luke Harding reports in The Guardian:

Things are disappearing in the Ukrainian city of Kherson at a rapid rate. Russian troops are taking away ambulances, tractors, stolen private cars, archives, paintings and sculptures from the art museums. Even the bones of Catherine the Great’s friend and lover, Grigory Potemkin. They have also been deporting local citizens under the guise of a humanitarian rescue mission. Russian soldiers are ferrying this loot across the Dnieper river, to the left bank of the Kherson region. A new fallback “border” appears to be taking shape, with the Dnieper a natural barrier.

The Reason US Cable Giants Are Jacking Up Broadband Prices

Because they can thanks to regional monopolies. JL

Karl Bode reports in Tech Dirt, image USA Today:

Cable giants continue to struggle to retain TV subscribers, so they’re extracting their pound of flesh from their captive cable broadband customers that have no alternative ISPs thanks to a continued lack of competition in the United States. Charter vaguely blamed inflation for the $5 monthly price hike. AT&T raised prices by $3 for all of its customers. Cable company Altice jacked up prices by $10 for all new customers. In wireless, Verizon  jacked up prices, while T-Mobile informed everybody they’d be implementing a new $35 fee for all activations and upgrades.

12,000 Russian Troop Defended Kaliningrad. Then They Were Sent To Die In Ukraine

Russia has squandered its physical and reputational assets in trying to subdue Ukraine. 

Putin's failed invasion has reduced the threat to NATO and bolstered its strategic geopolitical advantage. JL 

David Axe reports in Forbes:

The 11th Army Corps was supposed to defend Kaliningrad, Russia's geographically separate outpost on the Baltic Sea between Poland and Lithuania, and threaten NATO’s eastern front. Now it can do neither. When the war in Ukraine began to go badly for Russia, the Kremlin yanked the 11th Army Corps from Kaliningrad and sent it into Ukraine. Where the Ukrainian army destroyed it. The corps lost 200 vehicles and half of its troops in the counteroffensive. Some battalions are down to a tenth of their original manpower

As Russian Conscripts Brawl Drunk, Others Abandon Ukraine Post, Hide In Forest For 2 Weeks

You conscript placeholders, you get placeholder performance. JL 

Isabel van Brugen reports in Newsweek:

A group of untrained Russian troops, drafted after mobilization in September, fled from the front line in Ukraine and have been hiding in a forest for two weeks. They were deployed to Ukraine's Luhansk region without ammunition or food. The men were promised three months of training, but instead, were immediately given uniforms and sent. They were called "minced meat" in their military unit. (Meanwhile) a drunken mass brawl broke out among Russian troops at a training center in Yurga, Siberia. The incident comes as reports emerge of low morale and drunkeness among newly moblized recruits. Regular soldiers are indignant at the "endemic drunkenness" among mobilized troops.

Russians Retreat From Ukraine Kherson Advance, Leaving Conscripts To Fight

The Russians are withdrawing their most experienced and capable forces from Kherson, leaving recent conscripts who are poorly trained and equipped to dig in and do as much damage as they can. 

The strategy is aimed at inflicting some casualties on advancing Ukrainians while preserving their most valuable forces to resume offensive operations in the spring. JL

Matthew Luxmoore reports in the Wall Street Journal:

Russian forces in the occupied southern Ukrainian city of Kherson appear to be laying the groundwork for a withdrawal, replacing elite forces with mobilized troops, and abandoning some checkpoints around the city and its airport. Moscow has given priority to a temporary bolstering of forces in the area to cover the retreat. The bulk of Russian commanders have already withdrawn across the Dnipro.

Ukraine To Get 90 Czech T-72 Tanks Upgraded By US, Dutch

Impressive to see NATO countries coordinating so effectively. 

90 upgraded modern tanks is a significant  increase. JL 

Lara Seligman reports in Politico:

The Pentagon will pay for the Czech Republic to upgrade 45 Soviet-era T-72 tanks for use in Ukraine. The Netherlands will fund the refurbishment of another 45 Czech T-72 tanks for a total of 90 to begin arriving in Ukraine by the end of the year. The refurbishment will include adding new optics, communications and armor. The latest U.S. aid package also includes funding to upgrade American Hawk air defense missiles for use in Ukraine, an older, surface-to-air guided missile the U.S. no longer uses, and has longer range than the Stinger.

Why Have 20,000 Russian Soldiers Died In Ukraine Over the Last 5 Weeks?

840 Russians died in combat yesterday, according to Ukraine. Even if the real number was half that, it's a lot, especially given the equipment they lost as well. 

