Ukrainian Counterattack Exposes Russia's Vulnerable Fixation On Bakhmut

Bakhmut still holds but the Ukrainians are also beginning probing attacks elsewhere along the Donbas front, looking for - and apparently finding - weaknesses in the Russian line.

While it is too soon to expect the major counteroffensive most in Ukraine and the west are waiting for, this suggests that the decision to hold there is creating opportunities elsewhere - as expected by everyone but the Russians. JL

Mark Sumner reports in Daily Kos:

Ukrainian forces reportedly launched a counteroffensive that pushed Russian troops back over a kilometer and placed control over the town of Mayorsk, which has been under Russian occupation for weeks, back into dispute. Russia can’t afford a major breakthrough at this location because that highway through Mayorsk allows Ukraine to threaten Russian occupation over a whole series of cities, including some much bigger than Bakhmut. the Ukrainian move at Mayorsk will surely remind Russia that there is more to this area of the front than Bakhmut. Also, unlike the Russians at Vuhledar, Ukraine apparently still understands how to launch a successful attack.

On Thursday, Russian forces, after multiple failures, occupied at least part of the village of Dubovo-Vasylivka northwest of Bakhmut. This once again increases the pressure on efforts to maintain control of the road that leads out of the city through Khromove. Russian forces also managed to capture more of the northern city, and a renewed press from the south brought the Russian troops at least two blocks further into Bakhmut in the south.

Bakhmut area down to Toresk. Open image in another tab for a larger view.

On Friday, the Ukrainian general staff reported that Ukrainian forces had repelled a Russian attack on Dubovo-Vasylivka; however, Wagner Group has published some images showing their forces in an area that appears to be the eastern edge of this village. So “disputed” seems to be the proper call.

But the reason the map looks so different today is that it’s been expanded to pull in an area 20 kilometers south of Bakhmut, along the highway east of the city of Toresk. Along this road, Ukrainian forces reportedly launched a counteroffensive that pushed Russian troops back over a kilometer and placed control over the town of Mayorsk, which has been under Russian occupation for weeks, back into dispute.

Fighting in and around Bakhmut remains heavy, with reports that Russia has brought more heavy equipment into the area since Ukraine pulled back from the eastern side of the city. At this point, Russian forces likely occupy more than half of the city.

When it comes to the counterattack at Mayorsk, Russian sources are claiming this Ukrainian advance has now been repelled, though they admit that “some positions have not been recovered.” In making this advance Ukrainian forces seem to have forced a series of trenches recently dug by Russian troops in the area. Fighting also appears to be ongoing at two small villages—Shumy and Pivdenne—just south of Mayorsk.

The lines in this area appear to be manned by mobilized forces for the DNR rather than either Wagner or regular Russian military, most of which has been dedicated to the assault on Bakhmut and the continued assaults on Vuhlendar, another 90 km to the southwest. It’s possible that the extended effort to capture Bakhmut has created a weak spot in the Russian lines along this highway. 

One thing is certain: Russia can’t afford a major breakthrough at this location because that highway through Mayorsk allows Ukraine to threaten Russian occupation over a whole series of cities, including some much bigger than Bakhmut.

Cities south of Bakhmut.

Mayorsk is an inner suburb of the city of Horlivka. That city has a population of near 300,000 and has been controlled by Russian occupation forces since 2014. That means the move toward Mayorsk isn’t just recovering a small town that was lost to Russian occupation some time ago; it presents the possibility that Ukraine could break through into an area that was part of the DNR at the war’s outset.

Is it too early to be making much of what is, after all, a single small thrust toward a single small town; one that Russia claims to have already taken back? Yes, absolutely. But it’s notable that Russian sources are reporting that in response to Ukrainian forces entering Mayorsk, they have shelled other villages in the areas. This would seem to indicate they’ve not been all that successful in halting the Ukrainian advance.

At the very least, the Ukrainian move at Mayorsk will surely remind Russia that there is more to this area of the front than Bakhmut. Also, unlike the Russians at Vuhledar, Ukraine apparently still understands how to launch a successful attack. It’s good to see that the Ukrainian forces are still probing for weakness in the Russian line rather than just being reactive to attacks on Bakhmut.

This morning, the Ukrainian general staff issued the usual list of towns where attacks had been thwarted and locations subject to Russian shelling. However, they also jumped into a discussion of the fight within a fight: the war of words between Wagner Group owner Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Russian military.

For weeks now, Prigozhin has been slamming the military for failing to supply his collection of prison escapees and war crimers with sufficient ammunition. He has openly criticised Russian military leaders, especially Gen. Valery Gerasimov, and the ability of Russian soldiers in a way that would have netted the average Russian a few decades shoveling permafrost in a gulag. Prigozhin hasn’t been locked up, but he also doesn’t seem to be getting any support from Putin or anyone else.

In the Friday broadcast from the Ukrainian military, it was clear that Ukraine is relishing this schism in Russian forces. In fact, they’re looking forward to watching Wagner collapse from a lack of support. That includes reporting that Wagner has suffered “significant losses” in the last few weeks and that “most of them have perished on the fields of Bakhmut.”

“It is clear that these processes are leading to the end of their inglorious history in the medium term.”

Yes, please. But can’t we make that the short term? Or immediately?