Kremlin Denies Report Putin Fell Down Stairs and Soiled Himself

If you have to deny such reports, it tends only to serve in spreading them further. JL

Yaron Steinbuch reports in the New York Post:

The Kremlin has poo-pooed a report that Russian strongman Vladimir Putin recently fell down a flight of stairs and defecated on himself. The denial comes after the Telegram channel “General SVR,” which purports to be run by a former Kremlin spy, claimed the 70-year-old leader suffered a fecal fall at his residence on Nov. 30. Putin’s alleged discharge came amid a rash of reports and speculation about his deteriorating health, including that he is suffering from worsening cancer and Parkinson’s disease. “Three bodyguards helped the president get to the nearest couch."

Ukraine Is Only One Part of Russia's Assault On the Global Order

Russia's attack on Ukraine is only the most obvious of its assaults on the global order from which is suffers by comparison due to the corruption and bankruptcy of its policies. 

And the fact that it is losing speaks to the failure of its system. JL 

Robert Vass and Robin Shepherd report in Defense One:

The clash of militaries is only part of a wider conflict pressed by Russia against the West. First, there is an attack on the entire post-World War II order. The second battle is taking place in our digital space, inside democratic societies from Washington to Tallin and beyond into Asia. A relentless information war is being fought by Russia with the goal of destroying our will to defend ourselves, and undermining trust in our institutions and values. A third involves our economies. It is simultaneously a frontal attack against the global order

Zero Covid's Failure Is Xi's Failure. And There Will Be Consequences

The public perception is that Xi caved to public pressure when a harsh policy he championed had clearly failed. 

The quick change is an admission of that - and it raises other questions about his one man rule. JL 

Michael Schuman reports in The Atlantic:

By switching from one extreme position to another, Xi may be exchanging one crisis for another. The strict controls had become such a burden on society that protests calling for their removal erupted, raising the prospect of widespread unrest. Now, Xi may face the political risks of an epidemic that could claim hundreds of thousands of lives. The sudden changes have left the impression Xi caved to public pressure. The takeaway from the recent protests may be “Resistance works.” The COVID reversal leaves the masses to fend for themselves. Why, then, the public could ask, do we put up with the regime's repressive power? In a China where Xi Jinping wants all power and glory, he’ll also get all the blame.

Ukrainians Poised To Outflank Kreminna As Bakhmut Remains Russian Deathtrap

Ukrainian forces are making slow, incremental progress around Kreminna and Svatove, keeping the pressure on depleted Russian units. 

In Bakhmut, Ukraine appears to be employing the same tactic it did over the summer in Severodonetsk and Lysichansk; putting up just enough resistance so that it becomes a killing ground for Russian troops but without wasting too many scarce resources of its own. JL 

Mark Sumner reports in Daily Kos:

Around Kreminna, Ukraine continues to move along the P66 highway while Ukrainian troops continue the attempt to clear Russian troops. The forces hitting from the north have been joined by additional Ukrainian forces on the west. Ukraine could be very close to severing supply lines both north and south of Kreminna. Bakhmut is divided by the Bakhmutka River, beyond which the terrain rises. So even if Russia is able to force Ukraine from long-held positions in the eastern part of the city, it’s unlikely the remainder of Bakhmut would fall.

Why Winter Is Proving Harder For Russian Troops Than For Ukrainians

The Ukrainians have demonstrated that every change of circumstance is simply another opportunity to be taken advantage of. Winter will be no exception.

For Russia, every new situation is another obstacle to overcome. And they have repeatedly failed to show that they can adapt. Winter will further compound their problems. JL 

Liam Collins reports in Task and Purpose:

This war has demonstrated that only the Ukrainians, can execute effective combat maneuvers. The Ukrainians were able to conquer territory without using many troops on the ground.The Ukrainians will attempt to launch a large-scale counteroffensive in late winter when the ground is frozen. Snow will have an impact on Russia’s underperforming logistical system, and the cold will further lower the already low morale of Russia’s poorly outfitted and undertrained soldiers. Ukraine’s military has showed it is superior to Russia’s in every category. It had better doctrine, leaders, strategy, culture, will and proved  it effectively fights battles with a combination of artillery, tanks, soldiers and air attacks.

"We Pushed and They Collapsed:" How Ukraine Liberated the Kharkiv Region

The Kharkiv offensive was won by troops who were better prepared, better equipped and better led. 