Most of the losses are coming from unceasing Russian assaults around Bakhmut, which have failed to gain any ground. And all, apparently, to prove to political leaders in Moscow that the Russian military is trying hard. JL 

Mark Sumner reports in Daily Kos:

840 Russians died in combat on November 3. They took with them 16 tanks, 28 armored vehicles, and 17 artillery pieces. It’s an astounding tally for a single day’s combat. Only a day earlier, they recorded 730 deaths, 20 tanks, 27 vehicles, and 22 big guns. The day before that, it was another 800 deaths and 16 tanks, and the day before that …No one’s OpSec is so good that they can disguise battles that racked up 20,000 dead  Russians over the course of five weeks. Where are those 20,000 dead Russians? On the ground, from about 50km north, to 100km south of Bakhmut.

In US, There Are Still 2 Job Openings For Every Unemployed Person

This means wage growth remains strong. 

Which explains why, despite Fed interest rate increases, inflation remains high and layoffs at companies like Twitter are unlikely to have much impact in the short run. JL 

Sam Ro reports in Tker:

The number of job openings in the U.S. remains very high. U.S. employers had 10.7 million job openings listed in September, an unexpected increase from the 10.3 million openings in August.As a result, businesses have been paying higher wages to recruit and retain workers. By putting more money in the pockets of workers, these workers are able to demand more goods even at higher prices. So Powell is actively trying to close the gap between the number of job openings and unemployed people. As of September, there were 1.86 job openings per unemployed person.

Russia Wasting Newly Mobilized Troops In Fruitless Attacks

The attacks are evidently designed to show Putin that the military is 'doing something,' even though little has been achieved and Ukrainian casualties have been negligible. JL

Andrew Kramer reports in the New York Times:

The Russian army is staging intense but ineffective attacks using newly drafted soldiers. Russia is pouring the new conscripts to the front line in an attempt to halt recent Ukrainian advances (after) ground forces (were) decimated during eight months of war. The deployment of Russians after a chaotic mobilization to front line areas through the fall (is) with high numbers of casualties expected. The advances are “impaling” ill-prepared units on well dug-in defensive positions of Ukraine’s battle-hardened troops. The Ukrainian military said 800 Russian soldiers had been wounded or killed over the previous 24 hours.

Russia Abandons 'Rubles-Only' Payment Policy In Kherson As Ukraine Advances

It's hard to impose your will when it's obvious you've lost control. JL

Brian Evans reports in Business Insider:

Russia is abandoning a plan that would enforce a ruble-only payment system in occupied Kherson. The move marks another setback for Russia's war on Ukraine. The Kremlin's state-run media said earlier this year that Kherson would use rubles for transactions starting May 1. But just as those four months were expiring, Ukrainian military launched a daring counter-offensive that has resulted in Russia withdrawing from large swaths of territory in northeastern and southern Ukraine.

Why Hardened Ukrainian Brigade Sees Russian Vulnerabilities In Kherson

Experienced Ukrainian soldiers, hardened by nine months of war, are unimpressed with Russia's newly mobilized troops and with their Iranian drones. They like their prospects of retaking Kherson. JL

Neil Hauer reports in Military Times:

Ukraine’s 59th Motorized Brigade, stationed in Kherson oblast at the start of the war,  was subjected to the full force of one of Russia’s best-prepared strike groups, an armored thrust northwards from occupied Crimea. But while they were forced to cede Kherson City in early March, the 59th held back Russia’s spearheads from seizing Mykolaiv, the next city along the coast towards Odesa. The changing balance of power sees the 59th poised to play a major role to liberate Kherson.”We’ve gone up against their mobilized men here. They are nearly useless. We have killed their professional soldiers, and now [Russia] is hoping to slow us down with bodies,”

The Reason Twitter Has Lost Almost 1 Million Users Since Musk Took Over

Close to 1 million Twitter users have deactivated or suspended their accounts on the platform in the week since Elon Musk bought the company with assistance from Arab investors.

