How the Unseasonably Warm Ukrainian Winter Has Slowed the Kreminna Battle

The unseasonably warm Ukrainian winter this year has been beneficial strategically as it reduced European need for Russian natural gas as well as tamping down potential dissent. It has also made life in Ukraine more bearable by negating much of the impact of Russian missile attacks on energy infrastructure. 

But it has also made it more difficult for the Ukrainians to launch winter attacks on vulnerable Russians in Kreminna and other locales. This is due to effect of the warm-ish weather on soil conditions as the muddy ground has not hardened sufficiently to support vehicles or troops trying to attack off road. The Russians attempted to do so anyway at Vuhledar this week - and were slaughtered. JL

Mark Sumner reports in Daily Kos:

In a lot of ways, the extremely warm winter across Europe is very good. It’s making it easier for most of Europe to eliminate the need for Russian natural gas and destroying Vladimir Putin’s economy, (while) greatly reducing the misery caused by Russia’s attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure. But getting Ukrainian forces into Kreminna (is thwarted) as weather conditions turned every field and every dirt road into an impassable swamp. Which makes sitting still frustrating, but the only answer that doesn’t involve watching Ukrainian forces suffer the kind of disaster Russia just had at Vuhledar.

A quick visit to Kreminna this morning. After Ukraine liberated Izyum in September, Russian forces fell back to Kreminna and Svatove. Recognizing that this area was critical to protecting supply lines running 50km further east through Starobilsk, Russia made this area one of the largest sites of deployment for freshly mobilized forces, dropping tens of thousands of poorly trained troops in Ukraine’s way. Even so, Ukraine made good progress over the next month, closing to within a few kilometers of both cities, liberating dozens of small towns and villages, and clearing out Russian ambushes to solidify control over main highways.

But even as Ukrainian forces reached a position where an assault on either city seemed possible, weather conditions turned every field and every dirt road into the region into an impassable swamp. At Svatove, Ukraine can bring forces down the highway from Kupyansk, but those forces remain under artillery fire from Russian forces over the ridge to the east. Attempts to move toward Svatove from the west have resulting in a series of back and forth battles that have served only to level those locations while leaving neither side with a notable tactical advantage.

And then there’s Kreminna ...

Kreminna area. Open image in another tab for a larger view.

At Kreminna, Ukrainian forces worked for some time to secure Dibrova and Kuzmyne, but attempts to advance from Kuzmyne are reportedly hampered by a sea of mud. Tanks and other tracked vehicles can make progress, but only so slowly that they are subject to pounding by artillery and RPGs. Plus it’s difficult for infantry or wheeled vehicles to move at all.

On the south, Ukrainian forces have been able to work their way through the more solid ground in the dense forests and even reach the outer streets of Kreminna. But the nature of this area means that it’s difficult to maintain unit cohesion, that ambushes are a constant threat, and that bringing up armor in force is nearly impossible. North of the city, Ukraine still holds the highway near Chervonopopivka, may have pushed Russia out of Holykove, and can prevent Russia from moving troops between the Svatove area and Kreminna area without a long detour. But it’s simply not enough.

The reason for all this mess can be neatly summed up in the Kreminna forecast from weather.com. 

Every night, the temperature dips slightly below freezing. Every day it’s back above freezing again. It’s been this way for weeks. The mixture of snow, rain, sun and middling temperatures is a recipe for a miserable half-frozen soup that simply makes it impossible to conduct travel off paved highways.

In a lot of ways, the extremely warm winter across Europe is a very good thing. It’s not just making it easier for most of Europe to eliminate the need for Russian natural gas and destroying Vladimir Putin’s economy, the warm weather is greatly reducing the misery caused by Russia’s attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure. But right now, getting Ukrainian forces into Kreminna means either forcing them down a narrow highway from the north (not good), sending them through the woods in small numbers (not good), or making them swim for it from the west (not good). Which makes sitting still for the moment frustrating, but just about the only answer that doesn’t involve watching Ukrainian forces suffer the kind of disaster Russia just had at Vuhledar.