Since many were locals, they knew the terrain. And because they had been trained in NATO doctrine, they were better able to exploit opportunities as they arose. The combination was literally unbeatable. JL 

Alexander Query reports in Kyiv Independent:

Russia’s military, still based on the old Soviet model, made missteps in the region, including stretching the front line over hundreds of kilometers. Russian forces didn't take the time to build second or third lines of defense. As a result, Russian troops had to move in the open, which put them at risk of being spotted. (And many) soldiers were locals who know the areas they're fighting for. "We know the back roads." Dismantling Soviet doctrine has paid off. Under the new standards in the Ukrainian military, every platoon has a clear objective, but the decision on how to achieve that is made on the ground in real-time. "The decision you make depends on you and your skills."

With Little Artillery and Armor Support, Bakhmut Is A Slaughterhouse For Russians

The cold and damp are miserable for both sides, but the Russians face shortages of weapons, ammunition, cold weather gear and armored support. 

Despite that they are forced by Wagner, Chechens and other blocking troops to continue fighting, leading to horrendous casualties. JL 

Peter Beaumont reports in The Guardian:

Outside Bakhmut, with the distances so close between the Russians and Ukrainians, the Russian forces - mostly recently mobilised, or mobiks - were unable to call in artillery. "We got one of their radios. We could hear the Russians asking for artillery support and being told that there was none available.” The Russians have spent six months trying to break through. For Moscow that lack of success, after a series of battlefield defeats, is significant. When the Russians attack it is often with little tank support. They use fighters from Wagner as assault troops and newly mobilised soldiers to defend positions. "They looked chaotic and disorganised. It’s why we were able to kill so many.”

US Considering Major Expansion of Training For Ukrainian Troops

The US and NATO allies believe that the training they have provided Ukrainian troops in the UK and Germany has enhanced Ukraine's ability to use the weapons they have provided more effectively and contributed significantly to the most recent defeats of the Russians at Kharkiv and Kherson. 

The US wants to build on those successes by dramatically increasing the scale and tempo of the training being provided. The Ukrainian troop training will likely take place at the historic NATO base in Grafenwohr, Germany. JL 

Sofrep reports:

US officials are considering a major increase in Ukrainian military training, which would significantly boost its capacity to expel Russian troops from occupied areas. Hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers could train in Grafenwoehr, Germany, where the US military has instructed forces for years. They want to increase Ukraine’s ability to maneuver on the battlefield with a more modern type of warfare that relies less on firing thousands of artillery rounds in a war of attrition. The new training aims to teach tactics that enhance the effectiveness of the armaments they already have, as well as the nimbleness and flexibility they have demonstrated with small units.

Why Russia's Failure In Ukraine Threatens Its Myth And Thus Its Empire

Russian influence is driven by the myth of its invincibility. That myth is being discredited by Ukraine, whose superiority appears to increase every week, attacks on Russian air bases being only the most recent example. 

If the Russian myth of invulnerability collapses, it is conceivable - possibly inevitable - that its empire stretching from Europe to Siberia will disintegrate. JL 

Kamil Galeev reports in Twitter:

Russia is the last European colonial empire that remains largely intact. Within the next year Russia will spiral into a deep political crisis. There is a nonzero chance that it may scale up existing separatist tendencies leading to the breakup of the empire. A defeat by Ukraine would have greater effect because Russian empire is held not only by force, but by myth. From the Russian perspective Ukraine is a rebel province. The war with Ukraine is a test for the imperial myth. Russian failure to beat Ukraine is enough to shake faith in the imperial myth thus triggering disintegration.

Ukraine Continues To Press Its Advance In Donbas - And By Missile Further Afield

As their long range weapons capability increases, the Ukrainians are opening up a 'third front,' attacking Russian air bases from which suicide drones and bombers carrying missiles are launched. 

On the ground, as the weather turns colder, soldiers carrying antitank weapons are again attacking Russian tanks which are devoid of cover and forced to remain on paved roads as they were when the invasion began. And the results are similar. JL 

Mark Sumner reports in Daily Kos:

In addition to explosions at the airport outside Berdyansk, there are now reported explosions underway at the airport in occupied Melitopol. Berdyansk has been one of the sites from which drones and Russian planes carrying missiles have been directing attacks on Ukrainian cities and towns. Ukrainian forces are reporting that they are still advancing on all sides of Kreminna. This last week has seen a lot of human portable anti-tank weapons at work again, like in the early days of the war. What those two times have in common is a lot of mud, and very few leaves. So armored vehicles are largely confined to paved roads while remaining highly visible.

How Migration Has Reshaped World Cup Teams - and Results

This year's Qatar World Cup has the greatest percentage of foreign-born players representing other countries in the event's history. 