Most appear to be opposed to his public persona, many offended by his increasingly right wing positions. But disgust at the rapid increase in hate speech on the site since his take over appears to be alienating advertisers, celebrities and users. This is likely to build on itself as more extremists follow those of similar ideology. The behavioral problem for Musk and his investors is that there are already many marginal right wing social media. They remain smallish due to fractionalization and because they enjoy provoking opponents on once more broadly appealing sites like Twitter rather than ranting among themselves. If moderates and left-leaning users abandon Twitter as they appear to be doing, the extremists are likely to get bored and their engagement will then decline as well, creating an even greater user exodus. JL 

Chris Stokel-Walker reports in MIT Technology Review:

People often threaten to leave Twitter and then fail to follow through, but new data suggests a significant number of users are abandoning the platform this time. 877,000 accounts were deactivated and a further 497,000 suspended between October 27 and November 1, more than double the usual number. Use of the N-word on Twitter increased 500% in the 12 hours after Musk announced he completed the deal. "The uptick in deactivations is a result of people upset with Musk purchasing Twitter deactivating their accounts in protest.” The hostile environment on Twitter will promote user attrition in the long run. “If left-leaners and (moderates) leave the platform, Twitter will not differ from Parler or Truth Social.”

Ukrainian Soldiers Learned To Fire Javelins, Launch Drones Using YouTube Videos

In the early days of the Russian invasion, many Ukrainian soldiers had no idea how to operate their more sophisticated weapons. So, even under fire, they watched YouTube videos. 

Now, 10 months later, they have become skilled at firing high tech anti-tank weapons and launching drones. But they still use YouTube and other commercially available tech for guidance. JL 

Frank Langfitt reports in NPR, image Evgeny Maloletka in AP:

On the second day of the war with Russia, two Ukrainian army reservists were ordered to deliver NLAW anti-tank missiles to fellow soldiers north of Kyiv. "A guy on the radio said, 'There are two Russian tanks coming. Try to hit one and livestream it!'' Neither had ever fired an NLAW. So, as the tanks approached, they hid and looked up a YouTube video on how to do so. These days, they are using drones and artillery as part of a high-tech war. Their recon team has its own Instagram account and YouTube channel. "It's lucky the Russians were more chaotic than us."

How A US Army-Funded Bioengineered Blood Vessel Is Saving Lives In Ukraine

Wars have frequently led to life-saving innovations in medical technology and procedure. The Ukraine war appears to be no different. JL 

Haley Britzky reports in Task and Purpose:

New, cutting-edge medical technology funded by the U.S. Army is saving lives in Ukraine. The human acellular  vessel (HAV) is a “bioengineered blood vessel” used to treat patients in Ukraine suffering from gunshot and shrapnel wounds, mine blast injuries. HAV is an “infection resistant vascular conduit,” which helps quickly restore a patient’s blood flow. The “regenerative vascular implant physically becomes part of the patient, saving surgeons “significant” time by not having to remove a patient’s vein to make a bypass. "HAV implantations performed for patients with blast trauma helped save their lives and limbs.”

Why Human Workers Are Winning the Battle With Robots

Turns out that from radiologists to fast food workers and truck drivers, humans are very good at what they do and routinely outperform robots.

And are likely to do so for the foreseeable future, primarily because new technology historically optimizes investment by supplementing rather than replacing humans. JL

Farhad Manjoo reports in the New York Times:

Humans are winning the job market. Job categories that a few years ago were said to be doomed by A.I. are doing fine. First, humans have been underestimated. It turns out many of us are amazing at what we do. Humans still routinely outperform machines. Even with a shortage of fast-food workers, robots “may be garnering headlines” but are “not practical for the vast majority of restaurants.” The likeliest outcome is what has always happened when humans acquire new technologies - the technology augments our capabilities rather than replaces us.

Russia Is Fighting By the Book - But, Problem Is, It's the Wrong Book

The Russian military is designed, reflexively, to respond to invasion, given that its national myth is built largely on the defeats of Napoleon and Hitler. 

But in Ukraine, Russia is the aggressor - even though it may have convinced itself its motivation for invading was 'defensive. Its systems, logistics, tactics and strategy were not created with offense in mind - and its culture is not adaptive. The result is it is fighting a war diametrically opposed to every principle its structure and training was built to win. JL

Max Boot reports in the Washington Post:

The Russian war effort has been a study in ineptitude. Russia has done far worse than most analysts expected because it was not prepared for the kind of war it is fighting. Russian conduct of this war is not only a moral failure but an intellectual one. Russian doctrine (is) a response to the deeply ingrained fear of foreign invasion from Napoleon to Hitler. (But with Ukraine) the Russian military was thinking defensively and that left it ill-prepared to operate offensively. Only 7 months into the war did Putin order partial mobilization. It resulted in more men fleeing the country than entering the army. (And) Russia has lost so many experienced officers and soldiers, it doesn’t have enough to train the new conscripts.

Ukraine Special Forces Attack Russian Base Near Latvia, Destroy Helicopters

Ukrainian special operations capabilities are improving. 

