How Ukraine Is Defining the Key Goals Of Its Imminent Counteroffensive
Ukraine's top goals for its counteroffensive are to e-seize the initiative, reclaim occupied territory, further degrade Russian military capabilities - and destroy Russian morale.
Everything else will take care of itself. JL
Mick Ryan reports in War In the Future:
First,
Ukraine wants to re-seize the initiative in this war. The Ukrainians will be keen to regain their battlefield advantage, demonstrating to
Russians that nothing they do can destroy Ukrainian resolve. The Ukrainians will want to take back territory and continue degrading the Russian army. Destroying Russian morale will be an important objective, to demonstrate to the Russians - from Putin to
the bottom of their army - that they cannot win this war. The Ukrainian armed forces
will be hoping to surprise, generate shock and spread the
word to the Russians that their days
in Ukraine are numbered. The Ukrainian offensives will also ensure that both western politicians and populations support continued aid.
Over the past two months, Russian forces have
undertaken a series of thrusts in eastern Ukraine to capture territory
and weaken Ukraine's armed forces.
In regions around Kreminna, Bakhmut and Avdiivka they have made some gains, but at high cost in soldiers, equipment and munitions.
In other locations, such as Vuhledar, they have made almost no progress while suffering catastrophic defeats against well-prepared Ukrainian defensive positions.
Soon,
it will be the Ukrainians' turn to resume offensive operations. It is
important to explore the purpose of these offensives because those
planning them will have to balance multiple political, strategic and
military imperatives.
Purpose in these
circumstances is vital. It provides the starting point for strategy, and
operational planning. But it also ensures that those who will
participate in these offensives understand why they do so.
Soldiers
will always follow orders. But it is purpose that inspires them,
provides the foundation for extra exertions and often is the reason why
so many offer their "last full measure of devotion" on the battlefield.
What are the elements of purpose in Ukraine's forthcoming offensives?
Reseizing initiative, maintaining hope
First,
Ukraine wants to re-seize the initiative in this war. Their Kharkiv and
Kherson offensives grasped the initiative from the Russians and forced
them onto the defensive over winter. However, for a variety of reasons —
including slow arrival of western support and the injection of Russian
mobilised troops — Ukrainian momentum seeped away over the Christmas-New
Year period.
Now, with the Russians generating
momentum with their Easter attacks, the Ukrainians will be keen to
reverse it and regain their battlefield advantage, demonstrating to
Russians that nothing they do can destroy Ukrainian resolve.
In this battle of wills, destroying Russian morale will be an important objective.
Related
to this is the desire to demonstrate to the Russians — from Putin to
the bottom of their army — that they cannot win this war. Defeat always
causes problems with morale and cohesion. The Ukrainian armed forces
will be hoping to achieve surprise, generate shock and, in the process,
destroy Russia.
Ukraine will want to spread the
word to the entire Russian invasion and occupation force that their days
in Ukraine are numbered. This psychological aspect of offensive
operations is very important.
The Ukrainians also
want to take back their territory. This is an obvious and important
goal, and one Zelenskyy frequently refers to in his speeches.
Large
parts of eastern and southern Ukraine remain under the oppressive fist
of Russian occupation. It is hardly an enlightened Russian presence.
Instead, it provides the foundation for the kidnapping of Ukrainian
children, the subjugation of civilians and press-ganging of Ukrainians
to fight against their fellow countrymen.
For those
in Ukrainian areas still occupied by the Russians, the Ukrainian
offensives will provide a ray of hope that their turn for liberation
will come soon. Such hope is vital as they look forward to return of
Ukrainian forces.
The fight for justice
Another
obvious purpose of the offensives is to continue degrading the Russian
Army. The Ukrainians will want to destroy as much of the Russian army as
possible, although this will be subordinate to recapturing territory.
The
Ukrainian offensives will also be a vital message to the West that the
Ukrainian armed forces are able employers of the military assistance
provided over the last few months. If they can show that they can absorb
and use it quickly and competently, more aid will flow.
And,
like the Kharkiv and Kherson offensives, there will be some hope that
the Ukrainian offensives will reignite western attention on the war and
ensure that both politicians and populations support continued aid.
Since
February 2022, the people of Ukraine have endured rape, murder, the
abduction of their children, destruction of their cities, the death of
their sons and daughters in battle, and deliberate attempts by Russia to
eradicate Ukrainian culture, symbols and nationhood.
Every
Ukrainian I have spoken to wants some measure of justice for the
horrors visited upon them. The forthcoming Ukrainian offensives are
another opportunity to free more of their citizens from Russian rule,
and to again show the Russians that their form of vicious, authoritarian
government is not welcome in Ukraine.
The
offensives launched in the next few months will be heartbreakingly
bloody, and may not be the final blow that destroys the Russian Army in
Ukraine.
But if the West holds its nerve, and the
Ukrainians steadfastly apply their fighting power against the Russians
while taking back large swathes of land, the offensives may be the
beginning of the end of this war.
As a Partner and Co-Founder of Predictiv and PredictivAsia, Jon specializes in management performance and organizational effectiveness for both domestic and international clients. He is an editor and author whose works include Invisible Advantage: How Intangilbles are Driving Business Performance. Learn more...
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