But most of them are the children or grandchildren of immigrants - or have ancestral ties to the country they represent. Even in seemingly idiosyncratically "American" sports like football, baseball and basketball, the percentage of foreign players is growing. The global war for talent to assist in winning touches all aspects of life and business. Sport is no different. JL  

Stephen Osserman and Youyou Zhou report in Vox:

The number of foreign-born players on World Cup teams is increasing. France, the defending champions, won the last cup with the majority of the team French-born children or grandchildren of African migrants. The 2022 Qatar World Cup has the highest share of foreign-born players in the event’s history: 137 of the 830 players from the 32 teams are representing countries other than their birthplaces. There are more players representing countries where they could get citizenship through ancestral links. 26 Brazilian players have represented 13 countries other than Brazil. National teams are increasingly looking for talents outside their borders, and that top players today have more choices than ever.

Putin and Cronies Have Escape Plan For When Russia Implodes Says Former Aide

Putin and his allies are allegedly purchasing property and securing residency rights in Venezuela, Argentina and some other South American countries in case they have to escape Russia if the war continues to go badly and an angry populace becomes more violently opposed to their rule. 

Doesn't sound especially realistic or smart - but then neither was the invasion of Ukraine. JL 

Allison Quinn reports in The Daily Beast:

Vladimir Putin and his cronies already have a plan in place to flee the country once things go sideways, a former aide to the Russian president claimed. Putin’s inner circle first considered evacuation to China, Abbas Gallyamov said, but later thought better of it, fearing “cooperation” from the Chinese was slim, especially since they despise “losers.” Now, the focus has shifted to Argentina or Venezuela, with Putin ally Igor Sechin overseeing an evacuation plan for the latter. High-ranking officials have begun buying real estate and getting residency rights in Venezuela. Those lower-ranking in the Russian government are seeking residency in Ecuador, Paraguay, and Argentina

The Ukrainians Push Front Line To Within 5 Miles of Kreminna, Gateway To Donbas

The Ukrainian troops are cold, damp - and determined. They are pushing the Russians back and both the Russians and they know it. 

The winter hardening of the ground has happened sooner than expected, providing the Ukrainians, who now have more armor, with greater options for mobility to attack. JL 

Isabelle Khurshudyan reports in the Washington Post:

A commander manning one of Ukraine’s forward-most positions zoomed in on his tablet to show how Kyiv’s forces have advanced within five miles of Kreminna, an occupied stronghold for the Russian military and gateway into eastern Luhansk. “We’ve pushed them back. Now we just need to take their logistical routes. As soon as they lose that, they’ll have to abandon their positions. They won’t be able to bring in reinforcements or ammunition.” A drop in temperature has made the battle ground firmer and more favorable. “The enemy (mobiks) get pushed to the front, without any training, as meat.”

Ukraine "Somehow" Now Has Polish Surface-to-Air Defense Missiles

No formal agreement between the countries has been announced, but this effective addition to Ukraine's air defense underscores Poland's continuing commitment to the Ukrainian cause, as the Poles are well aware of the risks entailed in living under Russian domination. JL 

Emma Helfrich reports in The Drive:

A Polish S-125 Newa SC surface-to-air missile system, a modernized variant of the Soviet-era SA-3 Goa, is in Ukrainian forces' possession. Neither Poland nor Ukraine had previously announced the transfer of this system, making its appearance unexpected. The missiles perform within the altitude range of 65 feet (20 meters) to 59,055 feet (18,000 meters) and at distances of 15 miles (25 kilometers). The S-125 Newa SC won’t be the answer to all of Ukraine’s air defense needs. (But) there is plenty for the system to shoot at

How Leased Robots Are Helping Improve Holiday Deliveries

Leased robots used for sorting, loading and stocking shelves are helping logistics firms get purchases to customers in time for the holidays, especially in the face of ongoing workforce shortages. 

The leased robots save companies on hiring and maintenance, but they do require advance notice to the suppliers. JL 

Angus Loten reports in the Wall Street Journal:

Logistics firms looking for extra help during the holidays are leasing temporary package-handling robots. Leased robots can be added to existing fleets of warehouse, distribution and fulfillment center robots at any time to support a jump in demand. The robots are increasingly being used for picking up and sorting packages, receiving and unloading them, moving heavy payloads and replenishing stock shelves. Leased robots can be returned to their manufacturers when online shopping orders cool down after the seasonal rush. “We have over 10,000 robots contracted in the field.”