And, for some reason, perhaps related, the electricity in Moscow failed for a while last night... JL 

Stefan Korshak reports in the Kyiv Post:

Ukrainian commandos blew up three helicopter gunships at a Russian military airfield close to the Latvian border. the Oct. 30 attack took place at the Russian army’s Veretye air base in north-western Pskov Region. The facility is more than 500 km. from Ukraine. Two Ka-52 attack helicopters were destroyed, a third was badly damaged by Ukrainian operatives infiltrating in and out without being detected. Russian security teams found a fourth helicopter rigged with explosives that had not gone off. Multiple Russian Telegram channels have confirmed the attack took place.

Reports Grow That Russians Abandon Kherson Checkpoints, Remove HQ Flag

Possibly preparing for a battle, but perhaps more realistically, indicative of a withdrawl to more defensible lines on the other side of the Dnipro. JL 

Matthew Roscoe reports in EuroWeekly:

According to early reports coming out of Ukraine (today), the Russian flag that was flying above the main administration building in Kherson has been removed while checkpoints around the city have reportedly been abandoned. “The city administration building in Kherson, (has) no Russian flag flying on the flagpole and seemingly no Russian troops present. Checkpoints once manned by Russian troops are now abandoned…" In a video, Ukrainian civilians in Kherson riding on a bus film a checkpoint previously occupied by Russian troops, cheer when they realise it’s been abandoned.

Russian Conscripts Demand Promised Bonuses "Or Duma Deputies Can Go Fight In Ukraine Themselves"

The Russian approach to military motivation remains...perplexing. JL 

Gerrard Kaonga reports in Newsweek:

Soldiers are complaining that their families were not given the 300,000 rubles ($5,000)  they were promised for joining the Russian army. "Russian mobiks [mobilized troops] are demanding the 'promised' one-off payment of 300,000 rubles," which a military rep says was never actually promised. "That's obvious what you're trying to tell us here. It's that we've been simply f***** over. Members of the Duma should go instead of us."

Ukrainian Pilots Hunt Cruise Missiles As 12 of 13 Attack Drones Shot Down

Since Russia appears incapable of winning on the ground, its attacks pn civilian targets with missiles and drones will be unrelenting. But Ukrainian forces are responding with greater degrees of success. JL 

Valius Venckunas reports in Aviation News and Euromaidan Press reports:

The head of Chernivtsi Oblast administration Ruslan Zaparaniuk confirmed that an Ukrainian aircraft shot down a missile over Dnistrovskyi district. According to the post, the remains of the missile fell into a lake. On October 22 Russia conducted a cruise missile strike, which involved 17 Kh-55 (X-101) missiles launched by Tupolev Tu-160 and Tu-95 strategic bombers, as well as 16 3M-54 Kalibr missiles launched by ships stationed in the Black Sea. (Last night) “12 out of 13 loitering munitions were destroyed by air defenses in the eastern and central regions of the country.”

How Wagner's Recruiting Criminals Is Causing More Crime Against Russians

From extorting families for cash in return for the bodies of their dead relatives, killed in Ukraine, to deserting with their weapons to return to criminal activity in Russia, the Wagner Group recruitment of career criminals appears to be a mixed blessing for the Russians. JL 

ChrisO reports in Twitter:

Did Wagner mercenaries execute one of their own men and try to extort the wrong set of relatives to sell the corpse back to them?Men from the same prison colony are kept together for more effective unit cohesion. This is likely to mean that Wagner has imported prison gang structures into its units. This makes some sense from a cohesion and discipline point of view – gangs have their own hierarchies which could map roughly onto military hierarchies – but it most likely means that Wagner convict units are literally armed gangs, rather than professional, trained soldiers.

As Russians Retreat, Collaborators Are Exposed, Facing Retribution

There are degrees of collaboration - from teachers who kept teaching and municipal workers who kept utilities running to those informing on neighbors and fighting for the Russians. 

The Ukrainians are trying to be fair, but a reckoning is due. JL 

Yaroslav Trofimov reports in the Wall Street Journal:

Ukrainian forces came back in September, as part of their rapid offensive in the eastern Kharkiv region. Now, towns and villages in recently liberated parts of Ukraine are torn from within by tensions between those who escaped or opposed the Russians—and those who are viewed as having accommodated the enemy. Dozens of collaborators have been gunned down by unknown assailants in occupied areas. Now that many of the formerly Russian-occupied areas are back under Kyiv’s control here, Ukrainian authorities are taking a measured approach. "We dont keep people in torture chambers."