Why Fighting Is Intensifying Around Kherson As Russians Retreat Further

Multiple reports reveal that fighting has again intensified across the Dnipro River near Kherson city as the Ukrainians find Russian troops have retreated even further south of the river's east bank. 

The Russians are trying to get out of range from Ukrainian artillery, while the Ukrainians, perceiving continued Russian disarray, are pressing their advantage in trained troops, weapons and winter equipment. JL   

Julian Borger reports in The Guardian:

Despite predictions the conflict would slow down in the winter, fighting is escalating in southern Kherson as Ukrainian forces seek to keep the Russians on the retreat towards Crimea. “It has been machine guns lately, not artillery.” Nova Kakovka is a strategic point where Ukrainian and Russian forces now face each other across a narrow part of the Dnipro and a hydroelectric dam. Retreating Russians who arrived in Nova Kakhovka in the past few weeks have been nervous and aggressive. There have been multiple reports of Ukrainian special forces raids across the Dnipro since the fall of Kherson.

The Reason Ukraine Is Escalating Its Offensive In Donbas As Winter Sets In

The ground has frozen more quickly than expected, allowing armored vehicles and artillery at a faster pace and over a wider range of territory. 

This gives Ukraine an advantage as Russian units remain undermanned, underequipped and poorly trained. Despite having dug miles of trenches near cities and paved roads, the Russians do not appear capable of responding to rapid attacks across fields and other unprepared terrain. JL 

Matthew Bigg reports in the New York Times:

Ukrainian forces have escalated a counteroffensive in the east, aided by plunging temperatures that have frozen the ground and enabled them to use vehicles that for weeks had been bogged down in mud. Capture of Kreminna, Svatove and Starobilsk would extend gains Ukrainian forces made in the Kharkiv region and enable them to advance toward the Russian border. It would also give them control of a triangle of roads that provide access to Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk. The main hospital in the city of Luhansk is full of wounded Russian soldiers

Ukrainian Women Are Signing Up To Be Drone Pilots

Drone piloting makes a great deal of sense as an MOS ( military occupational specialty) for women because it requires intelligence, technological savvy and steady nerves more than physical strength. 

That women are enthusiastically signing up - and that the military recognizes the need and the fit further reinforces the understanding that no nation, especially one under attack, can afford to waste its human capital. JL 

Ashley Westerman reports in NPR:

The Female Pilots of Ukraine is the country's first school dedicated to solely teaching women — both civilians as well as those serving in Ukraine's security forces — how to fly drones. Ukraine has many women in the military but they rarely work as drone pilots. "Our military sector needs many, many pilots. We need them now." Women from all walks of life are signing up for classes — models, journalists, artists, marketing professionals. "80% of our students want to go to [the front line]."

When Will Ukrainian Ground Be Frozen Enough For Tanks To Attack?

According to engineering and environmental experts, probably by the end of December. JL 

OSINT69 reports in Twitter, image Sergey Pivovarov, Reuters:

At Svatove, the average temperature for December is -3C. We get a frozen ground depth of about 40 cm by the end of the month. There needs to be to be about 15cm of frozen ground for a heavy truck, more so for a tank but less than 40cm. So in Svatove the ground will most definitely be hard enough by the end of the month. Other factors such as snow cover do affect the freezing depth but not very much as long as the air temperature stays below freezing. No snow means faster freezing

Price Caps And New Sanctions Cause "Notable" Drop In Russian Oil Exports

Follow the (decline of) money...JL 

Anna Hirtenstein and Joe Wallace report in the Wall Street Journal:

Russian crude-oil exports have declined markedly since new sanctions and a price cap came into force. Russia's daily barrels exported fell by nearly 50%. Shipments from the country’s Black Sea and Baltic ports accounted for most of the fall. Seaborne exports fell by nearly 500,000 barrels per day on Tuesday, a roughly 16% fall from the November average. It's a notable drop rather than a blip. “Russian exports have been moving steadily up until now."

Why Sending Higher End Weapons To Ukraine Now Will Shorten the War

Making it harder for Russia to rebuild its forces by supplying Ukraine with more and better weapons is likely to be the optimal means by which Russia can be forced to face the futility of continuing the invastion and the war shortened. JL 

Max Boot reports in the Washington Post:

We can win a battle of production lines with Russia (the U.S. economy is 14 times larger), but we should be doing everything possible to minimize the cost and length of the conflict so that we don’t have to. If you think the supply strains are bad today, imagine what they will look like if the war is still raging at its current tempo a year from now. The best solution to help Ukraine win the war faster (is) by providing it with higher-end weapons systems

Russia Has Run Out of Iranian Shahed Suicide Drones

Ukrainian air defense forces have not reported sighting Iranian Shahed drones in over three weeks. They believe Russia has used up the first shipment and that additional deliveries may be delayed as Iran faces increasingly violent internal protests. 

The very cold weather in Ukraine may also be affecting the drones' performance and Ukrainian attacks on Iranian trainers in Crimea as well as its increasingly effective air defenses may also explain the drones' absence. JL

Howard Altman reports in The Drive:

As of Tuesday, Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones had not appeared over the skies of Ukraine since the middle of last month. “It’s been three weeks since Ukrainian air defenses have seen the loitering drones. The first shipment received by the occupiers is [gone], they ran out of them.” It's possible that the frigid conditions in Ukraine during winter also had an impact on their use. Icing conditions and chill may be beyond the drones' performance envelope. But Iran is also under a great deal of internal and international pressure as the result of domestic protests and global concern about its arms deals with Russia.

How VCs' 'Suspension of Disbelief' Enabled FTX - And Its Collapse

As the FTX post-mortem continues, issues being raised include the role of sophisticated VCs in funding a company which had - especially in hindsight - such glaring governance issues. 

The funding environment - with a lot of money chasing few opportunities - fueled a 'suspension of disbelief' so VCs trying to put funds to work did want to risk being excluded for asking difficult questions. The larger concern is whether this is a lesson learned or - after Theranos, FTX, etc - this will continue to be considered just a cost of doing business. JL 

Fran Velasquez reports in Coindesk:

In the case of FTX, the red flags VCs missed may have in part been a “byproduct of the funding environment,” which made it easier for crypto startups to receive early-stage funding with "extremely low interest rates," as "tons of capital" flooded into the VC market. "When you have so many more bidders than opportunities, that moves the price up and [it] shortens diligence time [and] the amount of negotiation and leverage that VCs have in those conversations.” Discerning investors were turned off by the lack of oversight at FTX's board, (but) "VCs who were asking for that weren’t getting into the round." FTX’s collapse may address broader issues of “oversight, compliance [and] auditing”

US Plans "Dramatic" Increase In Ammunition For Ukraine and Its Own Use

Congress has appropriated funds for the US to triple artillery ammunition production in the expectation that Ukraine's battle against Russian invasion will continue "indefinitely." JL 

Joe Gould reports in Defense News:

The U.S. Army is seeking a “dramatic” ramp up in monthly production of 155mm artillery shells. “Funding is already in place, contracts are underway to triple 155mm production. There’s funding on the Hill, in the supplemental, to more than double that again." The push comes as the U.S. has supplied Ukraine with more than 1 million artillery rounds, and as Pentagon officials see the war in Ukraine continuing indefinitely. the Army is paying to expand production at its ammunition plants. Army officials also aim to contract with defense firms outside the U.S. for artillery shells for Ukraine. The army is also doubling production for the precision munitions.

Russian State-Owned, 2nd Largest Bank Hit By "Unprecedented" Cyberattack

Although Ukraine has not admitted it is responsible for the cyberattack on Russia's VTB bank - and it may not be, directly - it is interesting how forces allied with Ukraine are increasingly turning Russian tactics and weapons against it. Effectively. JL 

Yahoo Finance reports:

Russia's No. 2 State-owned VTB bank said it was repelling the distributed denial of service (DDoS) attack, in which hackers attempt to flood a network with unusually high volumes of data traffic in order to paralyse it. VTB said the majority of attacks had come from abroad, but that it was particularly concerned by traffic from Russian IP addresses. It said it would hand over all identified Russian IP addresses to law enforcement. "The bank's technological infrastructure is under an unprecedented cyber attack."

Russia Shocked War Opponents Actually Shoot Back: Airfields, Bakhmut, Kreminna

The New York Times and other pearl-clutching, victim-blaming western news organizations seem to worry more about the threat of Ukrainians defending themselves creatively than Russian war crimes.  

Yeah, imagine the nerve of those Ukrainians. JL 

Mark Sumner reports in Daily Kos:

A Ukrainian drone hysteria has half of Russia staring suspiciously at the skies. The exchange between the two countries is still hugely lopsided, but Russians seem shocked at the idea that someone might actually shoot back.In addition to attacks on Russian airfields, Ukraine is  “flooding” Bakhmut with reinforcements, including Special Forces units at the forefront of counteroffensives in Kharkiv and Kherson. (And) as fighting continues along the P66 highway, Ukrainian forces in the woods to the south are reported to be even closer to Kreminna. 