How Ukraine's Recon Teams Penetrate Russian Lines To Aid Kherson Offensive

The counteroffensive to retake Kherson has become a grinding battle in which the Ukrainians skill at penetrating enemy defenses has enabled dramatic gains. JL 

Carlotta Gall reports in the New York Times:

Ukraine has made dramatic gains with its recent counteroffensive in the south, thanks in part to a much strengthened artillery, but also to small specialized reconnaissance teams penetrating enemy lines. Ukrainians came under crushing fire in settlements they had recaptured as Russian troops poured artillery and airstrikes down on the positions they had just abandoned. (They) were asked to scout out and disable enemy snipers, artillery spotters and drone pilots who were guiding in the fire on Ukrainian positions. “We started  taking them out one by one with mortars, with snipers.”

Why the Billion Dollar Tech Unicorn Has Become So Rare Again

Higher interest rates, fear of recession and the absence of a "new, new thing" have all conspired to limit investment by traditional financial firms in venture capital, reducing the number of billion dollar unicorn tech companies in 2022. 

The looming question is what it will take to bring them back. JL 

Nitasha Tiku and Gerrit DeVynck report in the Washington Post:

Investors minted only 25 companies over $1 billion each in the third quarter of 2022. A year ago, there were five times as many new unicorns. Venture firms have made the biggest returns on just a few of the many in which they invest. But as governments pushed up interest rates this year to stave off inflation, pension and sovereign wealth funds left the venture market to focus on less risky long-term investments. As the stock prices of public companies dropped, private markets followed. “There’s not enough capital to really make investments that are going to create unicorns.” The drop in the number of unicorns is a sign of rationality, but "venture capital has never been a rational asset."

Ukraine Receiving Modern Tanks To Bolster All Those It's Captured From Russians

Former Soviet satellite countries understand what is at risk as Ukraine battles Russia and continue to provide significantly upgraded weaponry to Ukraine, which should be especially useful once the winter freeze makes roads and fields more passable for armored warfare. JL 

Peter Suciu reports in 19fortyfive:

The Ukrainian military may have captured enough Russian T-62 tanks to equip a tank battalion, but those vehicles that Russian crews have abandoned (are being bolstered) by 28 M55S tanks from Slovenia have been successfully delivered to Ukraine. The M55S is a newly-built, modernized version of the Soviet-era T-55 main battle tank. 7 seven Czech Army T-72 MBTs have also been transported to Ukraine, along with four BVP-2 infantry fighting vehicles, and Tatra military trucks.

Russia Is Losing 1 Helicopter A Day In Ukraine On Average. Yesterday It Lost 3

In a Ukrainian battlefield replete with precision munitions and computer-guided air defense, the helicopter is proving especially vulnerable.

It may be that like the tank, it is simply Russian ineptitude in using them that accounts for the toll. But there is a growing belief that drones and computer guided missiles can now perform the same tasks better and with less risk. JL 

Mark Sumner reports in Daily Kos:

On Halloween, Russia lost three helicopters. On average, the Russian air force has lost one helicopter a day since the invasion began. Russia’s loss in Ukraine so far represents $3.8B worth of helicopters. It’s also likely to have lost 200 trained pilots along with an unknown number of crew and passengers. Helicopters have done work that is spectacular (i.e. night raid where a pair of Ukrainian helicopters flew at tree-top level 30 miles into Russia, took out a Russian fuel depot, and returned). But increasingly, it’s hard to see how even those special tasks couldn’t be better performed by drones or precision-guided ammunition.

New Russian Conscripts Given Decrepit Weapons Using Different Caliber Ammo

In the early stages of WWII, some Russian troops were sent into combat without weapons, having been instructed to pick up those of the soldiers who attacked before them and were then killed or wounded.

New conscripts are reportedly showing up with AK47s so old that they can not be fired - or use a different caliber of ammunition from that the Russian army now employs, further complicating an already dysfunctional logistics effort. JL  

Jake Epstein reports in Business Insider:

Russian reservist troops sent to fight in Ukraine have arrived at the front lines with "barely usable" rifles. Many of the AKM rifles given to Russian reservists are " in barely usable condition following poor storage." These weapons also differ from newer rifles assigned to Putin's regular combat units, like the AK-12 or AK-74M, in that they use different types of ammunition. It will "further complicate Russia's already strained logistics systems." Some individuals were even sent without weapons.

In Preparing To Attack Kherson, Ukrainian Officers Not Underestimating Russians

Ukrainian forces are preparing for the next phase of their offensive to retake Kherson. 

And while they are increasingly confident of their own capabilities, they are not making the mistake of underestimating the Russians. They believe the Russians have learned from their earlier mistakes and despite logistical and morale problems, will fight. JL 

Franco Ordonez reports in NPR, image Bulent Kilic AFP:

Ukrainian forces have made significant gains over the last several weeks, recapturing wide swaths of Ukrainian territory in the east and northeast. But Russian forces won't be underprepared. The Russians have learned that the Ukrainians can fight, causing them to rethink earlier efforts to quickly take large chunks of territory."They're not the same forces as they were in the spring. It is hard to fight them. We made progress. They reacted. And now we need to make new opportunities."

Despite Russian Threats, Ukraine Grain Convoy Sails and Arrives Unscathed

Russia threatened, but proved unwilling to back up its bluff when a convoy of ships filled with Ukrainian grain left Odesa and headed into the Black Sea - under Turkish escort. 

The reality is that Russia doesnt have much of a navy left after Ukrainian attacks - and Ukrainian missiles render any further threat unlikely. Plus Putin cannot risk alienating Turkey, which is making money and enhancing its reputation from the grain deal. JL  

Chris Pleasance reports in Mailonline:

Twelve ships loaded with grain have left Ukraine's ports despite Russia withdrawing from a pact granting them safe passage through the Black Sea. Turkish President Erdogan vowed that his country will continue to provide security to the ships. Turkey and the United Nations said teams had inspected the vessels and were watching over them. 9.5 million tons of corn, wheat, sunflower products, barley, rapeseed and soy have been exported from the Black Sea since July.

As Ukraine Causes Putin To Fear Coup, He Uses 3 Surgically Enhanced Doubles

When the defining initiative of your career is imploding, the murderous atmosphere you created suggests you can't be too careful. JL 

Ian Birrel reports in The Sun:

Vladimir Putin is using at least three body doubles who have had plastic surgery to look like him. (Ukraine) had detected Putin doubles in the past standing in for him on 'special occasions', but it is 'usual practice' now. 'We know specifically about three people that keep appearing. They all had plastic surgery to look alike. 'The one thing that gives them away is their height. It's visible in videos and pictures. Also gesturing and body language.' In July, Putin may have sent a body double in his place for a visit to Iran. It has been suspected Josef Stalin and Leonid Brezhnev also used body doubles as decoys.

Ukraine Shoots Down 44 of 50 Russian Missiles. German Iris-T Anti-Air System Hits 100 Percent of Targets

The Russian missiles being fired at Ukraine's civilian infrastructure are damaging, but air defense accuracy is improving, especially with the German Iris-T systems which have hit everything they've targeted. 

More of those have been promised by Germany to Ukraine. JL 

Kostan Nechyporenko and colleagues report in CNN:

Ukraine’s air force said Russia had launched more than 50 cruise missiles into Ukraine on Monday, and said it had intercepted 44 of them. 10 Russian missiles were shot down over Kyiv. So far Germany has supplied Ukraine with one IRIS-T. “This system worked with a 100% result.” Monday’s missiles were launched from Soviet-era Tupolev Tu-95 and Tu-160 bombers that took off from Russia’s Rostov region and over the Caspian Sea. "Such terrorist actions targeting water and electricity supply do not scare people anymore. We can handle this."

Russia Is Set To Suffer the Deepest Recession of Any Major Economy

Russia has benefited from higher prices for oil and gas but that advantage is predicted to end soon as the global economy slows. 

And the long term outlook is worse because traditional customers in Europe have proved more resilient than expected and will continue to reduce Russian imports as they no longer regard Russia as a country on whom they feel comfortable relying for essential products. JL 

Paul Hannon reports in the Wall Street Journal:

Russia is set for the deepest recession of any large economy this year, according to new forecasts from its central bank—and economists forecast a gloomy future as the windfall from high energy prices fades, sanctions tighten and the country struggles to replace Europe as the main buyer of its oil and gas. Europe’s largest economies are proving more resilient to higher energy costs than had been expected. Russia’s share of global exports of oil and gas could halve by 2030, and that it is unlikely that China will replace lost European markets for natural gas

How Underfunded Ukrainian Drone Troops Accomplish So Much With So Little

Ukraine, fortunately, had a robust tech sector before Russia invaded. Those with such skills have applied them to converting civilian devices to military applications. 