Crypto Hypocrites Demanding 'Freedom" Now Blaming Govt For Not Regulating FTX

After years of screaming that the government was interfering with the natural wealth creation opportunity represented by cryptocurrencies, these same crypto advocates are now whining that the government should have regulated FTX to prevent its failure. 

The reality, of course, is that crypto was established to evade taxes and oversight, though the risks are now becoming apparent. JL 

James Surowiecki reports in The Atlantic:

More than mere hypocrisy is at work in the case of crypto. Advocates are trying to create the impression that Bankman-Fried got away with his scheme thanks to regulatory failures, because they’re worried that FTX’s demise will end up tarring the entire industry as a scam. What happened at FTX shows that self-regulation is not going to protect investors. The company’s collapse is damning for crypto because it demonstrates how fragile these supposed multibillion-dollar businesses can be. FTX fell apart not because of fraud, but because a sell-off in the value of its fake currency.

How Ukrainian Air Defenses And Winter Limiting Russia's Ability To Continue Fighting

Improved Ukrainian air defense and Russia's reliance on sub-optimal visual guidance as well as unguided 'dumb' munitions are making it difficult for Russia to mount air support for ground attacks. 

This, in turn, reduces the chances of success for Russia's continued invasion of Ukraine because these handicaps increase the risk for Russian troops and limit their ability to prevail. JL 

Isabel Van Brugen reports in Newsweek:

In recent months, the number of sudden attacks by Russian tactical combat aircraft over Ukraine has "reduced significantly." Russian attacks are being limited by Ukrainian air defenses and the colder winter weather. Putin's air force is now conducting tens of missions daily, after losing more than 60 fixed-wing aircraft since the conflict began. In March, Russia was flying 300 missions a day in Ukraine. "With Russia's ground attack tactics reliant on visual identification and unguided munitions, the Russian air force will continue a low rate of ground attacks through the winter weather."

Ukraine Drones Hit Russian Airfields For 2nd Day As Putin Rages At His Military

Drone attacks suspected of originating with Ukraine's military struck targets deep inside Russia for a second day, humiliating the Kremlin and raising serious questions about the efficacy of Russian air defenses. 

Putin is reportedly furious and has threatened to punish the Russian officers 'responsible' for failing to defend the bases,  letting the attacks succeed. JL 

Jamey Keaton reports in AP via ABC:

A fire broke out at an airport in Russia’s Kursk region bordering Ukraine after a drone hit the facility. In a second incident, an industrial plant 80 kilometers (50 miles) from the Ukrainian border was also targeted by drones. The attacks on Russian bases — more than 500 kilometers (300 miles) from the border with Ukraine — were deeply embarrassing and exposed the vulnerability of some of Russia’s most strategic military sites, raising questions about the effectiveness of their air defenses.

How Cold Weather Gear and Equipment Give Ukraine A Winter Advantage Over Russia

NATO countries have been sending cold weather gear to Ukraine since the weather began to turn in October. The country has provided most units with rudimentary but effective stoves for their tents and dugouts. 

But new Russian conscripts are reportedly having to buy their own winter clothing, sleeping bags and tents. Discomfort could be a crucial factor. JL 

Dan Sabbagh reports in The Guardian:

A key element of the winter struggle will be who has the best kit. Donations have been pouring in from western allies. Canada said it would send 500,000 items of winter clothing, Germany 100,000 warm jackets, Britain 25,000 full sets, with Nordic countries also contributing. The real questions come for the Russians. Russian media are full of stories of newly mobilised conscripts in the frontline having to buy their own thermal gear and sleeping bags, even stoves for basic heating.  “It is easy to become demoralised in the cold."

The Reason Record Numbers of Ukrainian Women Have Joined the Military

To save their country - and to change society. JL 

Nicholas Kristof reports in the New York Times:

Almost 60,000 women are now in the Ukrainian armed forces, some filling combat roles. The determination of Ukrainian women to fight Russians, or spy on them from behind enemy lines or raise money for the troops reflects a determination of Ukrainians, male and female alike, to sacrifice for their country. The involvement of women is a reminder that half the human resources in any society are female. Harness the potential of half the population, and any nation will gain an edge. Half of all new small businesses since the invasion were started by women.  “This will change the role of women in society.”