Funding is scarce and training is mostly self-taught, but creativity, engineering backgrounds and motivation give them an advantage. JL 

Sam Skove reports in RFE/RL:

Drones working with artillery is the "most important pair" in offensive operations and one of the keys to Ukraine's stunning September counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region. (But) the necessity of using experimental drones on the battlefield is an indicator of the supply problems that Ukraine's drone units face. Demand still far outpaces supply. 20% of the Ukrainian military's demand had been met. "As long as we're using household appliances, we're forced to work" on the most dangerous line of Ukrainian positions. "We're fighting a war out of pickup trucks."

Russians Blow Up Bridges To Slow Ukrainians' Advance In Donbas

Ukrainian forces appear to be advancing in Donbas as Russia allegedly attempts to reinforce Kherson. 

The Ukrainian strategy of keeping the Russians guessing where they are going to strike next continues to work well - and the breakthrough could come in either sector. JL 

Daily Kos reports:

Russia has taken two curious actions suggesting Ukrainian advance are, indeed, coming along—they blew the rail bridge north of Svatove, and they blew another bridge leading into the town of Krasnorichens’ke, south of Svatove. If Russia blew the bridge, it impacts Russia’s positions on this front. Holding the high positions will give it fire control into that entire string of towns, and the roads that help supply Svatove. If Svatove falls, another major slice of Ukraine is liberated, and opens up the road toward Starobilsk, which would single-handedly liberate the entire northeast corner of Ukraine.

Russian General Lapin Was Fired For Losing Lyman. Then Recruit Abuse Stories Emerged

The story of Colonel-General Lapin personifies the Russian military's leadership problems. 

In addition to abusive behavior, failures of tactical analysis and execution, some of the most senior officers in the army appear to be notoriously indifferent to their troops' treatment. They blame their underlings, as they are blamed by Putin for failures of his strategy. The result is Ukrainian defeat of the poorly led and unmotivated Russians. JL 

Elsa Buchanan reports in The Irish Sun and ChrisO reports in Twitter:

Chechen Warlord Ramzan Kadyrov accused Colonel-General Aleksandr Lapin of allowing Ukrainian forces to break through the front in what he described as a "surrender". (But) with the dismissal of Lapin as the commander of Russia's Central Military District, ugly stories are emerging about his treatment of mobilised soldiers. The men were not given combat training, then sent to Ukraine to defend a heavily contested section of the front line where they endured 7 hours of shelling before those still alive retreated. "Lapin put a gun to the head of Lieutenant [Vodnev], demanding we go back to the front, and threw insults at us. Vodnev was taken away by Lapin's bodyguards for 'correction'."

Why Middle Managers Are Bearing the Brunt of Hybrid Work Leadership Challenge

Middle managers are finding that senior enterprise leaders want employees back in the office but don't want to be 'the bad guy' who makes it happen, especially since they are not holding themselves to that same mandate. 

The result is that middle managers are being squeezed by senior executives' demands as well as by employee resentment, complaints and resignations - all of which impact their job rating and compensation. And on top of that few organizations are providing training on how to manage these conflicting demands. The outcome is an increasingly frustrated middle management core who are then themselves feeling forced to contemplate job changes. JL

Jo Constantz reports in Fortune:

43% of managers say they’re burned out - reporting the highest levels of stress and anxiety and the worst work-life balance. They’re under increasing pressure from higher-ups to deliver amid economic uncertainty and concerns about declining productivity, while at the same time hearing from employees whose compensation is not keeping up with inflation. And from the onset of the pandemic they’ve been tasked with navigating the challenges of leading remote and hybrid teams. Many managers are frustrated with return-to-office mandates themselves, and don’t want to be the ones enforcing them. “There is rarely extra training to support managers.”

Details Emerge of Ukraine Drone Boat Attack On Russian Fleet In Crimea

The mysterious craft pictured at right washed up near Sebastopol a month ago. It was evidently a precursor to the drone boats that successfully attacked the Russian fleet there a few days ago. 

The craft had sufficient fuel and explosives to travel a significant distance and damage a large naval vessel. JL

Howard Altman and colleagues report in The Drive:

The Ukrainian Armed Forces have released footage from aboard several unmanned surface vessels used in the attack. The video shows the attack run on a guided missile frigate and Russian forces engaging the USVs with machine-gun fire. The USVs appear to be of the same design as the mystery drone boat found near Sevastopol in September. If launched from land, these had to travel 130 miles. For a small unmanned vehicle running on a jetski-like drive, there would be a tradeoff between fuel capacity and explosives/warhead weight. A month ago, Russia had upped its security leading into Sevastopol's harbor likely due to the threat of unmanned surface vessel attacks.