As the Winter Ground Freezes, Ukraine's Offensive Options Expand

As the mud freezes, Ukraine can attack across previously impassable fields, opening up new corridors for advance in multiple directions from Donbas to Kherson. JL 

Daily Kos reports, image Anatolii Stepanov, AFP:

Russia “shapes the battlefield” by leveling it. Ukraine does so by systematically cutting supply lines until the Russian garrison has no choice but to retreat or risk entrapment. Ukraine's Kreminna approach is symbiotic with the push toward Starobilsk. With Kreminna liberated, Ukraine would cut Russia’s ability to reinforce Svatove. Success at Kreminna will put Severodonetsk back on the menu. If Russia is truly abandoning Zaporizhia due to risk of encirclement Melitopol is the Starobilsk of southern Ukraine. Liberate it, and Russia can’t supply anything for hundreds of kilometers around it.(And) there are reports Russia has withdrawn from much of the territory south of the Dnipro

Why Russian Attacks On Bakhmut and Ukraine Infrastructure Are Failing

Russia's infantry attacks on Bakhmut and its missile attacks on Ukraine's utility infrastructure are both based on false strategic assumptions.  

The attacks on Bakhmut assume that 'dumb' Soviet-era artillery and human cannon fodder can overwhelm Ukrainian forces equipped with better intelligence, more accurate technology and decidedly superior morale and leadership. That is why the Russian attacks continue to fail. The same holds true for Russia's spiteful missile assaults on civilians and infrastructure. Ukraine, as a technologically advanced modern state can repair the Russian damage within days, causing Russia to waste declining resources in vain attacks on an socio-economically superior foe. JL

Phillips O'Brien reports in his newsletter:

Wars are rarely won by what one side has when it starts, they are won by what can be made/procured after it starts. In Bakhmut, the Russians are the ones on the offensive and have to expose their forces more. Though the fighting around Bakhmut is horrible, the Ukrainians prefer the Russians continue these wasteful attacks rather than defend rationally. Russian attacks on Ukraine energy are inconsistent, allowing too much time for Ukraine to adjust and repair. Ukraine is a progressive industrial state. Its specialists are able to restore energy within several days after the blackouts. Ukraine’s advantage is in accuracy and range. They need less ammunition to do equivalent damage.

Explosions Hit Military Airfields Deep Inside Russia From Which Missiles Launched

It was a matter of time before Ukrainians found a way to strike at the airfields from which the heavy bombers which launch missile attacks onkraine's civilians, energy sources and infrastructure.

The two Russian bases hit are airfields from which heavy bombers fly to strike Ukrainian targets. That Ukraine has hit them - hundreds of miles from the border - despite NATO prohibitions on providing such systems, suggests the Ukrainians have now developed weapons capable of hitting strategic targets in Russia and are not afraid to use them. JL

The BBC reports and Andrew Roth reports in the Guardian:

A fuel tanker exploded killing three and injuring six in an airfield near the city Ryazan, south-east of Moscow. Another two people have been hurt in an explosion at an airfield in the Saratov region. Long-range Russian strategic bombers are based at the Engels airbase in the Saratov region, planes capable of firing cruise missiles used in strikes on Ukraine. Both areas are hundreds of kilometres from the Ukrainian border, raising the possibility that Kyiv has found a way to target Russia’s long-range bombers used in attacks against Ukraine. The bases host Tu-95 bombers that have taken part in cruise missile strikes against Ukraine..

Should Disney Leader Whose Hand-Picked Successor Failed Choose Again?

A Stanford study concluded that most hand-picked leaders of major companies chosen primarily by their predecessors underperformed the S&P. 

Disney is no exception. The problem is that while boards can be influenced by charismatic leaders, the CEO annointing his or her successor may be more concerned about their legacy, pet initiatives or personal relationships, clouding their judgement about what is best for the future. The prudent process may be to consult current or former leaders about succession, but not to give them a deciding vote. JL

Ben Cohen reports in the Wall Street Journal:

Succession was the failure of Mr. Iger’s first reign. He delayed his retirement four times. Then he anointed Bob Chapek and watched him flop. Now he’s back to clean up a mess of his own making. Are internal candidates ready, or will it be an external hire? Is it better to have CEO experience or Disney experience? The bigger question is how much involvement any CEO should have in this process. CEOs have too many competing interests and conflicting incentives. A study of the largest companies run by handpicked successors found that most underperformed the S&P 500 between 2000 and 2011. “The guy who gets you lost in the woods isn’t the right guy to find your way out.”

Ukrainian Special Forces Land In Raid On Dnipro East Bank Near Kherson

The question is whether this was a reconnaissance mission, a raid with limited objectives or a precursor to a larger, more permanent offensive. Russian troops on the east bank of the Dnipro close to recently liberated Kherson are thought to be thin on the ground. JL

Thomas Harding reports in The National News:

Ukrainian forces have breached the east bank of the Dnipro river for the first time and raised a flag. Specialist troops from the Carlson volunteer special air intelligence unit crossed the 1km-wide river in fast boats. If Ukraine forces are able to exploit their success and further breach Russian lines it could prove problematic for Moscow’s commanders in the Kherson region, which is the gateway to the annexed Crimea peninsula. This was the first time the blue and yellow flag has flown on the east bank since the invasion, suggesting it could be either a precursor to establishing a strong presence or a one-off daring raid.

Russia Estimated To Be Losing 50 Killed A Day Around Bakhmut

Russia apparently believes it can continue to lose 1,000 killed in action per month around Bakhmut, though whether that is realistic or simply an indication of uninformed indifference will only become clear in the future. JL 

The Kyiv Independent reports:

Russian forces are losing over 50 killed in action near the strategic town of Bakhmut in eastern Donetsk Oblast daily. "That's only killed in action, plus there are as many wounded.” The situation in the Bakhmut sector remains "tense but controlled."  Russian troops will not be able to encircle the Ukrainian forces. Russian efforts near Bakhmut indicate that Russia has "fundamentally failed to learn from previous high casualty campaigns."

How the Ukrainian Advance On Kreminna Is Reminiscent of Lyman's Capture

Steady, intelligent...deadly. JL 

Mark Sumner reports in Daily Kos:

The situation in both Kreminna and Svatove looks a lot like Lyman. For the two months that have now passed since Lyman was liberated, Ukraine has continued to free up villages in the extreme east of Kharkiv and in western Luhansk. The situation at Kreminna not only looks a lot like Ukraine’s approach to taking Lyman, it looks a lot like the final days before Lyman was liberated. Once Ukraine takes Kreminna they will be positioned on that major highway with clear supply lines to the west. And that road doesn’t just run north toward Svatove, it also runs south to Severodonetsk.

It's Not Your Imagination: Amazon Shopping and Shipping Has Gotten Worse

Amazon search results are now driven by advertisers who pay for position and 'brand conquest,' which permits alternatives to be posted even when a consumer types in a specific brand name. 

And when was the last time anyone received an Amazon package overnight despite having to pay more for Amazon Prime membership? JL

Geoffrey Fowler reports in the Washington Post:

Amazon is becoming a tacky strip mall filled with neon signs pointing you in all the wrong directions. Today advertisers are driving the experience. Amazon has pioneered an online advertising business that feeds sponsored information designed to deceive. Amazon now uses search results to push its own in-house products ahead of others with higher ratings. The FTC received a formal petition complaining that Amazon misleads consumers because of how it labels sponsored results. “There is a very clear tension between advertising and customer experience.”

Many Russians Are Freezing In Their Homes Because Utility Workers Were Mobilized

Thoughtless, indiscriminate mobilization of essential workers in Russia is now causing additional problems for the government. 

As winter has set in, many localities report that their utility workers were mobilized, meaning that heating maintenance and repair cannot be conducted as temperatures dip below zero. JL 

Chris O reports in Twitter:

People across Russia are freezing in their homes in temperatures as low as -38°C because utility workers have been mobilised , even after the end of mobilization, hindering repair and maintenance. Problems with heating have been reported across the country, exacerbated by lack of engineering personnel. Residents of Novosibirsk were left without heating in November in temperatures of -30°C. 270 apartment blocks housing 70,000 people in Abakan faced a similar problem. At Artemovsky, a heating breakdown lasted several days in temperatures of -38°C. Despite being engineers, most of the mobilised workers were used as infantry. Some were forgotten by their commanders during the retreat from Kherson, resulting in capture by the Ukrainians.

Ukraine Advises Civilians On Dnipro's East Bank To Evacuate, Signalling New Action

Could be a feint, attempting to lure the Russians into another trap as they did in Kharkiv and Kherson. 

Or it could be real, given that Ukrainian special forces have apparently already landed at various spots on the east bank. JL 

Marc Santora reports in the New York Times:

Less than a month after driving Russian forces from the city of Kherson on the west bank of the Dnipro River, the Ukrainian authorities on Saturday issued an urgent call for civilians to evacuate Russian-occupied areas on the eastern bank, suggesting that Kyiv’s military might press its offensive and try to establish a foothold across the waterway. as the ground hardens and fighting intensifies, the Russian held area east of Kherson city and the Dnipro River was not well defended. Russia remains mostly on the defensive