Intercepted Phone Calls Reveal Russian Troops "Snuffing Out" Comrades Trying To Retreat

Speaking of motivation and morale. JL 

Allison Quinn reports The Daily Beast:
 

It seems some men were sent not to fight the so-called “enemy” but to “snuff out” any of the Russian troops who dare to retreat. Ukrainian intelligence released an intercepted phone conversation between a Russian soldier and his wife, in which the man says he and the other men in his unit are a comfortable distance from the actual fighting, sent not to fight the so-called “enemy” but to “snuff out” any of the Russian troops who dare to retreat. "We sit on the second line, guarding the first. Behind us, there’s another line. It’s impossible to run away. If someone runs back, we snuff them out.”

GM Pulls Ads From Twitter As Its EVs Increasingly Compete With Tesla

This is business and personal. GM is competing with Tesla, planning to eventually outsell its rival in the EV, battery and solar markets. 

In the interim, GM is not strategically convinced that its brand will benefit from being associated with an increasingly chaotic and hate-filled Twitter platform. The fact that a failed $44 billion Twitter acquisition will distract Musk and make it more difficult for him to finance Tesla has not escaped their notice either. JL

Emma Roth reports in The Verge:

General Motors has halted advertising on Twitter after Tesla CEO Elon Musk completed his acquisition. GM is pausing paid advertising on Twitter to evaluate “the direction of the platform." Musk has attempted to reassure advertisers by saying he will not let Twitter become a “free-for-all hellscape." GM has doubled down on its efforts to compete with electric vehicle (EV) rivals like Tesla, increasing investment in electric and autonomous vehicles. GM CEO Mary Barra believes GM’s EVs will outsell Tesla by the middle of the decade, and the automaker plans to take over Tesla on the energy front, creating a new division to sell solar panels and batteries

"It Will Be A Stalingrad Winter For Them:" Why Putin's Cold-Weather Coercion Failed

The Battle of Stalingrad ran from November 1942 to January 1943. Of the 270,000 German soldiers surrounded there, 91,000 survived to be captured by the Russians. Of those, 5,000 eventually returned to Germany after the war. 

80 years later, Putin thought he could terrrorize the Ukrainians into suing for peace, in part by cutting their power. But the Ukrainians are tough, resourceful and have civilized global support. Russian failures of logistics, weaponry, troop morale and inadequate leadership make it more likely that his troops in Kherson will end up like those Germans at Stalingrad. JL  

Lawrence Freedman reports in Comment Is Freed:

From the start Putin has relied on coercive pressures to deliver the political victories that he has failed to achieve by military means. For all the suffering he has caused in Ukraine he has yet to succeed. The resilience of Russian soldiers, away from home, poorly led, often cut off from supplies and in exposed positions, will be tested by the winter weather. No one pretends that this winter will be anything other than miserable, but there is no evidence that it is making the people of Ukraine any less determined to win the war.

Report: Russian War Crimes In Ukraine Were Purposeful and Strategic

As the Russian military are forced to retreat and more evidence of war crimes emerges, analysis of captured documents and intercepted communications reveals these were not the actions of 'rogue' soldiers but part of a carefully developed policy instituted at the highest levels of the Russian government and army. JL  

Erica Kinetz reports in the Associated Press:

Deaths were part of a pattern of violence that left hundreds of civilians beaten, tortured and executed. This wasn’t the work of rogue soldiers, an investigation shows. It was strategic and organized brutality, perpetrated in areas that were under tight Russian control where military officers were present. Russia’s battle plans used lists compiled by Russian intelligence and conducted “zachistka” - cleansing operations - sweeping neighborhoods to neutralize anyone who might pose a threat. In intercepted phone calls (troops) told loved ones they’d been ordered to take a no-mercy approach. "We do not take prisoners."

How NATO High Tech Weapons Give Ukraine Superiority Against Russia

The fortunes in the Russian invasion of Ukraine have shifted as NATO weapons effectively used by Ukrainian troops decimate Russian units. 

Because of the Russians logistical, technological and leadership disadvantages, they are incapable of responding in kind. JL 

Andrew Kramer reports in the New York Times:

In recent months, the tide has turned along the front lines in southern Ukraine. With powerful Western weapons and deadly homemade drones, Ukraine now has artillery superiority.Ukraine now has an edge in both range and in precision-guided rockets and artillery shells, a class of weapons largely lacking in Russia’s arsenal. Ukrainian soldiers are taking out armored vehicles worth millions of dollars with cheap homemade drones. There is no mistaking the shifting fortunes (given) Ukraine’s growing advantage in artillery. "If they try to hold out in Kherson city, it will be Stalingrad in winter for them."